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Early Voting Results: Do They Show Polls Were Wrong? Or Right?

Early voting results in the 2016 presidential election are rolling in from states around the country, and so far, the numbers show few surprises and appear to be confirming what most polls have said throughout most of the campaign and in particular for the last few weeks — that Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a solid lead and her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, faces a steep uphill battle if he plans to turn the results around in the 12 days remaining before the November 8 national vote.

The New York Times Upshot — the Times’ data journalism and polling analysis section — on Thursday began posting its estimate of how the final vote tally will turn out in North Carolina, based on a statistical analysis of early voting results. According to Upshot, early voting indicates that Clinton will win the Tar Heel State with 49.1 percent of the vote. Trump will place a distant second at 43.1 percent — a full 6 percentage points.

How do those North Carolina projections based on early voting compare to current poll numbers across the country?

According to the Huffington Post Pollster.com average of all presidential polls pitting Trump against Clinton — and including Stein and Johnson — Clinton holds a lead of 45.9 percent to 39.4 percent.

While the various poll aggregators have varying methods of computing their averages, the Pollster.com national average agrees closely with the national polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight.com, which shows Clinton with 45.7 to 39.9 for Trump.

By comparison, in the 2012 presidential election, Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney by under four points, 51.1 to 47.2.

Early Voting Results, Hillary Clinton Donald Trump polls, are the polls wrong, are polls skewed,

Hillary Clinton campaigns in the early voting state of North Carolina on Thursday. (Getty)

The various states where early voting is underway have also shown results consistent with the polling averages for those states, according to political scientist and early voting expert analyst Michael McDonald of the University of Florida.

Early Voting Results & Turnout State-by-State: Who’s Leading?

Millions of Americans have voted early, and Hillary Clinton is showing strength in key states like Florida and North Carolina that matches her standings in the polls.

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In Nevada, McDonald wrote earlier this week, “there is nothing in these early voting numbers that contradict recent polling showing Clinton taking a lead in the state.”

The same holds true in California, Ohio, Florida and Virginia, McDonald added.

The California results are notable however, not because they show Clinton cruising to an expected victory — with registered Democrats returning their vote-by-mail ballots at rate 25 percent over the rate in the 2012 election, and Republicans up only six percent — but because of the extraordinary spike in Latino voting, reflected in the early voting numbers.

Latino voters, as the above chart reveals, have returned California vote-by-mail ballots at a rate 45 percent higher than four years ago.

One state that shows a slight but significant difference between early voting and and polling numbers is the traditionally Republican-voting Arizona. With the lone exception of Bill Clinton in 1996, no Democrat has carried Arizona since Harry Truman in 1948. And Trump currently holds a narrow lead of 1.3 percentage points there, according to the Pollster.com average.

Early Voting Results, Hillary Clinton Donald Trump polls, are the polls wrong, are polls skewed,

Donald Trump campaigning in Ohio where he and Clinton are running neck-and-neck in polls. (Getty)

But analysis of early voting in Arizona as of October 27, shows a surge in Democratic ballots returned compared to 2012, when Republican Romney beat Democratic incumbent President Obama by more than 10 points.

According to a CNN count, Democrats are running 4,116 returned ballots ahead of Republicans as of Thursday. But at the same point in the process four years ago, the GOP held a solid 21,179 ballot lead.

Early voting was heavy in Arizona in 2012, with two-thirds of all voters in the state casting their ballots prior to election day. If that trend holds in 2016, Clinton stands a strong chance to turn the state “blue,” in what would be one if the biggest upsets of the election.

Trump Vs. Clinton Millennial Support: Polls Show Young Voters Heavily Favor Clinton

New polls show that millennial voters strongly support Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in the 2016 Presidential campaign.

Click here to read more

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65 comments

  1. Forget about the Zombie apocalypse, that will never happen….Worry about the Freakin idiot apocalypse that is running for President, ( The Orange man) aka trump….

    • What a moron you are. If you think Hillary is a better choice, you have your head so far up their ass you’ll need a proctologist to get it out. Lets see… she’ll give us higher taxes to support her socialist ideology. A furtherance of Obamacare, which will be bankrupting our wallets with premium increases soon. She wants more Muslims pouring into the country, many of whom with ties to ISIS. More southern border crossers stealing our jobs and committing crime. More dependency on Arabs for oil & gas…and the list goes on. It takes a complete idiot to vote for any democrat. It takes an even bigger idiot to vote for Clinton #TRUMP2016 #NEVERHILLARY

        • Is that what you gullible fools believe on the left? Fine, then lets go with what we do know for certain and this is just ONE thing of many. She will NOT be eliminating Obamacare, the most ineffective & costly program ever to be unleashed upon the public, by the most failed President in modern history. Obamacare is socialism at its absolute most evident, AND at its worst. Skyrocketing premiums for completely ineffective medical care. Hmm, sound a little like Canada’s system? Sure does, where people with cancer often wait to have a procedure so long, that they are DEAD before the date arrives. You lefty clowns are unbelievable. Liberalism is truly a mental illness #TRUMP2016 #NEVERHILLARY

          • Since you claim that Obama is the most failed President in history, please tell me how he failed worse than each of his 40+ predecessors . . . oh, I’m sorry, I forgot . . . Trump supporters are ignorant of history, and prefer to rant dreck hoping a fellow imbecile will believe them!!!

            • How about that he has doubled the debt in 8 years from what it took 200+ years to accumulate to that point? Couple that with the politicization of the “Justice” Department, the dismal failure of Odumbocare, the circumvention of the Constitution at every whim, Fast and Furious (one of the guns the federal government sent to Mexico in this gun-running scheme to garner support for gun confiscations ended up used at the 2015 Paris terror attack and another from one of the same FFL dealers in the program to end up used at the Muhammed cartoon shooting in Garland not to mention one being used to kill ICE agent Brian Terry and no telling how many other slayings in Mexico and beyond), and the list goes on and on and on, ad nauseum. The fools that follow their failed “Great Leader” are mindless little autobots dribbling whatever they read on the Onion, Politico or whatever yellow journalism rag that’s chic for the mindless trolls more interested in cult of personality than facts….

            • It’s easy; Obama failed to be as white as the other forty. That really pisses off the angry white man contingent that Trump draws his support from.

          • Bob, are you that insecure that instead of refuting Colby’s claims you had to indulge in moronic bullying. Then Trump supporters wonder why the Undecided are running to Hillary!

        • Fast forward a few days later. Trump is leading in Ohio and Florida. Ohio is the bellweather state…

          As a former democrat, democrats have NO CREDIBILITY. PROJECT VERITAS! ALL Dem leaders implicated, ON VIDEO, resulting in the firing of 2 antagonists paid to incite violence at Trump rallies, Allan Schulkin admitting Dems bus illegal, ineligible voters into minority neighborhoods to cheat.

          Robert Creamer, paid to incite violence at Trump rallies, visited the White House 300 times…meeting with Obama 50 times.

          LIE, CHEAT, STEAL = DEMOCRATS

          NEVER VOTE FOR A DEM AGAIN!!!!!

        • You’re an idiot. There is now evidence that the Clinton Foundation has been used to gain profit for the Clintons. Hundreds of millions in profit. You really think she won’t go after the middle class, when she has no problem taking money raised to benefit children and broken communities? Moron, all she cares about is money and power, and she will do and say whatever she needs to to get it. When she has it, you’re going to be left to die just like the Americans in Benghazi.

        • Colby you are correct,…. and yet many of the rest of the 99% will still vote for the orange idiot. The same people are not even intelligent enough to compare the economy under Bill C, “The Bush” and Obama years and come away with a pragmatic assessment of what party runs the economy better. . Besides that,…. no one has to listen to anyone else bad mouthing Trump. All voters should have to do is listen to what Trump himself has said on videos, recordings or written documentation and you would think that this evidence would be enough to insure he does not get their vote. That logic does not work for Rednecks. I can understand why the majority of the 1% would vote for him. but why would anyone else? USA TODAY analysis finds 3,500 legal actions by and against Trump, fighting everyone from the government to the vodka makers” is enough to a red flag to discourage his voters. While Hilary will win, it is hard to comprehend that nearly 40% of our society is still racist not smart enough to choose what is best for our country. They prefer a man who has no previous governmental background, who cheats contractors who worked for him, who is a total chauvinistic pig and a racist. By the way,… this is the guy who is so smart that he lost nearly a billion dollar, and we want him running our economy? This is the only person running for President in over 40 years who won’t provide his income tax results. Why, because it would prove he did not pay any, and probably does not give to charities. The people who are voting for him are the same people who would buy a bottle of water from him if he told them it would provide them with eternal life. They watch world wrestling and belief it is real.

        • if you honestly think your taxes wont be affected by hillary’s plans you are drinking the democratic cool-aid. give me one policy she has had success with that she thought of herself? lie after lie and you think she will be good for our country?? her only reason to vote for her is that she is a woman! OMG how stupid people can be to believe her.

        • First of all, genius, Trump has paid more taxes then you will every dream of possessing. Every purchase he makes, every sale, everything, he paid a sales tax for. Now you think he is dirty for following laws and saving money? No income tax doesn’t mean he didn’t pay taxes. Would you be willing to share how much you paid in taxes last year? Oh, and if you paid in $5000 and got a $10000 tax return because of your allowances, you really didn’t pay any taxes, you actually took money from someone else who actually paid them….

          • I’m pretty sure anyone who paid what they were supposed to in income tax would have no problem sharing that, especially if they’re running for office. Hence why every candidate in history has done it.

      • You people need to learn to talk to each other, not just run talking points at each other. Each of you is spouting the story you’ve been fed by your own side. Are you foolish enough to believe that your side is 100% true and the other side 100% false. That’s the real problem in this country, we can’t talk to each other, we can’t compare notes, we can’t say – “hey, you’be got a point there”. WE cant’ debate without being sure we are right on every point, and we never learn and the 2 parties split us up and we hate each other. That is way bad F’d up, and we’ve got to stop seeing each other as the enemy.

    • I am convinced that the Clinton voting public is just as much under a mass delusion as they have fallen hook line and sinker for this criminal, if they think Clinton is the better choice. Expect at least 4 years of the country being dragged through scandal after scandal and probably even a Constitutional crisis. Let’s not forget the number 2 man, Tom Kaine. The Joker himself will be running this country if she has to be removed. Yes, Tim ( I believe white people should be in the minority) Kaine. God help us all.

      • When the truth comes out, the liberal little autobots can only spew “You’re a (fill in the blank)-phobe” or their little go to, calling you a Nazi. Nevermind they have the fascist attitude if you don’t buy into their BS, calling you intolerant. It’s THE classic instance of projection, they are neither tolerant of you or your beliefs.

  2. According to huffington post.ILOL! Libz, u ppl r freaking retarded in you’re cognitive skills and critical thinking. U had 2 chances to make sense in last 8 yrs and like Mrs. Honesty and integrity herself, you are about to blow a 99 point lead with 10 seconds left, freaks.

    • No way ! the founding fathers are devoted Christians so the tradition will continue in that way . who owns this country ? it’s CITIZENS periods.

      • The founding father were not all strictly Christians. Paine, Franklin, and Jefferson were Deists. Adams was a Congregationalist turned Unitarian – “ish”. Hamilton found Christ after the death of his son and was not a devoutly religious man beforehand. Before then he was Anglican. Madison had no declared religious belief. Washington is debatable as he never strongly declared an affiliation with any faith in public.

      • No, that’s not true. The Founding Fathers were deists . . . that is why the separation of church and state was so critical to them, as witnessed in the Constitution. Since you don’t like the separation of church and state, you could always become a Muslim, as their belief is that church and state should be integrated, just like you do.

        • This comment is as incorrect as can be. SOME Founding Fathers were ‘deists’ but EVEN THEY were aware of the values of Ango-Saxon laws, based on Judeo-Christian values.

          That is as sure as the Sun rising every day. Stop misleading people.

        • I just wish the founding fathers had put in term limits for EVERYONE, Congress, Senate, President AND all judges. We wouldn’t be in the mess we’re in now with career politicians who are pretty much all scum to begin with or turn out that way once in this corrupt system. Article V convention of states is the only way to go now.

  3. They are making assumptions that ballots from certain areas are voting a certain way, but with no proof as the votes are not counted until election day!!!

    • Hundreds of recent polls (nationally & all the states) keep showing where 90% of Democrats are voting for Hillary, and 75% of Republicans are backing Trump.

      • Actually, it’s closer to 85 percent of republicans for Trump if you look at the aggregate of polls. He’s behind in party loyalty, though, and he will still probably lose pretty big.

  4. The Good Shepherd will protect the flock from wolves he will close the door to the sheep pen to keep the wolves out with good walls and guards at the gate.

    • Now there’s a self-aggrandizing, disparaging mockery of the Bible . . . when I read the so-called Christian values on this blog, it reminds me of something Mark Twain once wrote: “If Christ were here today, there is one thing he would not be–a Christian!”

  5. Things like this keeps me laughing, What it tell me is this. If your in need of a transplant do you contact a specialist or call your dumb ass neighbor to do the Surgery. Trump is your dumb ass neighbor. Naturally your going to seek someone with more professional experience. It’s like those that haven’t lifted a finger to fight for this country raise the most hell because you look for me and my fellow veteran family & friends for protection. So you can live your dreams and have a productive life. It’s sad that you forget about the ones that protect you when a crisis arise. Trump like war as long as his coward ass don’t have to fight it. Wake up fools if Trump is elected say good bye to your son’s and daughters. He rather see you loose your son’s and daughters than to loose his own. I still want to see his taxes

  6. Fast forward a few days later. Trump is leading in Ohio and Florida. Ohio is the bellweather state…

    As a former democrat, democrats have NO CREDIBILITY. PROJECT VERITAS! ALL Dem leaders implicated, ON VIDEO, resulting in the firing of 2 antagonists paid to incite violence at Trump rallies, Allan Schulkin admitting Dems bus illegal, ineligible voters into minority neighborhoods to cheat.

    Robert Creamer, paid to incite violence at Trump rallies, visited the White House 300 times…meeting with Obama 50 times.

    LIE, CHEAT, STEAL = DEMOCRATS

    NEVER VOTE FOR A DEM AGAIN!!!!!

  7. I am neither voting for Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton. I voted early and selected a write-in candidate: JESSE VENTURA FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA !!

  8. North Carolina early voting is a bit of a red herring. Early voting started days earlier in the cities than it did in the outlying areas. It is well known that the cities harbor many more democrats, so democrats got a few days more to vote. From my and other voters experience, there were no pollsters at any of the non city polling places. Of course the early votes will lean toward the democrats!

  9. I am so disappointed that people actually believe Hillary a career politician, or Trump a person who was born into money, and has admitted to using the very same politics to his advantage and has never cared about anything other than lining his own pockets will do anything for anyone. Instead of substance we have a circus that would make P.T Barnum jealous of this con portrayed on the American people.

  10. Your all wrong the public masses are given this game to play to make you think it’s the voters decision wich party and candidate will run the country for the next 8 yrs yes I said 8 while in actuality the real decisions are made by a group of unknowns who are internally embedded in this country through multiple generations of wealth. For fun let’s nominate a “Joe the Plumber” and truly Make America Great Again

  11. Early voting is fine because it’s easier for many people who work or have other obligations on election day. However, allowing the public to know the results is a practice that should be abolished. If John is ahead than others might go out and vote for Joan and vice versa. It’s a ridiculous system. Before early voting was in progress, no one knew the results until election day and that was fair. Polls on the other hand are o.k. because they aren’t definite.

  12. I don’t vote for anyone in bed with Putin. He’s a clear con man. Just look at what he accomplished in Atlantic City–sucked it dry and left Atlantic County taxpayers with enough debt to pay off in 50 years. He’d love to pee away your money and run building some Babel tower and walking away. He’s great at walking away from West Point, from taxes, from responsible behavior, grabbing all he can get.

  13. Okay, so let’s start with the fact that early absentee returns are projected by CNN, really! Then let’s look at the truth! Statewide more republicans are sending in absentee ballots, at 42% to Dems at 34%. As for the “Latino” vote, we must consider the reason they are absentee ballots. When we verify those absentee ballots, we’ll find that better than 38% are invalid and illegal!!
    So can CA turn back the clock to 1988 for a win, no one really knows. But I suspect it will be much closer than the Libs and illegal immigrants think!!