Donald Trump is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination as the race moves to South Carolina. (Getty)
The GOP presidential race is moving to South Carolina, which hosts its primary on Saturday, February 20. A lot can and will change before then, but one thing is clear when looking at polls in the Palmetto State: Donald Trump entered Tuesday as the frontrunner in South Carolina, and he’ll remain the frontrunner after his dominant performance in New Hampshire.
For a variety of reasons, South Carolina polling data should be taken with a grain of salt. For starters, it’s not entirely clear which candidates will be in the race, given that at least a couple of them might drop out after disappointing performances in New Hampshire. And all of the polls included in RealClear Politics’ weighted polling average were conducted in January, before any votes were cast in Iowa or New Hampshire.
Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that Trump headed into February with a commanding lead and is well-positioned to retain it after his New Hampshire win.
Below is a rundown of South Carolina polling averages via RealClear Politics. The polls featured in the average were conducted between January 17 and January 23.
| CANDIDATE | POLLING AVERAGE |
| Donald Trump | 36% |
| Ted Cruz | 19.7% |
| Marco Rubio | 12.7% |
| Jeb Bush | 10% |
| Ben Carson | 8.7% |
| Chris Christie | 2.3% |
It will take several days to get even a hint of how New Hampshire’s results have impacted the polling dynamic in South Carolina. And even that data won’t tell us a whole lot about what’s actually going to transpire when voters go to the polls.
In New Hampshire, for instance, polls conducted in the aftermath of Marco Rubio’s strong third-place finish in Iowa showed the Florida senator gaining ground and moving into second place in New Hampshire. The conventional wisdom was that Rubio was the biggest winner in Iowa. His stock in the betting markets, for instance, skyrocketed, while Trump’s plummeted.
Eight days later, Rubio is perhaps the biggest loser in New Hampshire, staring at the possibility of a dismal fifth-place finish, behind John Kasich, Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush.
Rubio’s stumble in New Hampshire is likely especially good news for Trump. In the days after Iowa, Rubio’s standing in the national polls improved substantially. The conventional wisdom was that he would be able to unite the GOP as the “mainstream” candidate best suited to take down Trump and Cruz. Several polls backed up that conventional wisdom.
A national poll from Public Policy Polling, for instance, showed Rubio pulling to within 4 percentage points of Trump nationally, and Rubio actually leading the field in everything from a two-man race against Trump or Cruz to a four-man race against Trump, Cruz and Bush.
Eight days after Iowa, though, that conventional wisdom has taken a major hit. Rather than dropping out of the race after New Hampshire, Kasich and Bush are almost certain to move on to South Carolina, depriving Rubio of an opportunity to pick up votes from Kasich and Bush supporters. Even if Chris Christie and/or Carly Fiorina drop out before South Carolina, the so-called “establishment lane” is likely to remain awfully crowded, potentially paving the way for another Trump rout.
Rubio, whose poor performance at last week’s debate in New Hampshire may have set him back substantially, will get a chance to regain his footing on Saturday, February 13, when the leading GOP candidates compete in a debate in Greenville, South Carolina.
South Carolina GOP Primary: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know
The South Carolina GOP presidential primary is set for Saturday, February 20. It will be the center of the GOP race after the New Hampshire primary.
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is Heavy's Managing Editor and lead sports editor. He's been a reporter and editor at The Trentonian, the Connecticut Post and the New Haven Register. Follow him on Twitter at @bendoody.
February 9, 2016 11:46 pm
Trump vs Sanders…bring iy on!
Christie is not going to SC. He gave his all in NH and didn’t get momentum. He has no support in SC. He’s out. All the rest will stay in.
He is planning to call iut quit, this afternoon!.
Phone scammers memorize a 25 second speech too when they scam people. Rubiobot was doing the same thing to voters just to get their votes. I don’t trust him anymore.
Real Clear politics overstated HRC support by 13% in Iowa, and 35% in NH.
I think it has been established that polling is worthless in this race. – Just sayin.
The media is painting the narative of Rubio surging. They have tried all along to lead the voters by the nose to the Jeb or Rubio ballot box. It’s sad that the media is so biased. The people have spoken and they will continue to speak… The revolution has begun.. The media should just report the facts and get out of the talking head opinions. Nobody cares what you media elite people think anymore. We are on to you guys. Trump all the way and we don’t care what you say!#Trump2016
Exactly to the point. All the pundits and media loud mouths are all hired dogs. Never worth listening to. No FOX No CNN. If I have to listen to, I will choose CNN. Less hypocritical. Fox, led by Megyn the shrill, is in no way fair and balanced. All personnel are puppets at the service of their boss, who is Trump hater.
Trump starts giving away that 6 million dollars to veterans groups in SC and he takes 50 delegates. Is Trumps campaign from God or what?
Has anyone seen a poll conducted AFTER NH or at least after Iowa? These polls are all from before any actual votes were cast… :(
See my post below. “S. C. not showing any fresh polls because Cruz is currently crushing the Republican Establishment. If those polls get out, Rubio is toast and Trump is headed deep South in the polls. Trump will ruin the image of the Republican Party if he is nominated.”
Why are so many Americans weak and pathetic excuses for the 4.5 billion year old evolutionary majesty that human beings are meant to be?
Trump 2016!!!!!
S. C. not showing any fresh polls because Cruz is currently crushing the Republican Establishment. If those polls get out, Rubio is toast and Trump is headed deep South in the polls. Trump will ruin the image of the Republican Party if he is nominated.
PREACH!!!