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2016 Election Prediction: Moody’s Calls Race For Clinton — Analyst Boasts 100 Percent Accuracy

Nate Silver, the noted polling analyst and statistician, said Monday that on a scale of one to 10, Democrats should panic about the possible results of the presidential election at a level of “five or six.” That would be a high degree of panic — but according to Moody’ Analytics, a financial firm whose presidential prediction model has never missed the mark, Democrats should not panic at all.

Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election, defeating Republican Donald Trump easily, by a comfortable if not landslide margin, Moody’s predicts.

Moody’s is a key player in the United States economy, providing credit ratings that can shape the value of stocks, bonds and other financial instruments. But the wide-ranging research firm also, every four years since 1980, issues a prediction in the presidential election.

The Moody’s prediction is based not on polls, but on economic and historical factors at the national and state levels.

Based this year largely on low gas prices nationwide and healthy favorability ratings for outgoing president Barack Obama, Moody’s issued its prediction on Tuesday — calling a Clinton victory with 322 electoral votes. That’s 52 more than the 270 required to take the presidency.

That leaves Trump with only 206 electoral votes, out the 538 total votes available from the 50 states combined.

The confident Moody’s prediction contrasts with many national polls which have shown the Trump vs. Clinton race growing closer in the final week before the November 8 balloting.

What Moody’s does not factor in are the personal characteristics of specific candidates. The policies or personalities of Trump and Clinton played no role in the Moody’s prediction. Neither did such news events as the series of sexual harassment claims against Trump, or the FBI’s investigation into Clinton’s emails.

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And even a top Moody’s statistician cautions that though the firm’s model has been correct in calling the winner of nine consecutive presidential elections, that doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to hit a bullseye this time.

“Given the unusual nature of the 2016 election cycle to date, it is very possible that voters will react to changing economic and political conditions differently than they have in past election cycles, placing some risk in the model outcome, particularly state-by-state projections,” analyst Dan White, who authored the Moody’s report, wrote.

But White also noted that historically, low gas prices combined with a popular president — Obama’s average rating stands at nearly 54 percent positive and trending upward, according to Pollster.com — favors the candidate of the incumbent party, in this case, the Democrats.

“Historically, no incumbent president since Ronald Reagan in 1988 has had a surge anywhere close to [Obama’s] magnitude in their eighth year in office,” White wrote.

At the same time, “Even those who don’t have a car typically pass a gas station and see prices dropping or falling of a daily basis,” the analysts added.

In addition to prices at the gas pump, the Moody’ prediction also factors in two-year household income growth, which has climbed by about two percent, and average values of homes. The value of the average American house has also risen in the past two years.

Politically, in addition to presidential approval ratings, Moody’s also factors in “political fatigue” — meaning the tendency of individual states to switch party preferences from election to election — and the degree to which each state leans toward one party or the other in previous elections.

Under the Moody’s Analytics prediction, the crucial “swing” states of Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Pennsylvania will all fall into the Democratic column on November 8, paving the way for a comfortable Clinton victory over Trump.

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38 comments

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  1. Yes for Clinton …she can perform with a heart for her country and the world…God will be with her….. No one is perfect in this world…. we do have our own individual differences ….forgiveness is the key to a peaceful country not hatred

  2. just FYI he is on the Clinton payroll!!! He is part of what will make this country fall…tell the devil hi when you get back to where you came from!

    • You are confused trump is a billionaire and he got there by conning people what do you think he would do to you. . Trust me he gives 2 shits about your broke ass.

      • Hillary is far wealthier Han Trump, not only monotarily but also in political power! She has committed he ultimate of crimes- crimes which would land any of us in jail for life… but not her. Hillary’s donors to her campaign and foundation are made up of Wall Street bankers and the 1 percent- not to mention countries like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar – countries where women can’t even drive and little girls have to marry and FuK old men under Sharia Law. Oh and those countries murder homosexuals for fun. Tell me who the Heck You are Placing on a pedestal…. Hillary is no leader. She’s a woman raping devil who has the blood of raped girls on her hands. 😡

        • So in other words you agree that Trump has lied about being a billionaire. Makes sense since he’s lied about everything else. Incidentally, Trump sold the 45th floor of Trump World Tower to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for $4.5 million in June 2001, according to a city Finance Department spokeswoman. In 2008, the apartments became part of the Saudi Mission to the United Nations, records show. I guess that makes Trump a rapist. Wait a minute – he’s already told us he is one. So I guess the Donald does tell the truth sometimes.

  3. Share this article
    If Donald Trump is making a charge against someone, you can bet that Trump has done the same thing, only worse. Part of it is projection—as an incurable narcissist, Trump can’t stop seeing his own reflection on everyone else—but a bigger part is simply this: There are few bad things that Donald Trump hasn’t already done. Bigly.

    … Donald Trump’s companies have systematically destroyed or hidden thousands of emails, digital records and paper documents demanded in official proceedings, often in defiance of court orders. These tactics—exposed by a Newsweek review of thousands of pages of court filings, judicial orders and affidavits from an array of court cases—have enraged judges, prosecutors, opposing lawyers and the many ordinary citizens entangled in litigation with Trump.

    When Trump daily attacks Clinton over the emails, he’s charging her with doing what Trump himself has done over, and over, and over. The “30,000 missing emails” that Trump goes on about so often were personal emails. That designation wasn’t made by Clinton, it was made by a team of lawyers that scoured her server to determine which emails were related to her work, and which had nothing to do with it—the exact same task the FBI is now conducting on the computer that was the subject of Comey’s ill-timed, self-serving letter.

    Meanwhile, actually destroying emails associated with a case? That’s a Trump specialty.

    When a government attorney finally telephoned a Trump lawyer to find out why, he was told the Trumps had not even begun preparing their answers and had no plans to do so. The Trumps also postponed and blocked depositions, refused to provide a description of their records, as required, and would not turn over any documents.

    What did Trump do instead of turning over documents? He lied. He sued. He was Trump.

    Only days remain. Click here to make phone calls from home with MoveOn to defeat Donald Trump and the Republican Senate majority.

    In the very first major issue where he was involved, a federal suit over discrimination at Trump properties, Donald Trump stalled for months. Finally, he was dragged into court.

    … under subpoena, Trump appeared for a short deposition. When asked about the missing documents, he made a shocking admission: The Trumps had been destroying their corporate records for the previous six months and had no document-retention program. They had conducted no inspections to determine which files might have been sought in the discovery requests or might otherwise be related to the case. Instead, in order to “save space,” Trump testified, officials with his company had been tossing documents into the shredder and garbage.

    Why would Donald Trump suspect that Hillary Clinton’s deleted emails contained important information? Because Trump knows that when he had the chance, he destroyed incriminating evidence. He did it not once or twice, but as a matter of routine.

    And a man who has been involved in 3,500 lawsuits gets the routine down pat.

    Trump didn’t just claim to have no emails. In one case, he repeatedly denied even having a server.

    That was false …

    Finally, during a deposition nine months after he had signed the deceptive affidavit, the same Trump executive admitted his assertions in it were untrue. In fact, an IBM Domino server for emails and other files had been installed in 1999, the same year witnesses for Power Plant contended that Trump had learned of the casino deal. Prior to that, as early as 1997, the Trump corporations used servers off-site …

    What happened with Trump’s servers? Destroyed. The emails? Destroyed. And all of it while in the middle of a legal action where the emails had been subpoenaed.

    The deletions continued, and backup tapes were reused—thus erasing the data they held. Power Plant lawyers also discovered that after the lawsuit was filed, Trump Hotels disposed of a key witness’s computer without preserving the data on it.

    Donald Trump knows about destroying evidence. It’s Trump’s reaction to everything. Because Donald Trump knows that when evidence of his actions becomes public, it’s always an issue.

    Just look at the Billy Bush tape.

  4. 1000% for Hillary. . She has done so many things for this country .. trump has done nothing nothing and would not lift a finger for anyone who votes for him.. remember that.

    • Hillary is running because there is no real democracy and justice system. If so, she should have been ended up in prison for what she has done.

        • You so write ! She has committed no crime what’s ever !!beside she’ been for the country thirty years , and she’s intellectually ! & I can’t wait any more to see the first President women in U.S. A ! Good luck Hillary ingnor all the peolple that fabricated story !! I’ll trust The clintons !!! Amen 🍀👍👍👍

      • did you even watch comey after the initial investigation? he listed many crimes that she’s committed. he then, surprisingly and unexpectedly said he can not recommend prosecution. explain that? the only explanation I can come up with is he felt compelled to tell the truth, but could not recommend prosecution because if he did, he’d end up in a body bag.

        • She didn’t commit any crimes that’s why he didn’t recommend her prosecution. If you actually read the report you’d know that.

    • Yes Clinton has done a lot. To name a few, help to make my insurance go up 60percent in 8 years. Trying to take our guns away from us so the criminals can do their crimes easier. Help Satan destroy our morals and the God fearing country we use to be. Trying to make killing a 9 month old baby in the womb just because the mother has a few complications or she just can’t afford the child. God have mercy on all the Clinton supporters because you vote for her you vote for the murdering of babies when there are so many woman that would love to be a mom and can’t. Democrats are so deceiving the nation and people are too stupid to see they do nothing for our blacks, etc. Trump has faults and can be an ass but he loves this country and will protect our rights. When satanic worshing J zz and Beyonce show up to help Clinton what does that tell you. She is part of the Lumunati group. If you don’t see that you are blind. Turn your back to the Lord and he will turn his back on you. You can bash this. I don’t care. You will have to answer to The Lord, not me for voting for abortion, same sex marriage, men using women’s bathrooms. You’ll are sick to say the least.

      • Did you know Trump supports “same sex marriage, men using women’s bathrooms.”? So I guess he’s sick too. What do you think the Lord will say to you about voting for a man who thinks its ok to “grab em by the pussy”?

  5. I will pray trump wins Hilary is every mob boss cult leader dictator rolled into a pantsuit and will put america up for sale and roll out the red carpet for death and destruction

    • Trump has ties to the mob, the KKK, brietbart with conspiracy theories besides all the cheating and racism. He’s telling you he can do better than the generals and can fix everything himself which is ubsurd. He has everything made outside the USA. He has no idea what he’s talking about and will put the country into a terrible recession. Even his own party can’t stand him. Don’t be fooled by all his non promises. Who will pay for the wall if it’s approved by congress to spend all that money? The taxpayers will pay because he’s already said that we will build the wall and send Mexico the bill. That’s a big change since he first started with his big beautiful wall because Mexico has said they will not pay for it. He’s in it for the very wealthiest of people. Don’t think for a second that he’ll do a thing for anyone else. He will help himself. Anyone who believes him is a fool! He lies every three minutes. You can fact check that! VOTE BLUE DOWN BALLOT!

  6. For the country’s sake, I hope that this prediction is wrong… This country cannot handle another 4 yrs of Democratic rule…

    • We’ve had 16 years steady economic and job growth under the Clinton and Obama Administrations. And under the previous 2 Republican Administartions – Recession under George H.W. Bush – depression under George W. Bush.But GWB cut the taxes of the top 1 pct. so I guess it was all worth it.

  7. Who is this guy Anonymous and why are you going back and forth with him. You would learn nothing. DJT is God in his eyes. Just ignore him. It’ worthless trying to reason with some of his supporters.