Michigan is currently leaning towards Donald Trump, a state which just hours ago was thought to be a lock for Hillary Clinton. What happens if she loses Michigan? Will she be able to win the White House without it?
There are some paths for Clinton without Michigan, but if the state goes for Donald Trump, that is an extremely bad sign for the Clinton camp. A loss in the state would essentially make her the underdog in the race. Michigan is worth 16 Electoral College votes, and if Donald Trump wins Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, New Hampshire and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, but Hillary Clinton takes Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Nevada, and Minnesota, Donald Trump will become the next president of the United States.
Without Michigan, Clinton first needs to take New Hampshire away from Donald Trump. This brings her to 262 Electoral College votes. She could also flip Iowa, which would bring her to 268. If she takes Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, the race would be tied 269 to 269.
So where else could Clinton go from there to push herself over 270? At this point, North Carolina becomes an absolute must win for Hillary Clinton, but Donald Trump currently leads in the state.
Clinton could also theoretically pick off Arizona from Donald Trump, but this looks rather unlikely at this point. There are few other states that Clinton could reasonably turn from red to blue after that.
Unexpectedly, then, Michigan has become absolutely key, and it may wind up deciding who is elected president.