Clinton vs. Trump: Who Leads Battleground State Polls Nov. 6?
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Clinton vs. Trump: Who Leads Battleground State Polls Nov. 6?

donald trump, hillary clinton

Did Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton have greater numbers at their Cedar Rapids Rally? (Getty)

It’s two days before the general election, and all eyes are on the battleground states that will determine the presidency. Who’s leading on November 6?

Eight battleground states are virtual ties, Hillary Clinton leads in 5, and Donald Trump leads in 1.

The RealClearPolitics polling averages show that Clinton leads Trump nationally by 2.2% in the four-way race. The race tightened fairly dramatically since October 28, but, since November 1, Clinton’s national polling averages have stabilized somewhat. Still, her national polling average lead is in the margin of error. It’s the battleground states that will determine the race, though.

The battlegrounds remain a tight race. Clinton lost ground in almost every battleground state since October 27, the day before FBI Director James Comey sent his initial letter to Congress saying the FBI wanted to review newly discovered emails. On Sunday, Comey sent another letter saying the agency is not referring charges, but, for days, Clinton’s numbers eroded. That means the candidates head into Election Day with deadlocked races in key states. Showing the shifting nature of the race, RealClearPolitics has now removed Georgia from the battleground poll list (Trump leads) and has added New Mexico, where Clinton leads, but it’s tighter.

North Carolina voting, North Carolina early voting, winston salem early voting

Voters wait in line for casting their ballots during early voting for the 2016 general election at Forsyth County Government Center October 28, 2016 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Here’s the tale of the tape for November 6:

Battleground states where the race is a virtual tie (a candidate leads by 3% or less) (8): Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa.

Battleground states Trump leads (1): Arizona.

Battleground states Clinton leads (5): Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, Maine, New Mexico.

To show how tight the electoral college pathway remains for Trump, here is a map that gives Trump every battleground state where there is a virtual tie or that he leads.

trump

Look promising for Trump? The challenge for him is that there is almost no margin for error. He can’t afford to lose many states. She can, although some states are more critical than others. Do the math, and give Florida to Clinton in the map above. The race ties (and goes into the House of Representatives). Give her Colorado and Pennsylvania (the race ties). (If he could take Maine’s Second Congressional District, though, the victor of which gets one elector, and where the race is virtually tied, he would win with the above scenarios).

But this entails winning almost every single deadlocked state – running the table. And in some of those, Clinton leads, just in the margin of error.

Give her Colorado, Pennsylvania, and any other deadlocked state in the map above (Nevada, where early returns have boded well for Clinton) or North Carolina, where she led until recently, or another, and Clinton wins. Give him Colorado but her Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and she wins. And so forth. She has many more combinations to get to the presidency.

Here are 9 possible election outcomes using electoral college maps.

Turnout is going to matter. Early voting does too. Forty million Americans have already voted. See a state-by-state breakdown of early voting tallies here. Early voting patterns, when compared to 2012, have been positive for Republicans in some key states, like Florida and North Carolina, and positive for Clinton in others, like Nevada and Colorado.

What’s going on at the battleground state level? Here’s what you need to know as of November 6:


Battleground States in the Margin of Error (3% lead or under)


Florida

Clinton leads Florida by an average of 1%, but that’s down slightly from the day before. Polling out of Florida has consistently shown the race to be deadlocked in this must-win state.

The most recent poll out of Florida, by CBS News, showed the race to literally be a tie. Clinton led 4 and 3, and Trump led by 4 in the most recent polls before that one. The CBS poll found Trump voters had higher enthusiasm than Clinton voters.

Half of voters felt Clinton’s emails were bad and worse than anything they had heard about Trump (the poll took place before the FBI director announced his agency won’t refer charges against Hillary for the newly discovered emails.) Another 15% felt the emails were bad but Trump was worse. Another 35% didn’t think the emails were a big deal. However, 62% didn’t think Trump was prepared to be president. Forty-two percent thought Trump had ties to the Russian government. In many ways, voters viewed both candidates negatively.

Early voting trends in Florida have shown positives for Republicans as they’ve closed the Democratic gap in early voting seen in 2012.


Ohio

Trump leads in Ohio, but, at 2.8%, the lead is in the margin of error for most polls. He’s led in all polls out of Ohio since the first James Comey letter to Congress, though – 1, 5 and 5.

The CBS poll showing him with a 1-point lead is the most recent, though. Clinton has recovered slightly in the polling average the past few days.

The results in this poll were similar to that in Florida, showing both candidates with high negatives, Trump with more enthusiasm, and Clinton’s emails upsetting just under half of voters. Early voting trends in Ohio have looked positive for the GOP.


Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania would be a critically important pick up for Trump. Clinton currently leads an average of 2.4% in the state.

That’s in the margin for error of most polls, and the most recent poll in the state, by Harper, found the race was a tie. Clinton led in the four polls before that one either 2 or 4 percentage points. Trump’s numbers are buoyed by the economic angst seen in western Pennsylvania, a state with only limited early voting.

You can see a detailed analysis of Pennsylvania and the presidential election here:


New Hampshire

Trump leads an average 1.6%, which is a big gain in the past week. However, the race is still in the margin of error for most polls.

The most recent poll, from Gravis, shows Trump up 2. The last four polls showed two ties and a Trump lead of 5 and 1.

New Hampshire remains very close, but recent polling has been good news for Trump. New Hampshire does not have wide open early voting.


North Carolina

Similar to New Hampshire, Trump now leads an average 1.5% in North Carolina, which is considered by most to be a must-win state for him.

That’s in the margin of error for most polls, though. There have been two polls since Comey’s first letter, and he leads by 5 and 7. Democrats have been concerned about African-American turnout in North Carolina, trends reflected in a smaller margin of Democratic early voting when compared to 2012.


Colorado

Clinton leads an average 2.9% in Colorado, which is a state that would help Trump dramatically if he could pick it up.

Of seven recent polls, though, two showed a tie, and the other 5 show Clinton leads of between 1-6 percentage points. Thus, Colorado still looks like Hillary’s to lose, but it’s gotten closer in the past weeks (Clinton led by 8 in mid-October). In recent days, Clinton’s average has stabilized there, though. Early voting trends in Colorado favor Democrats.


Nevada

Trump leads in Nevada by an average 2%, but that’s in the margin of error, and local news analysis of early voting trends has found they are favorable for Clinton.

The three most recent polls showed the race a tie, and Trump leading by 6 and 4. A surge in Latino turnout is keeping this one close in a state where most people early vote, and one local reporter who studies early voting patterns has reported that they will be very tough for Trump to surmount in a state Obama won by a healthy margin.


Iowa

Trump leads Iowa by an average of 3%. Recent polls have looked good for him out of Iowa.

The most recent poll, by the Des Moines Register, showed him leading by 7. Two other recent polls showed him up 3 and 1.

The newspaper said, “Trump leads among several key demographic groups, including men, self-identified independents, young and middle-aged voters and those without a college degree.” Early voting trends out of Iowa have looked promising for Trump.


Trump Leads


Arizona

Trump now has a healthy 4% average lead in Arizona, which has tightened in his favor after Clinton made this traditionally red state competitive due to Hispanic turnout.

Trump has led in all of the most recent Arizona polls, by 5, 5, 4, and 2.


Clinton Leads


Michigan

Donald Trump has been competing aggressively for Michigan, but Clinton still leads there by an average of 4%. Still, that’s down from 7% on November 1.

The most recent polls show Clinton leading by 3, 4, and 5. The margins are getting close to the margin of error, and Trump is hoping that turnout will benefit him. Michigan is not a state that allows everyone to early vote. Republicans say they have seen positive signs in the limited early voting the state allows.


Wisconsin

Clinton leads Wisconsin by a healthy 5.5% in RealClearPolitics polling averages. Trump recently cancelled a rally he was going to give in Wisconsin on November 6 in favor of events in Minnesota, Michigan, and Virginia instead.

Wisconsin tends to vote Democratic in presidential years, although it has a Republican governor. There hasn’t been a lot of polling out of Wisconsin, but the last three polls showed Clinton up 6, 6, and 4. Early voting shows some positive signs for Democrats in Wisconsin.


Virginia

Clinton leads by an average of 5.2 percentage points in Virginia, the home of her running mate Tim Kaine.

She led by 8 on October 30, and the race then tightened in Trump’s favor. However, more recently, her polling average has ticked back up. She led in the 5 most recent polls from 4-7 percentage points.


Maine

Clinton leads Maine by an average of 4.5%, but there’s a catch. Maine gives out some electors to the winners of Congressional districts, and a poll showed the race virtually tied in the Second.

Although the race has tightened in Maine as a whole, Clinton led by 4 and 5 in the recent polling.


New Mexico

Clinton leads in New Mexico by an average 4%. However, the state hasn’t normally been on battleground lists. RealClearPolitics added the state to the battlegrounds as it has been tightening in Trump’s favor.

Clinton leads by 5 and 3 in the most recent polling.


Read more about Donald Trump and Melania in Spanish at AhoraMismo.com:

81 Comments

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81 Comments

Anonymous

Haly klinten should becaus she never talks about people double trump siad that woman are stupid

Anonymous

People, people, people, the thing is, change doesn’t care what we decide. It comes regardless, and you can no more question it than you can gravity. The toothpaste won’t go back into the tube, the gay people back into the closet, the women back into the kitchen nor the African Americans back to the rear of the bus. HRC is our next president, like it or not.

Anonymous

“Haly kiinten . . .” WTF are you even saying? Your sentence is total gibberish!!!

Anon

Clinton called YOU an “ignorant complacent.” It might be the only thing she’s ever been honest about….lol

Anonymous

Trump should be disqualified he has no experience and has hidden his tax returns. At least we know what we re getting with her.

Hilary

Anonymous

She is more than a crook. It’s not her fault. It’s the way she is, but the American Citizens obviously do not care about what happens to their country and that’s why it is their fault for not being more careful who they vote for.

Anonymous

You’re so right, Anonymous. Hillary is so much more. She’s an accomplished lawyer, U.S. Senator, Secretary of State, who has a long history of fighting for children.

Robert

You mean accomplished liar, US $ Solicitor, and Secretary of Red Tape with a long history of aborting children.

Angela Madhoo

I have a piece of advice for those men like you who are against abortions GET A VASECTOMY, USE CONDOMS or PULL OUT, just do everything you can so you will not get a woman pregnant. Here is why; a woman reserves the right to choose if she want any part of you growing inside her. You might be good in bed, but not good enough for you be the father of her child or want to put her body through the trauma a pregnancy with your child.

Anonymous

No, Robert, that’s not what I “mean.” However, hour misogyny explains you very well.. I don’t need some man explaining for me. Why don’t you go home and browbeat your wife or girlfriend? It’s obvious you have a lot of practice doing so. Or better yet, why don’t you join Donnie on one of his pu&%y-grabbing romps?

Anon

Do you mean that she fights for the full term babies who are killed during partial birth abortions…yeah…she has a history. Be a voice for those children! Vote TRUMP 2016

Angela Madhoo

If I were Trump’s mother I would have had an abortion when I got pregnant with him, then I would have saved America from having a bankrupt pedophile and child rapist wanting to be President.

Anonymous

Obviously Anon, you deal in hysteria and not facts. Do you even know the conditions under which a partial-birth abortion is performed, or the actual procedure? I thought so.

BTW, Anon, 99.9% of “pro-life” people are a farce. Call pro-lifers by their rightful name– “pro-birth.” Pro-lifers don’t give a flying F about pregnant mothers with unplanned pregnancies once the baby clears the womb. And where are all these so-called pro-lifers when it comes to lobbying Congress for federal child support laws, so a deadbeat parent who moves out of state can have her/his paycheck garnished? When I see all of you pro-lifers making sure that men who impregnate a woman must regularly contribute to the feeding, clothing and housing these children, you have some moral ground to stand on. But until then, you’re just a cruel, pathetic joke.

Anonymous

If they’re children, why can’t they survive outside the womb? Why doesn’t the government give you an exemption for your fetus on your income taxes if it’s a child? if you don’t like abortion, don’t get one. If you’re a man, you have nothing of value to say on the subject.

Rose

Trump is the real crook! Lock him up! Lock him up! While they’re at it lock his wife too! He’s broken the law many times and yet no one does anything about it! He’s wife has broken the law by working illegally for
ten months as a nudest model and he knew that! He is the crooked one by ripping people off by not paying them! He’s a con artist and has put our nation against each other with his lies, being a racest, his temperment and a Pervert! For someone that claims he has billions and was going to put his own money for his campaigning he sure was asking for donations during his campaigning! What a liar! Trump is a pathological liar that believes his own lies. People that live in glass house’s shouldn’t throw stones! This man is really mentally ill!

Anonymous

Well, truth teller, better than a, parasitic, pays-no-taxes, pu**y-grabbing, know-nothing bigot.

Anonymous

Crook. Well where’s Trump tax returns. Stealing from the federal government is a crime.

Anonymous

You don’t choose to get shot with a 12 gauge just because you know what it is.

Anonymous

You’re right! We know what we are getting with Hillary! LYING CORRUPTION! SCANDAL, MORE LIES, MORE INVESTIGATIONS, GREED, POWER HUNGRY CORRUPTION, and NOTHING GETTING DONE, ONLY BLABBER MOUTH TALK!

VOTE TRUMP/PENCE!

We have not 2 candidates to choose, but TWO FUTURES TO CHOOSE! TRUMP/PENCE to bring back the founding principles and uphold the constitution.

Hillary brings the ENTITLEMENT movement, LGBT entitlement redefining marriage and male and female, and baby murder. You vote for her and you help allow millions more abortions. Where is the babies rights? She talks about guns killing children but is supportive of abortion even at 9 months!

The fact is most people voting for Hillary know she is corrupt and a liar, and they don’t care. It’s the “human ENTITLEMENT movement” of LGBT rights and women’s rights wanting to REDEFINE MARRIAGE, and even male and female! They want to change the USA to meet their lifestyle. THESE LBGT RIGHTS ARE BEING PUT ABOVE OUR RIGHTS so we can not stand for our Christian values in business, and churches etc. This movement wants everything FREE. Free college, free meals, free housing, free healthcare etc. The FREE ENTITLEMENT movement. Anyone voting for corrupt lying Hillary is “USING” her to reach their agenda. You remember these words. If she wins, I guarantee next election there will be many women and gays running for president. First is was the LGBT, then LGBTQ, now LGBTQIA, soon will be the; LGBTQIAXNIJNIUTFTRDRSERSRDYGUBNINKBYDTDTFTJNKNJYFG16.8 The end times is near…

Anonymous

“Baby Murder,” . . . you must be a male. What bothers you more, Anonymous, that a woman will be in power, or that gays can marry? Or that a black man has been President? If you don’t like gay marriage, then don’t marry someone of the same sex–it’s that simple. Change is inevitable, and you can no more stop it, then stop the sun from rising each morning. Too bad you don’t remember the our country’s mandate: E Pluribus Unum–One from many. There are multiple races, cultures, viewpoints, beliefs, and sexual orientations in this country . . . the country’s Founders purposely did not want a national religion, and therefore, the very first Constitutional amendment provides for the separation of church and state . . . furthermore, racism and misogyny are vile and counterproductive to our collective well being . . . and if we really care about this country, we will band together and respect our differences and champion our commonalities . . . to do less, to claim that your belief system and values is the only one with the right to exist, is the very antithesis of America.

BTW, you might want to know that all the Nobel prizes awarded to Americans this year, were all Americans who came here as immigrants.

Robert

Hey Anonymous, Stop watching MSNBC for a moment, you know nothing. I am a die hard republican and I’d vote for a woman or a Black in a heartbeat, just not Obama or Clinton! Of course all the Blacks I’d vote for you would call “Uncle Toms” just because they don’t they are victims like most African Americans have been told for years by the Dems. I also have no trouble letting gays marry and I am not too Keen on Trump, but have to vote for him because of Clinton. If Joe Liberman was running or some other moderate Dem, it would have been the first time I voted Democratic in the 35 years I’ve been allowed to vote.

Guess what? Most republicans don’t mind immigration either, except it must be legal. My wife came here from another country and it took a year to process it, why should the Mexicans be able to jump the wall and get in. Lastly, only democrats can fight to keep a convicted murderer alive, while at the same time cut up a baby whose just weeks from being born.

Anonymous

Hey Robert, don’t own a TV! But you sound sooooo scared. You better turn off Fox News and Rush Limbaugh . . . as far as wives coming here legally, are you referring to Melania’s illegal work while on a Visitor’s visa, and then lying about it afterwards to so she could obtain a work visa? (A felongo by the way.) My father and husband too, are immigrants who came here legally, so I know all about immigration. My question is why do you you only speak of a wall on the Mexican/US border, but none on the Canadian/US . . . don’t look now, but your racism is showing.

You are living in Fantasyland if you think most Republicans don’t mind immigration. Just ask former Speaker of the House, Eric Cantor. Of course, Republicans are bighearted enough to make an exception if they need a nanny, gardener, or a maid–legal or otherwise!

Anonymous

nobel prices are all politically rigged. It is those socialist scandinavians who are currently in the middle of destroying their once beautiful countries. Remeber when they gave the nobel peace prize to Pres. OB when he had virtually accomplished nothing for world peace.

Anonymous

You’re paranoia knows no bounds, Anonymous. is there anything that Trumpanzees disagree with that they don’t say is rigged? Grow up and practice accountability, will ya??

As far Obama having done nothing for world peace, I could dismiss your claim as mere anecdotal evidence. However, harnessing the voters of a country founded on slavery to overcome their racism, gave hope to many all over the world. As the Nobel committee chairman, Thorbjoern Jagland, said at the time “only rarely has a person such as Obama captured the world’s attention and given his people hope for a better future. His diplomacy is founded in the concept that those who are to lead the world must do so on the basis of values and attitudes that are shared by the majority of the world’s population. “

Anonymous

In this day and age being ignorant should not be an excuse. True facts that are not just reported but proven that Trump is a racist, womanizer, bigot, theif, entitled, cheater, coward and a clown to be laughed at in a circus not the White House. Not to mention the fact that he thinks he’s above the law (we have to report our taxes) and as far as knowing about business he’s filed bankruptcy several times and he out sources all jobs for majority of his companies. Know your facts their public knowledge.

Anon

You are correct…and with Clinton and media control….You may never know the truth. But you know what they say, if it’s scandal after scandal, she’s probably a swindler. Vote TRUMP 2016.

Anonymous

Oh please, stop with the Clinton media control–another Trumpanzee delusion. More people watch Fox News in this country than any other network, and its hardly pro-Hillary!!

alt

What prove do you have that Trump is a child rapist? Just bias media that claim’s a 13 y/o said he rape her repeatedly at his parties she attended. Use your brain, what female will continue to go to parties if she knows she will be raped? Really, also this person has no name, claims that she didn’t show up for a news interview because she was scared, but she not scared to attend the parties? BS. You should like a complete idiot and a real POS.

Anon

Trump can’t be disqualified because he is not a criminal like Hilary. What you get with Hilary is four more years or crap. VOTE TRUMP 2016

Byron dade t

You are absolutely correct. We do know what we are getting . We are getting a sociopathic monster with the goal of self promotion and over 40 years of theft and lies as her accomplishment. She is the embodiment of evil and viciousness. If she wins you will see the destruction of world wide civil society as we know it. As her health declines she will take any and all desperate measures to leave a mark.

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