Presidential Polls 2016: Who Is Ahead After Debate?

presidential polls, latest, current, who won, ahead, debate, donald trump vs. hillary clinton

The post-debate polling results are starting to be released. (Getty)

It has been a week since Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton squared off in their first presidential debate. The majority of polls and pundits show Clinton won the debate, but the post-debate bump in polling may not be as high as Clinton supporters would like.

The FOX News poll shows Clinton with a five point lead and the PPP poll has Clinton with a four point lead. A poll conducted by The Los Angeles Times shows Trump with a five point lead. According to FiveThirtyEight, the poll includes data from both before and after the debate.

Early polling in 11 swing states showed Clinton leading in all 11 states after the debate. Her bump in the general polling numbers could be as little as 1 or 2 percentage points.

According to 270towin.com, Clinton has a projected 200-163 lead in the electoral college total. There are an additional 175 votes up for grabs in the swing states based on the latest projections. The winning candidate will need 270 votes to win.

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Clinton a 65.2 percentage point chance of winning in November. The first Vice Presidential debate takes place October 4 while the second presidential debate will be October 9.

Here’s a look at the latest post-debate polling numbers.


RealClear Politics Average: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClear Politics keeps a running average of the Trump vs. Clinton polls. The average includes data from ten polls. The LA Times/USC Tracking poll conducted September 26-October 2, the FOX News poll conducted September 27-29, the PPP poll conducted September 27-28, the Gravis poll conducted September 27, the Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted September 22-26, the Quinnipiac poll conducted September 22-25, the Bloomberg poll conducted September 21-24, the Monmouth poll conducted September 22-25, the Economist/YouGov poll conducted September 22-24 and the NBC News/SM poll conducted September 19-25.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Hillary Clinton 47.5
Donald Trump 45.0

LA Times/USC Tracking

The LA Times/USC Tracking poll conducted September 26-October 2. It has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 47
Hillary Clinton 42

FOX News

The FOX News poll was conducted September 27-29. It has a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Hillary Clinton 49
Donald Trump 44

PPP

The PPP poll was conducted September 27-28. It has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Hillary Clinton 49
Donald Trump 45

Gravis

The Gravis poll was conducted September 27. It has a margin of error of 1.7 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Hillary Clinton 50
Donald Trump 50

RealClear Politics Average: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

RealClear Politics keeps a running average of the four-way polls. The average includes data from eight polls. The Rasmussen Reports poll conducted September 28-October 2, the FOX News poll conducted September 27-29, the PPP poll conducted September 27-28, the Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted September 22-26, the Quinnipiac poll conducted September 22-25, the Bloomberg poll conducted September 21-24, the Monmouth poll conducted September 22-25 and the Economist/YouGov poll conducted September 22-24.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Hillary Clinton 43.4
Donald Trump 40.9
Gary Johnson 7.3
Jill Stein 2.4

Rasmussen Reports

The Rasmussen Reports poll was conducted September 28-October 2. It has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Hillary Clinton 43
Donald Trump 40
Gary Johnson 8
Jill Stein 2

FOX News

The FOX News poll was conducted September 27-29. It has a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Hillary Clinton 43
Donald Trump 40
Gary Johnson 8
Jill Stein 4

PPP

The PPP poll was conducted September 27-28. It has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Hillary Clinton 44
Donald Trump 40
Gary Johnson 6
Jill Stein 1

7 Comments

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7 Comments

manigordo

the same erroneous thing has been said time and time again. the most recent example that comes to mind is the no vote on the defective and silly ‘culombian’ farc peace deal. ppl just don’t get that is not pc to say outloud that you were against the issue at hand; until actually came the time to vote, of course…

Anonymous

She’s a lying heartless murderous bitch that should be in prison. Thank God she’ll only last maybe a year.

Anonymous

How could you talk about God and use such derogatory term in the same sentence. You clearly know nothing about God!

Anonymous

Everything said about Clinton’s murders are just conspiracy theories, now everything said about Trump (evading taxes, bankrupting may times, insulting more than half of the world, etc. etc.) ALL is a FACT

Tom

But then there is this one nagging thing called the truth. Clinton is criminal, cheat, liar, thief, murderer, derelict, disgusting, foul, bitter…so, except for the truth that Hillary is worse than Obama…if that were possible.

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