Nevada Early Voting Update: Clinton Almost Certain to Win

TEMPE, AZ - NOVEMBER 02: Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton greets supporters during a campaign rally at Arizona State University on November 2, 2016 in Tempe, Arizona. The U.S. presidential general election is November 8. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Hillary Clinton greets supporters during a campaign rally at Arizona State University on November 2 in Tempe, Arizona. (Getty)

Nevada’s early voting results suggest that Hillary Clinton will easily win the state despite narrowing polls.

Although Nevada went for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, it has been turning more and more blue over the past decade, with Barack Obama defeating Mitt Romney there by six percentage points in 2012. And the state now has 586,000 registered Democrats compared to 494,000 registered Republicans, a lead of 92,000 voters, according to statistics from the Nevada Secretary of State.

The Donald Trump campaign has hoped to challenge Hillary Clinton in Nevada, and recent polls have shown him catching up to her. In Real Clear Politics‘ Nevada polling average, Trump currently leads Clinton by 2.0 percentage points. The Trump campaign has made several visits to Nevada over the past few weeks, and one of his final rallies of the campaign will be held in Reno. And a map recently sent out by the Trump campaign in a fundraising email has Nevada listed as leaning Republican. Clearly, his team sees this state as essential.

Yet the early voting numbers we have seen show that it will be very, very difficult for Donald Trump to win in Nevada, a state without which his path to 270 Electoral Votes becomes slimmer than ever.

According to the Nevada Secretary of State’s official report, as of November 3rd, about 622,000 people have voted early in Nevada. The state currently estimates its active voter population to be 1.2 million, so this would mean that over half of Nevada’s active voters have participated in the 2016 election already. Thus far, Democrats maintain a lead of about 33,000 votes, which translates into a statewide lead of 42 percent Democrat to 37 percent Republican.

To put this in perspective, this Democratic lead is down just a bit from 2012, but not enough to be all that significant. At this point in early voting in 2012, the Democrats were ahead of the Republicans 45 percent to 37 percent.

Clinton is doing particularly doing well in Clark County, where over 60 percent of Nevada’s active voters live. In this county, she is leading Trump by about 14 percentage points.

As FiveThirtyEight observes, Nevada is a state where the early voting numbers are more predictive of the final result than in other states because here, the majority of votes are cast prior to Election Day. In 2012, 69 percent of the total votes came before Election Day. This suggests that if Clinton wins in Nevada’s early voting, she will likely win the state, and she’ll win it by about the same margin by which she is ahead in early voting. There is just one day left to vote early in Nevada, so it would be surprising to see the numbers shift dramatically from where they are now.

Of course, we don’t actually know which candidate these early voters are choosing; we just know what political party they are registered to. But polls have shown that the overwhelming majority of Democrats will vote for Clinton, and the overwhelming majority of Republicans will vote for Trump. A recent CNN/ORC poll found that 93 percent of Nevada Democrats plan to vote for Hillary Clinton, and 96 percent of Nevada Republicans plan to vote for Donald Trump.

In his analysis of the state’s early voting data, reporter Jon Ralston concludes that as of Thursday night, there is now almost no way Clinton can lose Nevada.

“If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don’t dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can’t lose Nevada,” he wrote on Thursday night.

This is great news for the Hillary Clinton campaign not because she needs to win Nevada, but because Donald Trump needs to win it. His pathway to victory is so narrow that losing just a single swing stage will be a crushing blow. In FiveThirtyEight’s model of the election, Donald Trump currently has a 33.5 percent chance of winning the election. But if he loses Nevada, as these early voting totals suggest he will, his chances of becoming president shrink to nine percent.

68 Comments

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68 Comments

Curt

The author is can’t contain his bias. A lot of people that are dems are voting for Trump and also in same cnn poll trump is winning a whopping 54 to 27 percent of independents. So if he wins some dems and that many independents, plus 96 of gop he will win Nevada… I think you got ahead of yourself here dude with your glee of Trump possibly losing this state.

Anonymous

Early voting shows trump getting crushed. Dems aren’t voting for Comrade Trump and his make Russia great again scheme. Unless, of course, the kkk turns out in huge numbers. You one of those?

Anonymous

Curt, Donnie;s not going to win 96% of Republicans in ANY state. Put down the hookah, and step away from the crack pipe!

Tee Pee

I’m shocked that she’s leading. I can’t stand either Trump or Hillary. I just spent 5 days traveling from SF throughout the state of Nevada and Trump is definitely king. Signs galore and Trump lovers vocal throughout the state. I’m voting Jill Stein, however, Hillary group has this rigged anyway! My family lives all over NH and word has it that Trump and Stein are favored there, so if Hillary wins NH or NV, I believe wholeheartedly it’s rigged.

cnpt1995alumini

Hillary will not win, but Americans are going to make her win, Americans are so naive and innocent (call it stupid) to understand that Hillary is all about “business” they will vote her on face value just like they reject Trump on his face value, Americans will eat the pie after election. Clintons will have a “free ride” you folks are handing the country in a plate to her. She is going to sell you. Enjoy

Brad Oldenburg

Interesting comment as the only destruction of signs that I have seen in the news has come from “animals” (your words) who support Clinton.

Anonymous

Trump’s people have been caught stealing and recycling their own signs due to the lack of funds. I support HRC but will not put up a yard sign or sticker on my car because of Trump supporters here in Texas

Anonymous

Perhaps you prefer voter intimidation via open carry gun laws by Trump supporters in front of absentee polling places?

Mike

That’s bs the Dens have been ripping signs down and creating violence not the Republicans

cnpt1995alumini

Hillary will not win, but Americans are going to make her win, Americans are so naive and innocent (call it stupid) to understand that Hillary is all about “business” they will vote her on face value just like they reject Trump on his face value, Americans will eat the pie after election. Clintons will have a “free ride” you folks are handing the country in a plate to her. She is going to sell you. Enjoy

Anonymous

Your family “lives all over”. So you’re implying you know how all the people in New Hampshire have voted? You’re a total kook, just like all the trump supporters!

Anonymous

I agree !!!! Once she is alleged corrupted criminal there is no way ,she can stop doing it all the sudden . she used her play book by any means to climb the Trump tower and win the election. Audios Democracy #@&#*

Anonymous

Anonymous, it’s “adios” NOT “audios.” Audios refer so sound; adios is Spanish for good-bye. Geesh, guess it’s true about Trump supporters’ lack of higher education.

cnpt1995alumini

Does lack of education makes me unlikeable by you? Is that not discrimination? Are you not a bigot? Can I say all Trump haters are bigots?

Anonymous

cnpt, as you can see by Anonymous statement “Guess” it’s true what they say about Trump supporters’ lack of higher education . . .” s/he never said she didn’t like Trump supports . . . s/he probably thinks the lack of critical thinking skills is preventing “Audios” from being rational. But it doesn’t mean s/he dislikes “Audios,”; it’s just that Audios’ education is lacking. Saying someone is poorly educated doesn’t mean one doesn’t like them. I, myself, work with at-risk populations who have not been blessed with access to education like myself , and I admire, and have profound respect for their courage.. But it doesn’t change the fact that my education and access to opportunity gives me advantages that they do not presently have. I do not think that someone that is better educated than me is automatically discriminating against me, or hates me. I just recognize that they are better educated than me, and therefore, I may not be able to discuss things on their level.
.

Anonymous

Actually, she will have preserved democracy from autocratic oligarchs such as Donnie Boy!

Anonymous

If she is only :alleged, then she might not have to stop “doing it all the sudden.” Maybe you need to look up “alleged” in the dictionary.

Anonymous

Stein is favored in NH? LOL. Favored to get 1-2% of the NH vote.

Anonymous

In my neighborhood (and the surrounding neighborhoods, here in Orange County, CA, which is generally a Republican-voting area), there are no signs up for either candidate. To me, that says that no one, on either side, is happy about voting for either candidate. Sad, sorry state of affairs. This talk that Hillary and Dem’s have “rigged this anyway” is total B.S., but not surprising, since Dirtbag Donald is the one who first came up with that ridiculous claim. Not surprising that his followers are mimicking his ridiculous, stupid statements. If Nevada goes Clinton’s way, I’m going to thank Nevada’s citizens by holding all of my national business meetings in Vegas over the next four years.

Anonymous

Wow, I didn’t know that 2-year olds were allowed on such sites. Your comment so devastated and intimidated all of us non-Trumpettes-NOT!! LMAO!!!

John D.

Yes, Hillary has this rigged. She looks like she’s going to win Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan and she may win Florida and North Carolina. All these states have Republican governors that run the elections in their states. The election is rigged for Hillary is one of the dumbest claims made by Trump.

Anonymous

And exactly how did HRC rig all this, given all elections are monitored on a local presence, with one Republican and one Democrat present at polling places? Sure wish one of your Trumpers would put your brain in gear before you open your mouth!

cnpt1995alumini

Stupid American, the system is rigged the election the least rigged. Hillary will not win, but Americans are going to make her win, Americans are so naive and innocent (call it stupid) to understand that Hillary is all about “business” they will vote her on face value just like they reject Trump on his face value, Americans will eat the pie after election. Clintons will have a “free ride” you folks are handing the country in a plate to her. She is going to sell you. Enjoy

Gordon

Lawn signs, word-of-mouth from family, these sorts of things are poor evidence. There’s no evidence of the election being ‘rigged’. How would / could any given candidate ‘rig’ it? And you don’t think the FBI would have something to say about that?

Jojo

I’m afraid of Trump’s troglodyte’ supporter. That’s why I’m not advertising for Hillary

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