Clinton vs. Trump: Election Odds for October 24



As election day nears, Hillary Clinton is still highly favored to win, and has a significant lead in most major election forecasts.

According to the Real Clear Politics poll average, Clinton holds a 6.1-lead over Republican rival Donald Trump.

With the majority of national polls projecting a general election victory for Clinton, the Democratic nominee has shifted the focus of her campaign on tight down-ballot races in an effort to capture a Democratic majority in the Senate.

While it is possible that Trump could stage a comeback, it is unprecedented for a candidate to win the election after being this far behind. The GOP nominee is running out of time to change the trajectory of the race.

Another possibility is the polls could be overstating Clinton’s advantage. However, Clinton is still in a reasonably safe position with a 6-point lead, unless there is a large margin of error in the polling. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump’s chances of winning in their model are about 1 in 7. As pollster Drew Linzer pointed out, such an occurrence is not impossible, but would be rare. A candidate with a 1-in-7 chance to win occurs about one presidential election every 28 years, according to Linzer.

Here is a look at the latest forecast trends.

How Forecasts Compare

NYT Upshot: Clinton 93%, Trump 7%

The New York Times’ Upshot elections model predicts Hillary Clinton has a high probability of winning the election.

Based on the latest state and national polls, Clinton has a 93 percent chance of winning the presidency compared to Trump’s 7 percent.

Since Oct. 17 the Upshot model has shown Clinton has held a 90 percent chance or higher of winning the election.

FiveThirtyEight: Clinton 86.2%, Trump 13.8% (Polls-Only)

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight forecasts have consistently shown Clinton is highly favored to win on Nov. 8. While there haven’t been any major changes in their forecasts over the last several days, Clinton is up a tick or two after Monday’s morning’s polls.

Their polls-plus forecast shows Trump has a 15.9 percent chance compared to Clinton’s 84 percent. The polls-plus forecast takes into account the polls, economy and historical data to make a prediction.

Clinton has a 6.5-percentage-point lead in the popular vote and an 86.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the polls-only forecast.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nowcast, which incorporates new polls very quickly, shows the Democratic nominee having an 86.9 percent chance of winning if the election were to be held today.

PredictWise: Clinton 90%, Trump 10%

In addition to polling-based models from FiveThirtyEight, there is the PredictWise model, which uses information from betting markets to make a prediction.

As of Monday morning, PredictWise shows Clinton has a 90 percent probability of winning the election. Their model has given Clinton a 90 percent chance or higher of winning since Oct. 13.

Daily Kos: Clinton 95%, Trump 5%

Daily Kos shows Clinton currently has a 95 percent chance of winning the presidency. In a simulated electoral votes projection, Clinton has 341 compared to Trump’s 197. Their projections take into account current polling data.

How States Have Shifted

Clinton’s chances increased in several states including Arizona, Texas, Georgia, New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina and Minnesota. Nevada, which has been a toss up for most of the race, appears to be slipping away from Trump. Clinton has led in six of the last seven polls in the state, giving her an average lead of more than four points, according to Real Clear Politics.

Trump’s chances increased slightly in Ohio and Iowa.

What Has Recently Impacted the Predictions?

Throughout September, polls and election forecasts showed Trump was narrowing the gap between him and his Democratic rival. However, that margin has significantly widened since the first presidential debate.

Clinton was credited with winning all three presidential debates, giving her a clean sweep according to the scientific post-debate polls.

Clinton won last week’s final presidential debate, topping Trump by a 13-point margin according to a CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers.

Of the 1,503 registered voters surveyed in a YouGov poll, 49 percent said she was the victor against 39 percent for the real estate mogul, with 12 percent calling it a tie.

Trump’s poll numbers have been on the decline since the release of a 2005 tape in which he made lewd comments about women, and a string of sexual assault allegations.

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  1. ALERT! Media RIGGING POLLS in effort to Suppress Voter Turnout

    Is there no limit to the dirty tricks being pulled this election cycle?

    GOP nominee Donald Trump has charged that Democrats are making up polls as a way of “suppressing” his campaign. The strategy will cause voters to think their candidate is a lost cause and won’t “waste” their vote. If the Globalist’s win who drain all our money, then we deserve felon Hillary Clinton?

    • “ALERT! Media RIGGING POLLS in effort to Suppress Voter Turnout Is there no limit to the dirty tricks being pulled this election cycle?” You are referring to Donald Trump and all his lame excuses for losing aren’t you?

    • “Felon Hillary Clinton?????” Excuse me, but show me the documentation for Hillary Clinton’s felony conviction. Sadly, just more blowhard Donald rantings . . . .YAWN!

  2. Donald Trump is going to win. And now you think I’m a Trump supporter. I’m not.
    Here’s why that statement may very well be true.
    1.) As most of us know, the popular vote DOES NOT MATTER. It’s the Electoral College Vote that counts.
    2.) Yes, Hillary is ahead in almost all of the swing states. BY ONLY 3% OR SO! That’s within the margin of error.
    In other words, “for all intents and purposes,” it’s literally tied in those states.
    3.) Trump is actually ahead in Ohio. Unemployment is BAD there; and people tend to vote Republican when they perceive the
    economy is bad.
    4.) Take away Florida and Ohio. Hillary now must win every single swing state except one, or she loses.
    The odds of that happening are not as high as one might think; they’re certainly not so high that supporters should be feeling confident.
    In fact, I would say that the exact opposite is true.
    5.) Studies have shown that Democrats who are considered “likely voters” end up voting in lower percentages than the same group of
    Republicans. They tend to be more affected by work emergencies, transportation difficulties, the weather, health issues etc.
    6.) Now factor in the “why bother” issue – the misconception that it’s not necessary to vote because “Hillary is going to win in a landslide.”
    And then consider how motivated, angry and emotional many Republicans are about this election, and how many of them “hate Hillary”
    or feel that she’s “crooked” or a “criminal.” That makes for a HIGHLY-motivated voting populace.
    Take that all together – yeah. Hillary’s actually “in a bit of a spot.” Most-especially if she loses in Ohio and Florida.

    • 1.) We all know this, thanks
      2.) No, she’s up in Colorado by 8% and Pennsylvania by 7%.
      3.) He might win Ohio.
      4.) Lies. She can lose FL and OH as long as she wins PA and CO (up by 7+ in each) an it’s OVER
      In fact, I would say that the exact opposite is true.
      5.) Lies. Lies. Lies. Step away from Breitbart.
      6.) You think your fellow Trump voters are angry? Try women. WOMEN hate Trump and they are voting

    • You are SO full of CRAP and in more ways than one. Your “analysis” is chalk full of LIES (why would you throw out any states???) and so is your claim that you’re not a Trump supporter. You think the intelligent voters don’t know your lame and lunatic rants. Think again.

  3. Polls are not rigged. The Republican Party has become the REPO PARTY we are not doing our job to nominate the best candidate. These comments are the same as four years ago, Hillary will win without a shadow of doubt. We were counting on Americans to be dumb enough to elect a non-experience candidate to run our country but let’s face it folks Americans are not that dumb and the one’s that are, it’s simply not enough of the dumb ones to put him in office. A Liar vs a Rapist/ Pervert you do the math. God Bless America and Everyone Else.

    • Yes, the first 20 years I voted, my vote was just about split 50/50 . . . but as of recent, at least on a national level, little by little, my vote has leaned Democrat . . . Republicans eat their young, and their good candidates are marginalized by the tyranny of the minority within the party . . . a moderate/right-of-center moderate Republican doesn’t stand a chance!

      • Marc Levin said it best: “Conservatives don’t have a candidate, but we do have an opponent. That opponent it most definitely Hillary Clinton. She must be defeated!” Therefore vote for Trump. He may not be our candidate but he’s our only hope.

        • Only hope for WHAT?! To destroy the economy? The dude filed bankruptcy SIX TIMES, he hires illegal immigrants, his Trump brand shirts are made in China and his Trump brand ties are made in Bangladesh, and he wants to cut taxes only for the rich making the middle class the bearer of even more burden. And speaking of his businesses, he has lost 40% of his revenue in just the past couple of months — people are canceling their reservations at his hotels and choosing other golf courses than his. What the hell are you even talking about? HOPE FOR WHAT??? Hope that you can keep your assault rifle? Hope that you can watch a wall be built along the Mexican border (we already have a fence so that will NEVER happen)? Hope for Roe v. Wade to be overturned when it has already been decided by THE SUPREME COURT? You’re either one of the biggest morons alive or… maybe you were drunk when you posted your comment.

          • We don’t need to discuss the issues in full detail, but you democrats are going to force our children to live in present day Sodom and Gomorrah. Gay marriage, tranny bathrooms, Abortion, and whatever else you all and Hilary can find that contradicts the holy bible. Our country is going to hell in a handbasket! Our children can’t vote, so we must! Our supreme court must be in a balance that is in accordance with the word of God. These liberals will ruin the balance at the expense of our children.