Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will hold a rally in St. Augustine, Florida this afternoon, his first of two events today.

Trump will speak at the St. Augustine Amphitheatre beginning at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The event can be viewed in the embedded YouTube player via Right Side Broadcasting.

A tremendous number of Trump’s rallies have been held in Florida over the past few weeks, as this is the most important state in the 2016 presidential election. If Donald Trump does not secure the state’s 29 electoral votes, there is simply no realistic path to the presidency for him. Clinton, though, can still reach 270 without Florida.

Although Florida had previously been leading towards Donald Trump, the state now favors Hillary Clinton. In Real Clear Politics’ polling average, Clinton is ahead of Trump by 4.0 percentage points. FiveThirtyEight calculates that Hillary Clinton has a 74.1 percent chance of winning Florida.

Florida is one of many states that Trump now absolutely must win, and many of them are beginning to move towards Hillary Clinton. Trump also needs North Carolina and Ohio, but Clinton is ahead in the former, and in the latter, Trump only leads Clinton by 0.4 percentage points.

Trump, however, seemingly does not believe any of this data, saying it’s being made up by the Democrats and that the size of his rallies proves he’s going to win. On Twitter this morning, Trump said that Democrats are “making up phony polls.” He has also said during recent speeches that he doesn’t believe the data that shows him having a historically low approval rating among women because many women attend his rallies.