Broward County, Florida voter turnout now more than 2012 with 3+ hours of voting left
Turnout in Florida appears to be shattering 2012 numbers in Democratic strongholds, with several hours to go before the polls close, according to a veteran pollster and reporter who have been crunching the data.
Keep this in mind when assessing Florida turnout data:
Broward is a very important vote generator for Democrats – they need big margins in Palm Beach, Broward & Dade
Dupree is a reporter for Cox Radio, covering Congress, DC and the elections for WSB Atlanta, WDBO Orlando, WOKV Jacksonville, WHIO Dayton & KRMG Tulsa. On Twitter, he said he is also finding higher turnout in some GOP areas than 2012 too.
Turnout in Martin County, Florida already above 2012; it went for Romney 61-38%
But he – and the pollster, Tom Bonier – are finding a lot of good news for Democrats.
The key will be not only whether there is high turnout in Democratic bastions at a pace higher than Barack Obama’s tallies in 2012 but also whether turnout is also escalating in Republican areas of the state, and to what degree. Thus, there should be some caution in interpreting partial results.
Remember that Barack Obama won Florida by the slimmest of margins: 0.9%. Everyone remembers Bush vs. Gore: Florida has been a nail biter for years now.
It’s a must-win state for Donald Trump. Florida matters to Hillary Clinton too, but she has more plausible pathways to the presidency even without Florida than Trump has; Trump would have to flip some traditionally blue states to recover from losing Florida, with its 29 electoral votes. Read about the 5 states to watch most closely tonight; top of the list is Florida:
Battleground polling has shown Florida is basically deadlocked.
Tom Bonier, CEO of the polling firm, TargetSmart, is one of those crunching the Florida turnout data. As of 4 p.m. on Election Day Eastern Standard Time, here’s what he’s found:
Here’s a chart with all of the counties I’ve looked at so far:
Uh, wow. Obama won Orange County, FL by 18%. They are reporting 45k MORE ballots cast than all of ’12, with over 3 hours of voting left.
Broward County. 67% Obama ’12. As of 2:30 PM, total turnout exceeds final ’12 total vote by over 4,700 votes.
Okay, wow – I’ve found 9 counties in Florida that are reporting turnout data in real time (or every 10 mins). Analysis to follow…
For context, Obama won Broward by 34% in ’12.
Extending out to poll close, this would mean Broward would see 133k more votes cast than ’12. Of course, turnout will fluctuate.
377 votes cast per minute in Broward Cnty FL today. If that holds, they will surpass their 2012 turnout at 1:06 PM. t.co/Hx8myBYGLm
Others were also crunching early Florida turnout data.
Turnout in Okaloosa County, Florida with a GOP edge, but like Leon, turnout not yet at 2012
Leon County, Florida (Tallahassee) showing Dem edge, but overall turnout lower than 2012
Obama only won 13 of 67 counties in Florida in 2012; he won Palm Beach by 102k, Broward by 264k & Dade by 208k
Clay County, Florida, which went big for Romney, is also above 2012 turnout
Hillsborough County, Florida also over 2012 turnout already – turnout map
Bonier’s polling firm, TargetSmart, conducted a detailed analysis of early voting data, and found that Clinton was leading by 9% overall in early voting tallies.
VoteCastr is a pioneering election project that attempts to predict real-time turnout. It is currently predicting, as of 4 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, that Clinton’s turnout in Florida has surpassed Barack Obama’s in 2012, and that Trump’s turnout is under Mitt Romney’s pacing. One caveat: The site is predicting the same finding in all of the states it’s projecting.
The New York Times says that Hispanic turnout surged in Florida in early voting by 3 percent, making up 15% of the early vote in 2016 and 12% of the electorate in 2012. This could end up critical.
According to The Huffington Post, overall, of early voting tallies before election day: “Slightly more registered Democrats than Republicans have voted in Florida thus far, but Democrats’ advantage is lower than it was at this point in 2012 ― and historically, more Republicans vote on Election Day in Florida.”
However, Florida’s early voting tallies showed surges in Democratic strongholds, the site said. Furthermore, the election will also depend on how independents broke, and The Huffington Post said a bigger portion of Florida independents is now non-white.