The key state to watch on election night this evening is Florida, a battleground that Donald Trump essentially must win in order to be elected president. Hours before the results are announced, who is leading in the final polls? Who holds the advantage?
It’s still a close race in the state, but Trump has the slight advantage. In Real Clear Politics’ polling average, Trump heads into Election Day leading Hillary Clinton in Florida by 0.4 percentage points. But for comparison, Mitt Romney was ahead of Barack Obama in Florida by an average of 1.5 percentage points headed into the 2012 election, yet Barack Obama ended up winning the state by a margin of 0.86 percentage points.
In the final four Florida polls to be released, Hillary Clinton is ahead in two, Donald Trump is ahead in one, and one other is tied.
FiveThirtyEight currently forecasts that Hillary Clinton has a 55.1 percent chance of winning Florida. These odds are better than Barack Obama’s in 2012, as four years ago, FiveThirtyEight gave the president a 50.3 percent chance of taking Florida.
Here’s a look at the final Florida polls of the 2016 election.
Trafalgar Group: Trump Four Points Ahead
The most recent Florida poll that has been released looks great for the Donald Trump campaign. The poll from Trafalgar Group was conducted on November 6th by speaking to 1100 likely voters. The margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.
In the poll, 2.4 percent of voters said they would vote for Gary Johnson, while 1.1 percent remained undecided.
The majority of Florida voters seemed to see the enthusiasm for Donald Trump more than they’re seeing the enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton. Fifty-five percent of those polled said they think their neighbor is voting for Donald Trump, while 37 percent said their neighbor is probably voting for Hillary Clinton.
The poll also showed Hillary Clinton decisively winning among voters between the ages of 18 to 25, getting 62.60 percent of that demographic. On the other hand, Trump had the biggest lead among voters 36 to 45, getting 60.15 percent of their vote.
Read more about Donald Trump’s odds in the Presidential Election in Spanish at AhoraMismo.com:
Opinion Savvy: Clinton Leads by Two Points
Another recent poll conducted around the same time as the Trafalgar Group survey gives Hillary Clinton the edge over Donald Trump. This poll from Opinion Savvy was conducted on November 5th and November 6th by speaking to 853 likely voters. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points.
Gary Johnson scored three percent of the vote, while 1.1 percent of voters selected Jill Stein and another 1.1 percent said they were undecided.
Also, 71.1 percent of these participants said they had already voted early. Almost everyone else – 27.5 percent – said they’re definitely going to vote on November 8th, while just 1.3 percent said they are only “considering” voting.
Quinnipiac: Clinton Leads by One Point
In Quinnipiac’s final Florida poll, Hillary Clinton has a narrow lead over Donald Trump, ahead of him by just one point. The previous Quinnipiac poll had Clinton ahead by two points. This newest poll was conducted by speaking to 884 likely voters from November 3rd through November 6th. The margin of error is 3.3 percentage points.
Three percent of participants said they were voting for Gary Johnson, while one percent picked Jill Stein. In a head-to-head matchup, though, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were tied at 46 percent to 46 percent.
Interestingly, this poll suggests that Florida Republicans are more united behind their nominee than Florida Democrats. Seven percent of Republicans said they’re not voting for Trump, while 10 percent of Democrats said they’re not voting for Clinton.
Among independent voters, Hillary Clinton is slightly ahead of Donald Trump, 45 percent to 44 percent. Finally, Hillary Clinton won 50 percent of the female vote to Trump’s 42 percent, while Donald Trump won the male vote 48 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent.
CBS News/YouGov: Trump and Clinton Tied
The last poll from CBS News/YouGov finds a tie between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. The poll was conducted by speaking to 1188 likely voters from November 2nd through November 4th. The margin of error is 3.6 percentage points.
Gary Johnson scored four percent of the vote, while two percent picked Jill Stein, two percent picked someone else, and two percent said they weren’t sure.
In this poll, Florida voters were clearly quite enthusiastic about voting for president, feeling that they would truly be making a difference. Of those polled, 90 percent said they feel their candidate really needs their vote as opposed to feeling that the result will be the same whether or not they participate.
Also, of those polled, a plurality said that most of their friends and family are voting for Trump – 40 percent – while 35 percent said they’re mostly voting for Clinton.