Early Voting Results: Do They Show Polls Were Wrong? Or Right?
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Early Voting Results: Do They Show Polls Were Wrong? Or Right?

Early voting results in the 2016 presidential election are rolling in from states around the country, and so far, the numbers show few surprises and appear to be confirming what most polls have said throughout most of the campaign and in particular for the last few weeks — that Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a solid lead and her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, faces a steep uphill battle if he plans to turn the results around in the 12 days remaining before the November 8 national vote.

The New York Times Upshot — the Times’ data journalism and polling analysis section — on Thursday began posting its estimate of how the final vote tally will turn out in North Carolina, based on a statistical analysis of early voting results. According to Upshot, early voting indicates that Clinton will win the Tar Heel State with 49.1 percent of the vote. Trump will place a distant second at 43.1 percent — a full 6 percentage points.

How do those North Carolina projections based on early voting compare to current poll numbers across the country?

According to the Huffington Post Pollster.com average of all presidential polls pitting Trump against Clinton — and including Stein and Johnson — Clinton holds a lead of 45.9 percent to 39.4 percent.

While the various poll aggregators have varying methods of computing their averages, the Pollster.com national average agrees closely with the national polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight.com, which shows Clinton with 45.7 to 39.9 for Trump.

By comparison, in the 2012 presidential election, Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney by under four points, 51.1 to 47.2.

Early Voting Results, Hillary Clinton Donald Trump polls, are the polls wrong, are polls skewed,

Hillary Clinton campaigns in the early voting state of North Carolina on Thursday. (Getty)

The various states where early voting is underway have also shown results consistent with the polling averages for those states, according to political scientist and early voting expert analyst Michael McDonald of the University of Florida.

In Nevada, McDonald wrote earlier this week, “there is nothing in these early voting numbers that contradict recent polling showing Clinton taking a lead in the state.”

The same holds true in California, Ohio, Florida and Virginia, McDonald added.

The California results are notable however, not because they show Clinton cruising to an expected victory — with registered Democrats returning their vote-by-mail ballots at rate 25 percent over the rate in the 2012 election, and Republicans up only six percent — but because of the extraordinary spike in Latino voting, reflected in the early voting numbers.

Latino voters, as the above chart reveals, have returned California vote-by-mail ballots at a rate 45 percent higher than four years ago.

One state that shows a slight but significant difference between early voting and and polling numbers is the traditionally Republican-voting Arizona. With the lone exception of Bill Clinton in 1996, no Democrat has carried Arizona since Harry Truman in 1948. And Trump currently holds a narrow lead of 1.3 percentage points there, according to the Pollster.com average.

Early Voting Results, Hillary Clinton Donald Trump polls, are the polls wrong, are polls skewed,

Donald Trump campaigning in Ohio where he and Clinton are running neck-and-neck in polls. (Getty)

But analysis of early voting in Arizona as of October 27, shows a surge in Democratic ballots returned compared to 2012, when Republican Romney beat Democratic incumbent President Obama by more than 10 points.

According to a CNN count, Democrats are running 4,116 returned ballots ahead of Republicans as of Thursday. But at the same point in the process four years ago, the GOP held a solid 21,179 ballot lead.

Early voting was heavy in Arizona in 2012, with two-thirds of all voters in the state casting their ballots prior to election day. If that trend holds in 2016, Clinton stands a strong chance to turn the state “blue,” in what would be one if the biggest upsets of the election.

65 Comments

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65 Comments

Donna M

Forget about the Zombie apocalypse, that will never happen….Worry about the Freakin idiot apocalypse that is running for President, ( The Orange man) aka trump….

Bob

What a moron you are. If you think Hillary is a better choice, you have your head so far up their ass you’ll need a proctologist to get it out. Lets see… she’ll give us higher taxes to support her socialist ideology. A furtherance of Obamacare, which will be bankrupting our wallets with premium increases soon. She wants more Muslims pouring into the country, many of whom with ties to ISIS. More southern border crossers stealing our jobs and committing crime. More dependency on Arabs for oil & gas…and the list goes on. It takes a complete idiot to vote for any democrat. It takes an even bigger idiot to vote for Clinton #TRUMP2016 #NEVERHILLARY

Colby Fulton

Higher taxes? Only if you and your wife have a combined income of over $450,000. If you do make that much, congrats and pay your fair share or get out.

Bob

Is that what you gullible fools believe on the left? Fine, then lets go with what we do know for certain and this is just ONE thing of many. She will NOT be eliminating Obamacare, the most ineffective & costly program ever to be unleashed upon the public, by the most failed President in modern history. Obamacare is socialism at its absolute most evident, AND at its worst. Skyrocketing premiums for completely ineffective medical care. Hmm, sound a little like Canada’s system? Sure does, where people with cancer often wait to have a procedure so long, that they are DEAD before the date arrives. You lefty clowns are unbelievable. Liberalism is truly a mental illness #TRUMP2016 #NEVERHILLARY

Anonymous

Since you claim that Obama is the most failed President in history, please tell me how he failed worse than each of his 40+ predecessors . . . oh, I’m sorry, I forgot . . . Trump supporters are ignorant of history, and prefer to rant dreck hoping a fellow imbecile will believe them!!!

Drew Bowler

How about that he has doubled the debt in 8 years from what it took 200+ years to accumulate to that point? Couple that with the politicization of the “Justice” Department, the dismal failure of Odumbocare, the circumvention of the Constitution at every whim, Fast and Furious (one of the guns the federal government sent to Mexico in this gun-running scheme to garner support for gun confiscations ended up used at the 2015 Paris terror attack and another from one of the same FFL dealers in the program to end up used at the Muhammed cartoon shooting in Garland not to mention one being used to kill ICE agent Brian Terry and no telling how many other slayings in Mexico and beyond), and the list goes on and on and on, ad nauseum. The fools that follow their failed “Great Leader” are mindless little autobots dribbling whatever they read on the Onion, Politico or whatever yellow journalism rag that’s chic for the mindless trolls more interested in cult of personality than facts….

Anonymous

It’s easy; Obama failed to be as white as the other forty. That really pisses off the angry white man contingent that Trump draws his support from.

Anonymous

Bob, are you that insecure that instead of refuting Colby’s claims you had to indulge in moronic bullying. Then Trump supporters wonder why the Undecided are running to Hillary!

Josh Gilman

Fast forward a few days later. Trump is leading in Ohio and Florida. Ohio is the bellweather state…

As a former democrat, democrats have NO CREDIBILITY. PROJECT VERITAS! ALL Dem leaders implicated, ON VIDEO, resulting in the firing of 2 antagonists paid to incite violence at Trump rallies, Allan Schulkin admitting Dems bus illegal, ineligible voters into minority neighborhoods to cheat.

Robert Creamer, paid to incite violence at Trump rallies, visited the White House 300 times…meeting with Obama 50 times.

LIE, CHEAT, STEAL = DEMOCRATS

NEVER VOTE FOR A DEM AGAIN!!!!!

Anonymous

You’re an idiot. There is now evidence that the Clinton Foundation has been used to gain profit for the Clintons. Hundreds of millions in profit. You really think she won’t go after the middle class, when she has no problem taking money raised to benefit children and broken communities? Moron, all she cares about is money and power, and she will do and say whatever she needs to to get it. When she has it, you’re going to be left to die just like the Americans in Benghazi.

Anonymous

Colby you are correct,…. and yet many of the rest of the 99% will still vote for the orange idiot. The same people are not even intelligent enough to compare the economy under Bill C, “The Bush” and Obama years and come away with a pragmatic assessment of what party runs the economy better. . Besides that,…. no one has to listen to anyone else bad mouthing Trump. All voters should have to do is listen to what Trump himself has said on videos, recordings or written documentation and you would think that this evidence would be enough to insure he does not get their vote. That logic does not work for Rednecks. I can understand why the majority of the 1% would vote for him. but why would anyone else? USA TODAY analysis finds 3,500 legal actions by and against Trump, fighting everyone from the government to the vodka makers” is enough to a red flag to discourage his voters. While Hilary will win, it is hard to comprehend that nearly 40% of our society is still racist not smart enough to choose what is best for our country. They prefer a man who has no previous governmental background, who cheats contractors who worked for him, who is a total chauvinistic pig and a racist. By the way,… this is the guy who is so smart that he lost nearly a billion dollar, and we want him running our economy? This is the only person running for President in over 40 years who won’t provide his income tax results. Why, because it would prove he did not pay any, and probably does not give to charities. The people who are voting for him are the same people who would buy a bottle of water from him if he told them it would provide them with eternal life. They watch world wrestling and belief it is real.

nickv

if you honestly think your taxes wont be affected by hillary’s plans you are drinking the democratic cool-aid. give me one policy she has had success with that she thought of herself? lie after lie and you think she will be good for our country?? her only reason to vote for her is that she is a woman! OMG how stupid people can be to believe her.

Anonymous

Somebody’s gotta’ pay taxes to make up for Donnie Boy’s not paying taxes for 18+ years!

Anonymous

First of all, genius, Trump has paid more taxes then you will every dream of possessing. Every purchase he makes, every sale, everything, he paid a sales tax for. Now you think he is dirty for following laws and saving money? No income tax doesn’t mean he didn’t pay taxes. Would you be willing to share how much you paid in taxes last year? Oh, and if you paid in $5000 and got a $10000 tax return because of your allowances, you really didn’t pay any taxes, you actually took money from someone else who actually paid them….

Anonymous

I’m pretty sure anyone who paid what they were supposed to in income tax would have no problem sharing that, especially if they’re running for office. Hence why every candidate in history has done it.

Gary Siegel

You people need to learn to talk to each other, not just run talking points at each other. Each of you is spouting the story you’ve been fed by your own side. Are you foolish enough to believe that your side is 100% true and the other side 100% false. That’s the real problem in this country, we can’t talk to each other, we can’t compare notes, we can’t say – “hey, you’be got a point there”. WE cant’ debate without being sure we are right on every point, and we never learn and the 2 parties split us up and we hate each other. That is way bad F’d up, and we’ve got to stop seeing each other as the enemy.

Angelo Arnone

I am convinced that the Clinton voting public is just as much under a mass delusion as they have fallen hook line and sinker for this criminal, if they think Clinton is the better choice. Expect at least 4 years of the country being dragged through scandal after scandal and probably even a Constitutional crisis. Let’s not forget the number 2 man, Tom Kaine. The Joker himself will be running this country if she has to be removed. Yes, Tim ( I believe white people should be in the minority) Kaine. God help us all.

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