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2016 Presidential Polls Latest: Donald Trump Takes Lead in New Polls

Donald Trump rally, Donald Trump Laconia rally, Donald Trump new hampshire rally

LACONIA, NH – SEPTEMBER 15: Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks at Laconia Middle School September 15, 2016 in Laconia, New Hampshire. Trump is in a tight race with Hillary Clinton as the November election nears. (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)

Two new national presidential polls show Donald Trump ahead as Hillary Clinton’s lead continues to narrow, although his lead in one of the polls is within the margin for error.

Furthermore, combined battleground state polling on September 18 showed the race is tied, according to CBS News. “The race across the combined battlegrounds is as tight as can be, tied 42 percent to 42 percent,” said CBS of the swing states. Read specifics on recent battleground state polls here.

However, a third poll, by NBC News/SurveyMonkey, released September 20, shows Clinton with a 5 percent lead. That’s an online poll, however.

A new Florida poll released on September 19 showed Clinton with only a 1 percent lead – again in the margin for error – in the pivotal state of Florida.

When you boil it all down: Clinton’s support continues to erode, but, since she was ahead before in most polls, the race has basically tightened to a virtual tie in many polls but with Trump achieving a lead in the last two.

The polling trend drawing great interest, though: One of the new national polls showed a dramatic increase in black support for Donald Trump. According to The New York Post, Trump “saw a 16.5 percentage-point increase in backing from African-American voters in a Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California tracking poll.” That’s up from 3.1 percent on Sept. 10 to 19.6 percent through September 16.

Trump has struggled to earn black voter support in polls in the past, although he has made a concerted effort to connect more with African-American voters, by attending a black church and making comments directed at them. In fact, a higher percentage of Hispanics supports him than African-Americans, the LA Times/USC poll shows. However, because Trump dominates Clinton among white voters, earning just some additional non-white voting support could be crucial.

Clinton’s collapse in that poll started the day of her health problem at the 9/11 memorial, The Post says.

clinton philadelphia rally photos

Hillary Clinton (Getty)

Clinton has consistently shed support in September. How has the recent unrest – terrorist attacks, shootings of police – affected the race? The first poll to measure the period of time encompassing the day of the Chelsea explosion in Manhattan shows Trump with a 7 percentage point lead.

However, the RealClearPolitics polling average still has Clinton with a 0.9 percent edge in all national polls from September 5 to September 18. That’s a slide downward, though, for the former secretary of state, especially since the Democratic National Convention.

When you consider the margin for error, the race is basically a dead heat. Clinton led in the five previous polls, although three of those polls were in the margin for error.

Here’s what you need to know about the most recent national presidential polls, as of September 19:


Fox News

CANDIDATE VOTE
Trump 46%
Clinton 45%

The Fox News poll was conducted September 11 through September 14. It measured likely voters.

However, Clinton is up by one percent in this poll if you count Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

In both cases, the leads are within the margin for error.


NBC News/SurveyMonkey

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 50%
Trump 45%

The NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll surveys voters online. The poll was conducted from September 12 through 18 says Clinton has regained momentum against Trump, although the other two most recent polls showed the opposite.


LA Times/USC Tracking

CANDIDATE VOTE
Trump 48%
Clinton 41%

The LA Times/USC daily tracking poll was conducted September 12 through September 18. It’s the first poll to capture the period of the Chelsea explosion in New York and mall stabbing attack in Minnesota.

In addition to the dramatic increase in support for Trump among black voters, the poll found a large shift in the number of people who think Trump could win the race. Previously, according to The Los Angeles Times, most people thought Clinton would win the election, but now her lead is in the margin for error.


CBS News/New York Times

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 46%
Trump 44%

This poll was conducted from September 9 through September 13. It’s a dead heat if you include Johnson and Stein.


Economist/YouGov

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 46%
Trump 44%

This poll was conducted September 10 to 13. The margin between the two candidates remained the same in this poll if you include Johnson and Stein.


Quinnipiac

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 48%
Trump 43%

This poll was conducted from September 9 through September 13. However, this poll also shows a narrowing of Clinton’s support because she led by 10 points in the same poll on August 25.

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6 comments

  1. Oh please, while the dumbest bark the loudest, stink the most, and paint their skin the orangest, we all know the media is self-serving in their statistically bias polls intended to keep you tuned in to their station, newspaper..like the football game is tied with 30 seconds left at the 20 yard line. — a poll of 1000 people, where half of them are “unlikely voters” meaning they admit to not voting in the last 3 elections – is NOT an accurate poll. the media intentionally seek “unlikely voters” in their polls in order to wash their hands of fraudulent polls. but, they are fraudulent, because it is deliberately misleading. the biggest failure this election is the media, not even trump when he loses.

  2. These polls showing head to head are meaningless, because that’s not the reality. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein ARE on the ballot. So where are the polls with them?

    That said, the debates this election are more important than previously, because about 20% of people have said they are softly supporting their candidate.

    But just ask yourself these questions:
    – Who would appoint better Supreme Court and upper-court justices?
    – Who would treat our vets better and listen to military advice?
    – Who would apply real-world techniques to jump-start the economy?
    – Who would handle immigration from problematic countries and internal terrorists better?

    Answer these, and you have your candidate.

  3. Hillary Klinton and her goons rigged the primaries where millions of voters did not get to vote, now she want people to turn out for her for fear of a trump presidency. um where is that 12 year old rape victim, now 53 and why isn’t anyone asking her to comment on the type of person Hellary is? Who takes on a case as a favor to a friend and allows a pedophile to walk? NOT SOMEONE WHO GIVES A FUK ABOUT CHILDREN. FYOU HELLARY. Jill Stein for President 2016. NO amount of polls will change the voters who will turn out AGAINST YOUR POS ASS. #SeeYouInNovember pig