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Clinton vs. Trump: Election Odds for Nov. 8

Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump

(Getty)

There have been a slew of polls and forecasts released in the final week leading up to today’s pivotal presidential election.

Most polls taken in the past few days show Hillary Clinton up a few points over Donald Trump nationally, but many of the battleground states still look close. What does that mean for each candidate’s odds of winning the election?

Most major election-modeling sites have Clinton’s chances of winning considerably higher than Trump’s, although some vary on how high her chances are. These forecasts also agree that Trump has a challenging path to the White House. Is an upset by the real estate mogul on Tuesday possible? The simple answer is yes, but it is unlikely given Clinton’s stronger position in the Electoral College. It comes down to plausible ways each candidate can reach 270 Electoral College points. In a nutshell, Clinton has more margin for error than Trump does based on the Electoral College map, and most political forecasters take that into account when making their prediction. For instance, New York Times’ latest Upshot model shows Clinton has 693 different ways to win the election, but Trump only has 315 ways to win.

However, Trump has battled back in several battleground states that could ultimately determine the outcome of the election. The tightening polls in states such as Florida and North Carolina is a big reason why some forecasts, such as Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight models show Trump near a 30 percent chance of winning– the highest of all forecasts.

The investigations into Clinton’s use of a private email server have now been concluded with no charges against the former secretary of state. Following the initial announcement of the FBI’s search into new emails, Clinton’s numbers took a hit, but have since slightly rebounded.

Clinton’s lead has fallen to an average of 3.2 points, according the the latest RealClearPolitics average. The drop is significant considering that on Oct. 18, Clinton held an 8-point advantage over Trump.

While Clinton’s lead over Trump has dropped, most polls show she has regained a few points in the last few days leading up to the Nov. 8 election.

The final week of the presidential campaign has seen Trump tighten the race after his numbers plummeted following a string of sexual assault allegations. In the past two weeks, Trump has regained some momentum, however election forecasts predict it isn’t enough the change the trajectory of the race.

Here’s a look at the latest forecast trends:


How Forecasts Compare

NYT Upshot: Clinton 85%, Trump 15%

The New York Times’ Upshot elections model indicates Clinton’s lead has dropped from 8.2 percentage points to 6.8 in the past week. However, Trump still has a a challenging path to the White House.

According to their model, Clinton has 693 different ways to win the election, but Trump only has 315 ways to win.

Based on the latest state and national polls, Upshot gives Clinton a solid 85 percent chance of winning the presidency compared to Trump’s 16 percent. To put it in sports terms, Upshot states Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an NFL kicker misses a 37-yard field goal.

Trump’s chances have increased due to his rise in several battleground states. For example, in Florida his chances have increased from 20 to 30 percent over the past two weeks. In Arizona, Trump also saw a jump from 57 to 81 percent in that same span of time.


FiveThirtyEight: Clinton 71.4%, Trump 28.6% (Polls-Only)

Over the past several weeks, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight forecasts have shown Clinton is highly favored to win on Nov. 8. However, all three of FiveThirtyEight’s models show the race has gradually tightened over the last week.

Clinton has a 71.4 percent chance of winning the election, according to the FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast. That’s up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night. This model indicates a Trump presidency is nearly twice as likely as Upshot suggests. Trump’s chances are down a few percentage points from a few days ago and currently stand at 28.6 percent.

Clinton’s projected margin of victory in the popular vote has increased to 3.5 percent from 2.9 percent.

Their polls-plus forecast shows Clinton has a 71.8 percent chance of taking the election. Trump has a 28.2 percent chance, which is nearly the same as last Tuesday which put him at 28.3. The polls-plus forecast takes into account the polls, economy and historical data to make a prediction.

As Silver points out, historically, there’s been a strong correlation between the number of undecided and third-party voters, and polling volatility, which the polls-plus model takes into account.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nowcast, which incorporates new polls very quickly, shows the Democratic nominee having a 71.4 percent chance of winning.

FiveThirtyEight shows Nevada, North Carolina and Florida flipped from red to blue over the course of Monday. Clinton’s chances of winning Florida increased to 48 percent to 54 percent. Clinton’s chances of winning North Carolina improved to 55.1 percent to Trump’s 44.9. It’s possible that North Carolina and Florida could flip back to Trump by Tuesday morning. However, FiveThirtyEight is showing Clinton has a more substantial lead in Nevada with a 57.9 percent chance of taking the state.


PredictWise: Clinton 88%, Trump 12%

In addition to polling-based models from FiveThirtyEight, there is the PredictWise model, which uses information from betting markets to make a prediction.

As of early Tuesday morning, PredictWise is giving Clinton an 88 percent chance of winning. PredictWise has projected a clear Clinton win for months. After the first presidential debate Trump’s odds took a hit, however, his numbers have been on a steady decline since a leaked 2005 recording in which he made lewd comments about women, which was followed by a string of sexual assault allegations.


Daily Kos: Clinton 92%, Trump 8%

Daily Kos shows Clinton currently has a 92 percent chance of winning the presidency, the highest of all forecasts. In a simulated electoral votes projection, Clinton has 323 compared to Trump’s 215. Their projection only takes into account current polling data. In their model, Clinton did not experience as much of a drop over the past week as some of the other election forecasts.

Electoral College: How Does it Work?

Here's an overview of how the electoral college works, and what you need to know as a voter.

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2 comments

  1. Reported by the Washington Post & Huffington Post
    Over the weekend, Trump had a disabled kid in a wheelchair thrown out of his rally, for holding a Clinton sign. The kid, who has cerebral palsy, asked his mother to bring him to the rally so he could protest Trump’s disparagement of the disabled. As the kid was wheeled out, people booed at him, kicked his chair & yelled obscenities at him. Trump verbally encouraged the crowd, pointed at the kid, shouting, “Get him out of here!”.
    This election is too unpredictable & too important to not vote or to waste a vote on a 3rd party. If we don’t vote for Clinton, we risk another election of 2000 scenario. Except Trump is more cruel, more ignorant & more dangerous than Bush ever was, for reasons that have been well documented. Please listen to the experts. Please Vote Clinton/Kaine 2016 if you want Obama’s legacy to continue, and if you want sanity rather than chaos to rule our government for the next 4 years.

    (Please share this story as a final reminder for why we need to keep Trump away from the Oval office. There’s too much at stake)

    • Whites Swing to “Race Trump’s Love”

      The election of 2016 may be close enough so that Love will Trump Hate in the national popular majority but for the white majority it appears that Race may Trump Love in the Electoral College.

      The racial terrorist Dylann Roof admitted that for a brief moment his hate was almost trumped my the love showed to him by the parishioners of the Charleston church in South Carolina. But then he regained his composure for white identity, and finally race would trump love as he commenced the massacre of the loving parishioners declaring “You rape our women and are taking over our country”.

      For a national majority Love Trumps Hate, but for a majority of the white electorate Race Trumps Love. The Trump surge among whites in swing states rises with purported “missteps” that secure his profile as a reliable racist with his base while remaining on message just enough to gain support and provide plausible deniability to undecided swing whites to vote for the candidate that guarantees domestic governmental amenities and national policies that prioritizes the preservation of white privilege.

      I’m afraid as we approach the end game that more of the Johnson supporters will prove to be soft and are more likely to come home to Trump. The Jill supporters are hard and are more likely to stay away from Hill. A rough estimate on how the Electoral College may go is to add most of the Johnson stats to Trump and subtract the Jill stats from Hill.