2016 Exit Polls vs. Actual Results: Here’s What May Have Happened

2016 exit polls, Did Clinton win election, voter fraud 2016, presidential exit polls, Did Donald Trump lose election, 2016 Presidential Election, results, Wisconsin results, 2016 popular Vote, Michigan results, Pennsylvania results, rigged election

According to 2016 exit polls, Hillary Clinton (above) won four key swing states and should have won the election. What happened? (Getty)

Exit polls from the 2016 presidential election showed Hillary Clinton winning four crucial swing states that, when the final vote tallies came in, were actually won by Donald Trump. The discrepancy between the exit poll results and the raw vote total count has led to suspicions that the election was “rigged” in favor of Trump.

Was it? And what do the exit polls actually tell us about who won the election?

Using exit poll totals compiled by election researcher Theodore de Macedo Soares, seen in the table below on this page as well as available at this link, compared to an ongoing tally of raw votes totals posted at this link by Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report, here is the discrepancy that has caused the suspicions of what Trump himself would call a “rigged election.”

Note that actual vote totals are compiled as of November 16.


FLORIDA — 29 Electoral Votes

(numbers equal percentage points)

Exit Polls: Clinton 47.7, Trump 46.4 — Clinton wins by 1.3

Actual: Clinton 47.8, Trump 49.0 — Trump wins by 1.2

Trump gain between exit polls and actual results: 2.5


NORTH CAROLINA — 15 Electoral Votes

Exit Polls: Clinton 48.6, Trump 46.5 — Clinton wins by 2.1

Actual: Clinton 46.1, Trump 49.9 — Trump wins by 3.8

Trump gain: 5.9


PENNSYLVANIA — 20 Electoral Votes

Exit Polls: Clinton 50.5, Trump 46.1 — Clinton wins by 4.4

Actual: Clinton 47.6, Trump 48.8 — Trump wins by 1.2

Trump gain: 5.6


WISCONSIN — 10 Electoral Votes

Exit Polls: Clinton 48.2, Trump 44.3 — Clinton wins by 3.9

Actual: Clinton 47.6, Trump 48.8 — Trump wins by 1.2

Trump gain: 5.1


2016 exit polls, Did Clinton win election, voter fraud 2016, presidential exit polls, Did Donald Trump lose election, 2016 Presidential Election, results, Wisconsin results, 2016 popular Vote, Michigan results, Pennsylvania results, rigged election

Exit poll table compiled by TDMSResearch.com.

The final Electoral College vote totals show Trump, including the four states listed above, earning 306 electoral votes. Clinton collected 232.

With 270 of the 538 available required to win the presidency, Clinton fell 38 electoral votes short of victory. If the exit polls had reflected actual results in any three out of the four swing states — Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Clinton would be president-elect today.

Also, if exit polls had been correct in Florida and only one of the other three swing states, Clinton would have won the election.

Clinton, as of November 16 with reportedly several million votes nationwide yet to be counted, led the national popular vote by 0.9 percentage points, or approximately 1.6 million votes.

So what happened? Here are four possible explanations, some of them innocent — others, maybe not so much.


Exit Polls Don’t Fully Account for Early Voting

One firm, Edison Research, conducts exit polling for all major news outlets. Edison only recently started polling voters by phone prior to election day, to get statistics on early voting results. But the popularity of early and mail-in voting has exploded and Edison’s methods can’t keep up.

“The exit poll understands the huge role early voters will play — pollsters estimated to Pew that 35 to 40 percent of all voting will happen early this year — but it’s not clear that their polling can accurately capture who those people are,” explained Dara Lind of Vox.com in an article published last week. “It runs into the problems any phone poll has — namely, that it’s difficult to poll people who only have mobile phones. And because this year saw such a huge surge in early voting, it’s hard to use past years to predict how representative a sample is.”



The ‘Red Shift’ Phenomenon

Jonathan Simon, a researcher who has been studying exit poll data for 15 years and authored the book Code Red: Computerized Election Theft and the New American Century, says that his research has uncovered a pattern he has termed “red shift,” the tendency for exit polls to show lower results for “red,” or Republican, candidates compared to final vote totals.

“Election fraud has been occurring via the targeting and manipulation of computerized voting equipment across America,” Simon says in the publicity materials for his book.

But in an interview this week with the news site Raw Story, Simon was more restrained.

“We’re stuck at a place where I pivoted to is looking at the risk involved in having a computerized, privatized, unobservable vote counting system and just taking on faith that that system is not being manipulated when there is such a obvious vulnerability (on which the experts strongly agree) of the system to malfeasance and manipulation,” Simon told the site. “That is where I’ve tended to go, is to look at that risk rather than screaming fraud from the rooftops and claiming proof.”

Simon said that he’s reached the conclusion that due to the imprecise methodology of exit polls and the possibility of manipulation in computerized vote counts, neither system is trustworthy.


Voter Suppression

Investigative reporter Greg Palast alleges that voter suppression techniques employed by Republicans eliminated the votes of, potentially, millions of minority voters who would be expected to vote for the Democratic candidate.

“This country is violently divided. There simply aren’t enough white guys to elect Trump nor a Republican Senate,” Palast said in an interview TheLondonEconomic.com site. “The only way they could win was to eliminate the votes of non-white guys—and they did so by tossing black provisional ballots into the dumpster, new strict voter ID laws that saw students and low income voters turned away—the list goes on.”

Among the voter suppression methods identified by Palest, a multi-state system known as Crosscheck — supposedly designed to check for voters who have registered more than once, allegedly to prevent fraudulent multiple voting — may have wrongly invalidated thousands or even million of votes.


Exit Poll Data is Simply Not an Accurate Predictor of Vote Totals

Statisticians say that exit poll data, while well-intentioned, is inherently flawed as a way to predict final vote totals. Due to the need to compile nearly instantaneous results, exit pollsters rely on statistical models that may be outdated by the time an election rolls around.

“Edison developed its statistical models months before the vote, and long before there were any pre-election polls suggesting which candidate was likely to win a given race,” wrote Joshua Holand earlier this year in The Nation magazine. “Conspiracy theorists would have you believe that a corrupt wizard is sitting behind the curtains, making decisions about how to weight the data as the results come in order to cover up election theft. The reality is that Edison has a bunch of statistical models that have been sitting on a computer since last fall, and they plug information into them as it comes in.”

Statistician Nate Cohn of The New York Times Upshot has also warned of the unreliability of exit poll data.

“Exit polls are an exciting piece of Election Day information. They’re just not perfect. The problem with them is that most analysts and readers treat them as if they’re infallible,” Cohn wrote in 2014. “Once you realize that the exit polls aren’t perfect and start to ask yourself which results are actually right, it becomes clear that a lot of exit poll findings don’t quite work.”

While exit polling in other countries is often used as a method to check the accuracy of final totals and to detect fraud, those polls differ in significant respects from methods used in American election exit polls. For example, Holland explained, exit polls in other countries consist of only two questions in many cases, rather than the cumbersome list of 20 questions — or more — on U.S. exit polls.

The shorter polls lead to significantly higher rates of response, creating a larger sample size which gives a much better indicator of what the final result will be.


Read more about Donald Trump and Melania in Spanish at AhoraMismo.com:

90 Comments

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90 Comments

Violeta

The racist DONALD TRUMP said to CNN “I believe HITLER was RIGHT”. adr Donald Trump is a racist with SEWER and the DailyStormer, he listens to satanic 666 racist music… just google “Donald Trump SEWER 2154” and see FOR YOURSELF!! THE MUSIC ge VIDEO IS about the KKK and Adfolf Hitler raping a 12 year old African-American WOMAN OF COLOR in front of her parents and then hanging MLK with Emma Watson and Taylor Swift!! TAYLOR SWIFT the racist white privileged cvnt said she voted “for donald trump twice” in her OWN WORDS!!! Say no to hate, say no to SEWER, say no to q DONALD TRUMP and EMMA WATSON and Tatylor Swift !! Deport racism today vpg.

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Aaron Dietz

Interesting that CNN’s exit poll results don’t match what was captured in the table above–maybe they did on November 10, but if you look at their results now, you will not get such divergent numbers. Compare New Jersey, for example–this table shows exit polls saying Clinton is at 59.8% and Trump at 35.8%. The numbers CNN has on their website currently (if you adjust for percentage of female to male voters) comes to Clinton at 54.6% to Trump’s 41.9%. What changed? Amazingly, instead of a 11-point shift toward Trump the numbers now only show a 1.2% shift.

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Zoe Olivia Fleming

I am a white woman with a Law degree. I was always liberal and always voted for the democrat. I suffered for years hoping we would win. I could not tolerate Hiliary Clinton, and am proud to say I did not vote for her. I voted for Trump. I would not honestly answer any polls on my choice. I was shocked to learn first hand that the harassment is unconscionable if you say you are going to vote as a Republican. If the Democratic Party wishes to win it needs to select candidates who appeal to all voters and to not ignore it’s former base much less insult it.

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Anonymous

Olivia, I hope this is the name of your enemy because “I disagreed that “Hillary is God” in a public forum” = “my life is ruined”.

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Catharine Page-Lekas

How about this: Republicans, possibly with the help of proprietary software machines, hacking, and plain cheating, colluded to mis-count the real vote in the four swing states.

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Zoe Olivia Fleming

How about this: the people spoke through the duly authorized system and Mr Trump won! Thank God the Clinton Machine didn’t!

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Nathan Koenig

She didn’t seem to care when exit polls did not match the results during the primaries when it was screwing Bernie Sanders over. Well, she might have cared enough to get her friends in the DNC to stop using the exit polls for the rest of the primaries so we could not see the actual discrepancies any more.While exit polls are not perfect, they do have a long history of fairly accurately representing the people’s thoughts on the election. Don’t take this the wrong way, though, I am not in any way pleased that Trump is going to be our president. Just pointing out the hypocrisy of many democrats being pissed about how the general election went down, but were fine when Clinton was using the same tactics against someone running under the same party as her. Seems like karma to me.

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Tosin Otitoju

Why should black votes matter when not even black lives matter? Have you seen, they just murder black people in America. They would of course throw their votes in the bin too.
#NeverTrump Never ever ever trump.

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Colleen

When they say it was rigged in favour of Trump, I beg to differ…it was rigged in favour of Hillary…who did the 3,000,000 illegal aliens vote for…a big resounding HILLARY. Who did the dead people vote for? HILLARY. How about the ones that voted 3 & 4 times…their choice and vote went to Hillary…Who was in Control it was the DNC the Democrats. Did Donald Trump stuffed the boxes with Hillary votes then on election night get out the fake ballots and switched them with the real ballots. Hillary didn’t win the popular vote, she couldn’t fill a town hall meeting with more than about 200 supporters, she had to hire seat sitters to fill her seats…Tim KIaine had two large rally’s one drew a crowd of 30 people and the other drew a crowd of 24 people. Donald Trump had thousands, 10, 15, and 20,000 supporters came to every rally he had…Hillary was the one that hired protesters to cause as much trouble as they could at Trump Rally’s…Hillary is bought and paid for by George Soros…..Who in their right mind would put Soros in the Whitehouse…that would be a crime against the people and the nation…how can anyone even consider a Hillary White-house? Any one that has been so heavily bought by Soros should be banned fro public office….What Soros has done down through the years to the election is a crime…he gets away with it It’s time to stop him dead in his tracks.. When you look at the sorry state of the country, you can look straight at George Soros, his goal is to destroy the USA, as he has destroyed how many other countries …this man is a menace to every nation around the world…he need to be stopped , he need to be charged and sent to prison for the rest of his natural life. moveon.org is funded, and more than likely owned by George Soros…moveon.org has sent a petition to the electoral college with well over 400,000 signatures asking them to vote against Trump…George Soros is using blind fools to demand they not support Trump. Soros is a rotten dirty criminal. that needs to be sitting behind bars. It is time to wake up and put him right where he belongs

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LM

Illegal aliens did not vote in this country. That is compete Breitbard right wing conspiracy theory BS. What is true is that several types of voter suppression were implemented to keep minorities from voting. Turn off your fake news channel and become a human being. You blather like a crazy person.

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Earl Decker

HaHaHa- Too bad Hillary losers-Exit polls and popular votes do not win presidential elections in America. Trump won 306 to Hillary’s 232. Recount all you want but Trump will still be the 45th president of the USA.

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Horatio

In your list of what went wrong, why do you not also look at the possibility that the vote was not counted accurately?
Maybe the exit polls were right and the final count was wrong. Lord knows our systems are highly fallible, especially some of those antiquated voting machines. There is also the possibility of hacking and foul play.

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Zoe Olivia Fleming

If there ever was a case of blatant election fraud and integrity then where was the concern when HiLIARy stole the nomination from Bernie??? Hypocrites.

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gladgold

donald trump,it doesnot matter that hillary congratulated you,she did that because she is a proper woman,it means nothing.now that your so called victory is becoming fake, why not accept it.look its only a matter of some short time the american people will know who truly won the election.darkness will never overcome light.

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Matt

One thing not mentioned is the MOST important reason why the exit polls did not reflect the actual ones. The media oversampled Democrats on their polls. That’s it Plain and simple.

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Hocking Hick

Exit polls are inaccurate simply because racist, sexist, homophobes, and religious bigots don’t want their neighbors to know what extreme POSs they are.

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paris23

More fake polling. Who can believe their polls? They did not produce an honest poll all year, but we are to believe THESE POLLS are legitimate? Why? On what grounds? They will lie,cheat, steal and kill if it helps them to get elected. Can’t wait to be done with these criminals.

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Phucktrump

Fact:
tRump lost and now it’s time for jail.
get ready for an epic beat down you ignorant, lying inbred trumpanzees

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Pat

Exit polls used to call elections in most data rich countries in the world? Absurd!
Why not just flip a coin?

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william A. Garza

A Major Crime was committed. The Election was RIGGED and an investigation is warrented. Not only will Hillary win the popular vote by nearly 3 million, The Congressional Republicans lost seats in both Houses. Election Day EXIT POLLING showed Hillary winning in four battleground states. Trump and his campaign was shocked that he had won. Even if they don’t give the election to Hillary…She clearly won easily……….ANY Blind person can see that…..It’s time for wikileaks to come clean

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frankblank1

Here’s the story. This might be too complicated for a Trump Pet to understand: 1964>>theSouthern Strategy/the Silent Majority>>Nixon The Criminal >> Reagan’s
Welfare Queen>>Reagan>>Reagan Democrats>>Angry White Working Class Idiots>>Redistricting/Voter Suppression / Fixed Elections >> Psychotic Liar and Thief Trump.

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Pat

Not recognizing the effect of Alles and his media involvement when assessing the electoral college vote is bizzarre for a country capable of greater accuracy in poll counting, and election counting. The disparity between voting projection on election day (as devined and reported by media, now its own multicorpoational special interest, is so great relative to the actual vote ( not available at the time of election) two weeks later is too great not be trigger an automatic recount when two persons of vastly different compencies (an obvious conclusion) the least favored, and most unpopular person wns such an election, given the tactics used during the election rallies.

Much like a stramroller, Trump has taken possession of the office, rather or not people imagine he was elected by voting mandate, and virtually assures impeahmemt, and perhaps, worse… Criminal activities for which he has been, and is being given a low bar pass ….to accelerate his Presidency even before installation. Something’s rotten in Denmark? But is America or media asking the right questions? Railroads are tracks like footprints!

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