Democratic Polls for Feb. 3: State of the Race in New Hampshire & Nevada

Nevada

Hillary Clinton Nevada, Hillary Clinton New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton polls

Hillary Clinton, here campaigning in New Hampshire, has the edge in Nevada according to the most recent polls. (Getty)

The most recent Nevada poll was released by Gravis on December 28. In that poll, Clinton led Sanders by 23 points, 50 to 27. While that’s obviously too far out to measure everything accurately, it is interesting to note that the most recent previous poll, an October release from CNN/ORC, showed more competitive numbers (a 16-point lead at 50-34), possibly hinting that Bernie’s surge in Iowa and New Hampshire did not signal a rise in the states beyond.

The two polls combine for a RealClearPolitics average showing a Clinton lead of 19.5 at 50 percent, with Bernie Sanders at 30.5 percent.

Nevada Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Hillary Clinton: 50%
  • Bernie Sanders: 30.5%
  • FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have enough recent polling for a forecast, but tracks recent polling to show a 50.4 percent chance for Clinton, with Sanders at 28.5 percent.

    The Rest of the Country

    Democratic polls, Democratic debate, Rachel Maddow debate

    Rachel Maddow, here hosting a town hall event in Flint, Michigan, will moderate Thursday’s Democratic debate. (Getty)

    A recent national poll from Investors Business Daily shows a 12-point lead for Clinton. This is in keeping with most national polls since the campaign began, and is not particularly predictive information: national polls include voters that won’t cast a ballot or head to the caucus for as many as five months, and a lot can change between now and then.

    The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 14.4 points at 51.6 percent, with Sanders taking 37.2 and O’Malley taking 2.2.

    National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

    • Hillary Clinton: 51.6%
    • Bernie Sanders: 37.2%
    • Martin O’Malley: 2.2%

    The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton at an 84 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders at 15 percent and Martin O’Malley at 1 percent.

    News of the Day

  • Hillary Clinton disputed claims from the media that she was previously friends with GOP national frontrunner Donald Trump.
  • Bernie Sanders officially agreed to Hillary Clinton’s proposed terms for Thursday’s debate.

  • Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule

    Debate Schedule

    New Hampshire: February 4, MSNBC

    Wisconsin: February 11, PBS

    Florida: March 9, Univision

    Primary Schedule

    New Hampshire: February 9

    Nevada: February 20

    South Carolina: February 27

    Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
    Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1

    Kansas, Louisiana: March 5

    Maine: March 6

    Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8

    Northern Mariana Islands: March 12

    Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15

    Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22

    Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26

    Wisconsin: April 5

    Wyoming: April 9

    New York: April 19

    Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

    Indiana: May 3

    West Virginia: May 10

    Kentucky, Oregon: May 17

    California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7

    Washington, D.C.: June 14