Dustin Poirier (James Law/HeavyMMA)
Breaking down the odds for Tuesday’s card in Virginia
HeavyMMA’s new CREDITS wagering feature is back with a look at the odds for UFC on Fuel TV: Korean Zombie vs. Poirier.
Writer Nate Lawson and writer/editor Matt Erickson this week take a look at the UFC’s third card on the Fuel TV cable network, which takes place Tuesday at the Patriot Center in Fairfax, Va.
We refresh you on the rules for our prognosticators at the bottom, and we give you the lines for the fights the boys have to work with. Take a look and see where their (fictional) money is going this week. Then stay tuned for the next installment of CREDITS, which will come at you at the end of the week for the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix Finals in San Jose, Calif.
Chan Sung Jung (+265) vs. Dustin Poirier (-350)
Amir Sadollah (-200) vs. Jorge Lopez (+160)
Donald Cerrone (-265) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+205)
Yves Jabouin (-230) vs. Jeff Hougland (+180)
Igor Pokrajac (+135) vs. Fabio Maldonado (-165)
Jason MacDonald (+195) vs. Tom Lawlor (-250)
Cody McKenzie (+105) vs. Marcus LeVesseur (-135)
Brad Tavares (-175) vs. Dongi Yang (+145)
TJ Grant (-450) vs. Carlo Prater (+325)
Rafael dos Anjos (-300) vs. Kamal Shalorus (+230)
Jeff Curran (-135) vs. Johnny Eduardo (+105)
Alex Soto (+180) vs. Francisco Rivera (-225)
Matt “Riverboat Gambler” Erickson
Last event’s record: 4-0 singles, 1-1 parlays. Overall record: 10-3 singles, 3-3 parlays. Overall bank: Up $297.76.
Last event recap: MattE swept his singles, including a $40 bet on +170 ‘dog Lavar Johnson that paid out nicely. And he hit a 2-leg ‘dogs parlay of Nate Diaz and Johnson to clear another $100-plus.
MattE’s Breakdown
This isn’t exactly an easy card to pick winners for – it feels like most of these fights are even closer than their odds and there really aren’t many that I couldn’t see going either way. That makes parlays even more dangerous than usual. And considering I’ve swept my singles twice in our first three events, I need to put thoughts of another sweep on hold – or at least temper my expectations. I’ll go with four mid-range favorites in my singles – though Jabouin is the only one I’m really sold on as any kind of a lock. I’m still playing with house money from a month ago, so I can afford to go a little heavier on a favorites parlay and take a wackity-schmackity-do risk on a four-leg ‘dogs parlay.
MattE’s Individual Wagers
Curran (-135): $13.50 to win $23.50
Maldonado (-165): $16.50 to win $26.50
Jabouin (-230): $23 to win $33
Tavares (-175): $17.50 to win $27.50
MattE’s Parlay Wagers
Poirier (-350), Cerrone (-265), Jabouin (-230), Lawlor (-250), Grant (-450): $19.50 to win $84.78
Lopez (+160), McKenzie (+105), Shalorus (+230), Soto (+180): $10 to win $492.49
Total potential earnings: $687.77 ($587.77 profit)
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Nate “Boiler Up” Lawson
Last event’s record: 2-2 singles, 0-2 parlays. Overall record: 5-7 singles, 1-4 parlays. Overall bank: Up $75.87
Last event recap: A couple of solid underdog bets kept Lawson ahead for the night. He bet $30 on Alan Belcher, who upset Rousimar Palhares, and he picked up some cash betting on Lavar Johnson, as well.
Nate’s Breakdown
UFC on Fox: Diaz vs. Miller provided me with some nice payouts, but I wasn’t the only one to hit on Alan Belcher’s ridiculous odds. Now that the UFC is heading back to Fuel TV, I was looking for another underdog like “The Talent,” but I realize that kind of payout for that kind of fighter is hard to come by. Instead, for my individual wagers, I was more focused on picking winners than playing odds. I like picking Curran, because this has to be the first fight under the Zuffa banner in years where he is not a pretty steep underdog. Meanwhile, Soto, Pokrajac and MacDonald all find themselves in winnable fights, regardless of their underdog statuses. The only pick that really came down to the odds was Stephens, who is fighting a very good technical striker. I’m not betting heavy on the Midwest fighter, as he has struggled against technical strikers in the past, but his heart and heavy hands could change the dynamic of the contest and turn it into more of a brawl. As for the parlays, the first is straight favorites, and most of those picks, in my opinion, are pretty safe (like Poirier). The second is a bit more of a stretch with two underdogs tailing the pair of favorites, but like I said, a lot of these fights have slight favorites and underdogs, so I would hardly be shocked if I went four-for-four in that parlay.
Nate’s Individual Wagers
Curran (-135): $20 to win $34.81
Stephens (+205): $10 to win $30.50
Pokrajac (+135): $10 to win $23.50
Soto (+180): $20 to win $56
MacDonald (+195): $10 to win $29.50
Nate’s Parlay Wagers
Poirier (-350), Sadollah (-200), Jabouin (-230), Lawlor (-250), Tavares (-175), Grant (-450), dos Anjos (-300), Curran (-135): $20 to win $148.81
Poirier (-350), Cerrone (-265), Levesseur (-135), Shalorus (+230): $10 to win $101.73
Total potential earnings: $424.85 ($324.85 profit)
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Duane “Buffalo Nickel” Finley
Last event’s record: 3-1 singles, 0-1 parlays. Overall record: 7-5 singles, 0-3 parlays. Overall bank: Up $6.54.
Last event recap: Finley did well with his singles at UFC on Fox, hitting three of four – including a $30 upset bet on Belcher and $20 on +210 ‘dog Michael Johnson. He’s finally back in the red, but taking this event off. Hey, that’s one way to guarantee you won’t lose. But ya can’t win if ya don’t play!
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The Rules
* Must wager an even $100 per event
* Must pick a minimum of four individual fights per event
* Must pick a minimum of one parlay per event, with a minimum of two fights; 10-fight maximum
* Must wager a minimum of $10 per individual fight or parlay with a $50 maximum
* Records and (fictional) money totals will accumulate throughout year
* Winning bets include original wager. For example, a $27.50 win on a $10 bet would include the original wager, plus a $17.50 profit
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Previous installments of CREDITS:
UFC on Fuel TV: Gustafsson vs. Silva (April 13)
UFC 145: Jones vs. Evans (April 21)