Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is headed to Michigan for a rally this afternoon. That decision is a bit puzzling considering that Michigan seems to be pretty firmly in the Hillary Clinton camp, and no Republican has won the state since 1988.
But Donald Trump insists that Michigan is in play. In fact, during a recent rally in Colorado, Trump went as far as to say that Clinton is wasting her time in Michigan because he’s going to win it.
“Michigan was never really in play for a Republican,” Trump said. “But you know what? It’s in play for us. Because all of their cars are being made now in Mexico.”
Is he right? What do the latest polls from the state show? Here are the four most recent polls, all of which were conducted during the past two weeks.
Public Policy Polling: Clinton Five Points Ahead
The latest Michigan poll comes from Public Policy Polling, and in it, Hillary Clinton holds a five point lead. The poll was conducted by speaking to 957 likely voters on November 3rd and November 4th. The margin of error is 3.2 percentage points.
Of those polled, six percent said they planned to vote for Gary Johnson, while one percent said they would vote for Jill Stein. In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton leads Trump 50 percent to 45 percent.
Donald Trump’s unfavorable rating is higher than Hillary Clinton’s in Michigan, although once again we see that both candidates are disliked by the majority of voters. Fifty-eight percent of those polled have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump, while 55 percent have an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton.
Finally, a plurality of voters approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, with 48 percent approving and 45 percent disapproving. And when asked if they would rather Barack Obama or Donald Trump be president, 52 percent of voters picked Obama compared to 42 percent who picked Trump.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell: Clinton Three Points Ahead
Clinton also leads Trump by three points in the latest poll from Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell, although she performs much better against him in a head-to-head matchup. The poll was conducted by speaking to 1150 likely voters on November 2nd. The margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.
Four percent of those polled said they would vote for Gary Johnson, while another three percent picked Jill Stein and two percent said they remain undecided. In a head-to-head matchup, Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump by five points, 51 percent to 46 percent.
In this poll, Donald Trump’s unfavorable rating is once again higher than Hillary Clinton’s. Forty-nine percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton, while 56 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump. However, one aspect of the poll that looks good for Trump is the fact that a plurality of voters, 37 percent, said they are “much more likely” to vote for him after leaning about the recently-announced increase in Obamacare premiums.
The other three most recent polls from Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell show Clinton with a five point lead, a six point lead, and a nine point lead respectively.
Detroit Free Press: Clinton Four Points Ahead
The latest poll from The Detroit Free Press gives Hillary Clinton a four point lead over Donald Trump. The poll was conducted by speaking to 600 likely voters from November 1st to November 3rd. The margin of error is 4.0 percentage points.
Thirteen percent of those polled remained undecided, while five percent said they would vote for Gary Johnson and two percent said they’d vote for Jill Stein.
This poll did show, however, that Trump has started to catch up to Hillary Clinton in Detroit. Clinton still leads there 48 percent to 35 percent, but just two weeks ago, that lead was 50 percent to 26 percent.
Trump leads among men in this poll 40 percent to 36 percent, while Hillary Clinton leads among women, 47 percent to 36 percent.
Emerson: Clinton Seven Points Ahead
Finally, a poll from Emerson gives Hillary Clinton a very substantial lead of seven points. The poll was conducted by speaking to 500 likely voters on October 25th and October 26th. The margin of error is 4.3 percentage points.
Six percent of those polled said they would vote for Gary Johnson, while three percent said they were still not sure for whom they would vote. This was a bigger lead for Clinton than she had in an Emerson poll conducted 10 days prior, when she lead Trump 45 percent to 41 percent.