Arizona has unexpectedly become a battleground state in 2016, and with six days left to go until Election Day, Hillary Clinton is still within a few points of Trump in the polls.
As of November 2nd, Real Clear Politics’ polling average shows Trump ahead of Clinton by three percentage points. For comparison, heading into the 2012 election, Mitt Romney was ahead of Barack Obama by 7.5 percentage points; he ended up winning with 53 percent of the vote.
Most election forecasts are predicting that Donald Trump will retain Arizona, but they’re much less certain about that than you would expect considering that no Republican has lost Arizona since 1996. FiveThirtyEight forecasts that Trump has a 66.2 percent chance of winning the state, while The New York Times’ The Upshot gives him a 65 percent chance and PredictWise gives him a 73 percent chance.
This all means that Hillary Clinton has a better chance of winning Arizona than Trump has of winning Pennsylvania.
Here are some of the recent Arizona presidential election polls.
CNN/ORC: Trump Ahead by Five Points
In the newest CNN/ORC poll released on November 2nd, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by five points. The poll was conducted by speaking to 769 likely voters from October 27th through November 1st, primarily after the news broke that the FBI would be investigating emails that may be relevant to their probe into Hillary Clinton’s private server. The margin of error on the poll is 3.5 percentage points.
Hillary Clinton is closer to Trump in this poll than she was in August; at that time, Donald Trump had 49 percent of the vote, the same as he does today, but Hillary Clinton only had 38 percent of the vote.
It seems that a part of that gain may be due to Gary Johnson supporters abandoning him for one of the two major candidates. In August, 12 percent of those polled said they would be voting for Gary Johnson, but in this new poll, only five percent were still behind him.
When asked what issues each candidate would better handle as president, Donald Trump scored better than Hillary Clinton on the economy, immigration, terrorism, health care, and trade. The only issue where voters thought Hillary Clinton would do a better job was foreign policy.
Interestingly, although Donald Trump leads Clinton in the poll, 51 percent of voters said Clinton could handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief compared to 41 percent who said the same of Donald Trump. Also, 56 percent of voters said Clinton has the temperament to be president compared to 34 percent who said that of Trump. However, the two candidates were tied when it comes to having a vision for the future; 45 percent of voters said Hillary Clinton has a vision for the future, and 45 percent said Donald Trump does.
CBS News/YouGov: Trump Ahead by Two Points
The latest poll from CBS News/YouGov has Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by two points. The poll was conducted from October 26th through October 28th by speaking to 994 likely voters. The margin of error is 4.3 percentage points.
In this poll, Gary Johnson scored four percent of the vote, while nine percent of voters said that they would vote for someone else or that they were not sure for whom they would vote.
This poll also found that Donald Trump supporters are much more enthusiastic about him than Hillary Clinton supporters are of her. Among Donald Trump’s supporters, a majority – 54 percent – said they are more enthusiastic about him than they have been about presidential candidates in the past. Meanwhile, among Hillary Clinton’s supporters, 37 percent said they were more enthusiastic about her than past candidates, while 35 percent said they are less enthusiastic than usual, and 28 percent said their level of enthusiasm is about the same as it has been in the past.
In light of the recent news that Obamacare premiums are expected to go up next year, most Arizona voters said they still don’t want to repeal the law entirely. Of those polled, 51 percent said they want the law to be fixed while keeping the parts that work, while 44 percent want it to be repealed entirely. The former is Hillary Clinton’s position, while the latter is Donald Trump’s position.
Finally, most voters say they feel afraid of the candidate they are not supporting. When given five possible adjectives to describe their feelings about a candidate (excited, angry, scared, proud, or disappointed), a plurality of voters – 42 percent – chose “scared” for Trump, and a plurality of voters – again 42 percent – chose “scared” for Clinton.
Monmouth: Trump Ahead by One Point
The latest poll from Monmouth is another that has Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump within the margin of error. The poll was conducted by speaking to 401 likely voters from October 21st through October 24th. The margin of error is 4.9 percentage points.
Four percent of those polled said they would be supporting Gary Johnson, while one percent said they’d be supporting Jill Stein.
Clinton is doing quite well with the state’s Hispanic population, beating Trump 65 percent to 30 percent. Hispanic voters make up approximately one fifth of the state’s entire electorate. Meanwhile, Trump maintains a 56 percent lead among white voters.
Hillary Clinton is also doing well among early voters, with 52 percent of these Arizonans saying they voted for Clinton. But Trump is doing well among those who have yet to vote, with 49 percent of them saying they’re planning to vote for Trump.
Once again, both candidates have incredibly high unfavorable ratings in this poll, with 56 percent of voters having an unfavorable view of Donald Trump and 57 percent of voters having an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton.
Arizona Republic: Clinton Ahead by Five Points
A recent Arizona Republic poll paints a much different picture, with Clinton having a surprising lead over Donald Trump. The poll was conducted from October 10th through October 15th, and the margin of error is 4.3 percent.
This lead comes from a head-to-head matchup; when Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are thrown into the mix, six percent of voters went for Johnson, while less than one percent of voters went for Stein. A substantial number of voters, 20.7 percent, said they were still undecided.
Following the three presidential debates, 16.5 percent of voters said the debates made them more likely to support Hillary Clinton, while 9.2 percent said it made them more likely to support Donald Trump.
Emerson: Clinton Ahead by Two Points
Finally, an Emerson poll released on October 2nd showed Clinton ahead of Trump by two points in the state. The poll was conducted by speaking to 600 of Arizona’s likely voters. The margin of error is 3.9 percentage points.
Among the state’s Hispanic voters, Hillary Clinton maintains a double-digit lead, 54 percent to 40 percent.
The poll also found that not all of Bernie Sanders’ supporters in Arizona have come around to Hillary Clinton. Of those polled, 78 percent said they are now supporting Hillary Clinton, but seven percent said they’re supporting Donald Trump, 11 percent said they’re supporting Gary Johnson, and two percent said they aren’t sure.
However, another recent Emerson poll doesn’t look nearly as good for Clinton, with Trump ahead in this survey by four points.