South Carolina Primary 2016: Latest Republican Polls

Nikki Haley and Marco Rubio, GOP polls South Carolina, Rubio polls South Carolina

South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (left) applauds as Marco Rubio speaks at a rally February 18 in Greenville, South Carolina. (Getty)

Donald Trump remains the favorite in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, but things are starting to get interesting in the final hours before voters head to the polls. While Trump’s lead in the RealClear politics average of recent polls remains in double digits, a handful of polls released over the past two days have reported serious momentum for Marco Rubio, with one poll putting the Florida senator within 3 percentage points of Trump for first place. Ted Cruz, who won the Iowa caucus before finishing third in New Hampshire, was also within 5 points of Trump in a poll released Thursday.

The poll showing the biggest Rubio surge came from OpinionSavvy, which had Trump at 27 percent and Rubio trailing closely behind at 24 percent. That’s a net gain of 18 percentage points in the last eight days for Rubio, who trailed Trump by 21 points in an OpinionSavvy poll released February 11, two days after Rubio’s fifth-place finish in the New Hampshire primary. The surge comes after Rubio received the endorsement of popular GOP governor Nikki Haley, who has been campaigning with Rubio throughout the state.

Predictably, the poll generated plenty of buzz among conservative commentators rooting for Trump’s demise. Take this tweet, for instance, from Commentary Magazine Editor John Podhoretz.

The OpinionSavvy poll and others showing similar gains for Rubio have made a pretty substantial pre-election impact on the betting markets as well. Rubio’s chances at winning the nomination rose from 30 percent to 37 percent over the past day, according to Predictwise.com, while Trump’s dropped from 51 percent to 47 percent.

The betting markets are less bullish on Cruz nationally, giving him just an 11 percent chance to win. But they actually give him a slightly better shot to win South Carolina than Rubio: Cruz is at 9 percent, while Rubio is at 7 percent, to win the Palmetto State.

Here’s a look at the South Carolina polling landscape as GOP voters head to the polls:


RealClear Politics Polling Average

The RealClear Politics polling average consists of 10 polls conducted from February 14 to February 19.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 32%
Ted Cruz 18%
Marco Rubio 18%
Jeb Bush 10%
John Kasich 10%
Ben Carson 7%

OpinionSavvy Poll

The latest poll from OpinionSavvy was conducted February 18 and 19. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 27%
Marco Rubio 24%
Ted Cruz 19%
Jeb Bush 11%
Ben Carson 8%
John Kasich 7%

South Carolina House GOP Caucus Poll

The latest GOP House caucus poll was conducted February 18. It has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 34%
Ted Cruz 19%
Marco Rubio 18%
Jeb Bush 12%
John Kasich 8%
Ben Carson 5%

American Research Group (ARG) Poll

The latest ARG poll was conducted February 17 and 18. It has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 34%
Marco Rubio 22%
John Kasich 14%
Ted Cruz 13%
Jeb Bush 9%
Ben Carson 4%

Emerson College Poll

The latest Emerson College poll was conducted February 16-18. It has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 36%
Marco Rubio 19%
Ted Cruz 18%
John Kasich 10%
Jeb Bush 10%
Ben Carson 6%

Harper Poll

The latest Harper poll was conducted February 16-17. It has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 29%
Ted Cruz 17%
Marco Rubio 15%
Jeb Bush 14%
John Kasich 13%
Ben Carson 8%

NBC News & Wall Street Journal Poll

The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted by Marist College, was conducted February 15-17. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 28%
Ted Cruz 23%
Marco Rubio 15%
Jeb Bush 13%
John Kasich 9%
Ben Carson 9%

Fox News Poll

The latest Fox News poll was conducted February 15-17. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 32%
Ted Cruz 19%
Marco Rubio 15%
Jeb Bush 9%
Ben Carson 9%
John Kasich 6%

Clemson Poll

The latest Clemson University poll was conducted February 14-18. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 28%
Ted Cruz 19%
Marco Rubio 15%
Jeb Bush 10%
John Kasich 9%
Ben Carson 6%

Monmouth University Poll

The latest Monmouth poll was conducted February 14-16. It has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 35%
Ted Cruz 19%
Marco Rubio 17%
John Kasich 9%
Jeb Bush 8%
Ben Carson 7%

PPP Poll

Public Policy Polling released its latest South Carolina survey on Tuesday morning. The poll was conducted February 14 and 15 and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. In addition to asking respondents for whom they plan to vote in Saturday’s primary, PPP asked respondents who they would pick in hypothetical matchups if there were fewer choices. You can check out the full poll for all of the data. But a sampling of the key findings is below.

6-Way Race (Slate of Candidates in the Race Now)

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 35%
Marco Rubio 18%
Ted Cruz 18%
John Kasich 10%
Jeb Bush 7%
Ben Carson 7%

4 Way Race Between Trump, Cruz, Rubio & Bush

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 39%
Marco Rubio 21%
Ted Cruz 20%
Jeb Bush 12%

3-Way Race Between Trump, Rubio & Cruz

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 40%
Marco Rubio 28%
Ted Cruz 22%

2-Way Race Between Trump & Rubio

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 46%
Marco Rubio 45%

2-Way Race Between Trump & Cruz

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 48%
Ted Cruz 38%

2-Way Race Between Trump & Bush

 CANDIDATE  VOTE%
 Donald Trump  50%
 Jeb Bush  40%

2-Way Race Between Rubio & Cruz

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Marco Rubio 47%
Ted Cruz 37%