South Carolina Democratic Polls 2016: Clinton Well Ahead

Hillary Clinton polls, Hillary Clinton South Carolina, Hillary Clinton primary

HIllary Clinton, here at a victory speech in Nevada, is well ahead in South Carolina polls. (Getty)

After a tight finish in Iowa and a big win for Bernie Sanders, the Nevada caucus proved to be a decisive victory for Hillary Clinton. There’s little time for the Clinton camp to celebrate, however, as the campaign moves on to the South Carolina primary February 27.

According to the polls, Hillary Clinton is expected to score her largest victory of the race, a sentiment echoed by the forecasts and the betting markets. Here’s a look at the state of the race:


The Polls

Polls for South Carolina showed Hillary well in the lead even after disappointing results in the first two states. As the race in Nevada shook out, her polling picture got even better:

 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Released February 20
Hillary Clinton 60%
Bernie Sanders 32%

 

 Fox News Released February 20
Hillary Clinton 56%
Bernie Sanders 28%

 

 Bloomberg Released February 19
Hillary Clinton 53%
Bernie Sanders 31%

 

American Research Group Released February 19
Hillary Clinton 61%
Bernie Sanders 32%

 

Monmouth Released February 18
Hillary Clinton 59%
Bernie Sanders 30%

 

Public Policy Polling Released February 16
Hillary Clinton 55%
Bernie Sanders 34%

 

CBS News/YouGov Released February 14
Hillary Clinton 59%
Bernie Sanders 40%

 

American Research Group Released February 14
Hillary Clinton 65%
Bernie Sanders 27%

RealClearPolitics updated its averages with these new polls, eliminating the out-of-date 2015 surveys:

RealClearPolitics Averages
Hillary Clinton 57.4%
Bernie Sanders 33.3%

While these averages aren’t far from the results before other states voted (Sanders actually gains somewhat on the average), that’s not great news for a candidate who has a lot of ground to make up and has likely already seen his biggest bump from two very favorable states


The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast factors in elements like previous primary results, endorsements, and national polling trends to add context to the polling numbers. Their polls-plus forecast for South Carolina is extremely favorable to Clinton:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
Hillary Clinton >99%
Bernie Sanders <1%

Their polls-only forecast weighs recent polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, shows similarly dim hopes for Sanders:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast
Hillary Clinton >99%
Bernie Sanders <1%

The Betting Markets

The betting markets for South Carolina, based on day-to-day reactions, come down heavily in favor of Clinton after the new polls:

PredictWise South Carolina Betting Markets
Hillary Clinton 99%
Bernie Sanders 1%