Nevada Early Voting Update: Clinton Almost Certain to Win

TEMPE, AZ - NOVEMBER 02: Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton greets supporters during a campaign rally at Arizona State University on November 2, 2016 in Tempe, Arizona. The U.S. presidential general election is November 8. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Hillary Clinton greets supporters during a campaign rally at Arizona State University on November 2 in Tempe, Arizona. (Getty)

Nevada’s early voting results suggest that Hillary Clinton will easily win the state despite narrowing polls.

Although Nevada went for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, it has been turning more and more blue over the past decade, with Barack Obama defeating Mitt Romney there by six percentage points in 2012. And the state now has 586,000 registered Democrats compared to 494,000 registered Republicans, a lead of 92,000 voters, according to statistics from the Nevada Secretary of State.

The Donald Trump campaign has hoped to challenge Hillary Clinton in Nevada, and recent polls have shown him catching up to her. In Real Clear Politics‘ Nevada polling average, Trump currently leads Clinton by 2.0 percentage points. The Trump campaign has made several visits to Nevada over the past few weeks, and one of his final rallies of the campaign will be held in Reno. And a map recently sent out by the Trump campaign in a fundraising email has Nevada listed as leaning Republican. Clearly, his team sees this state as essential.

Yet the early voting numbers we have seen show that it will be very, very difficult for Donald Trump to win in Nevada, a state without which his path to 270 Electoral Votes becomes slimmer than ever.

According to the Nevada Secretary of State’s official report, as of November 3rd, about 622,000 people have voted early in Nevada. The state currently estimates its active voter population to be 1.2 million, so this would mean that over half of Nevada’s active voters have participated in the 2016 election already. Thus far, Democrats maintain a lead of about 33,000 votes, which translates into a statewide lead of 42 percent Democrat to 37 percent Republican.

To put this in perspective, this Democratic lead is down just a bit from 2012, but not enough to be all that significant. At this point in early voting in 2012, the Democrats were ahead of the Republicans 45 percent to 37 percent.

Clinton is doing particularly doing well in Clark County, where over 60 percent of Nevada’s active voters live. In this county, she is leading Trump by about 14 percentage points.

As FiveThirtyEight observes, Nevada is a state where the early voting numbers are more predictive of the final result than in other states because here, the majority of votes are cast prior to Election Day. In 2012, 69 percent of the total votes came before Election Day. This suggests that if Clinton wins in Nevada’s early voting, she will likely win the state, and she’ll win it by about the same margin by which she is ahead in early voting. There is just one day left to vote early in Nevada, so it would be surprising to see the numbers shift dramatically from where they are now.

Of course, we don’t actually know which candidate these early voters are choosing; we just know what political party they are registered to. But polls have shown that the overwhelming majority of Democrats will vote for Clinton, and the overwhelming majority of Republicans will vote for Trump. A recent CNN/ORC poll found that 93 percent of Nevada Democrats plan to vote for Hillary Clinton, and 96 percent of Nevada Republicans plan to vote for Donald Trump.

In his analysis of the state’s early voting data, reporter Jon Ralston concludes that as of Thursday night, there is now almost no way Clinton can lose Nevada.

“If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don’t dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can’t lose Nevada,” he wrote on Thursday night.

This is great news for the Hillary Clinton campaign not because she needs to win Nevada, but because Donald Trump needs to win it. His pathway to victory is so narrow that losing just a single swing stage will be a crushing blow. In FiveThirtyEight’s model of the election, Donald Trump currently has a 33.5 percent chance of winning the election. But if he loses Nevada, as these early voting totals suggest he will, his chances of becoming president shrink to nine percent.

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  1. I’m shocked that she’s leading. I can’t stand either Trump or Hillary. I just spent 5 days traveling from SF throughout the state of Nevada and Trump is definitely king. Signs galore and Trump lovers vocal throughout the state. I’m voting Jill Stein, however, Hillary group has this rigged anyway! My family lives all over NH and word has it that Trump and Stein are favored there, so if Hillary wins NH or NV, I believe wholeheartedly it’s rigged.

        • Hillary will not win, but Americans are going to make her win, Americans are so naive and innocent (call it stupid) to understand that Hillary is all about “business” they will vote her on face value just like they reject Trump on his face value, Americans will eat the pie after election. Clintons will have a “free ride” you folks are handing the country in a plate to her. She is going to sell you. Enjoy

    • Your family “lives all over”. So you’re implying you know how all the people in New Hampshire have voted? You’re a total kook, just like all the trump supporters!

    • I agree !!!! Once she is alleged corrupted criminal there is no way ,she can stop doing it all the sudden . she used her play book by any means to climb the Trump tower and win the election. Audios Democracy #@&#*

      • Anonymous, it’s “adios” NOT “audios.” Audios refer so sound; adios is Spanish for good-bye. Geesh, guess it’s true about Trump supporters’ lack of higher education.

          • cnpt, as you can see by Anonymous statement “Guess” it’s true what they say about Trump supporters’ lack of higher education . . .” s/he never said she didn’t like Trump supports . . . s/he probably thinks the lack of critical thinking skills is preventing “Audios” from being rational. But it doesn’t mean s/he dislikes “Audios,”; it’s just that Audios’ education is lacking. Saying someone is poorly educated doesn’t mean one doesn’t like them. I, myself, work with at-risk populations who have not been blessed with access to education like myself , and I admire, and have profound respect for their courage.. But it doesn’t change the fact that my education and access to opportunity gives me advantages that they do not presently have. I do not think that someone that is better educated than me is automatically discriminating against me, or hates me. I just recognize that they are better educated than me, and therefore, I may not be able to discuss things on their level.

      • If she is only :alleged, then she might not have to stop “doing it all the sudden.” Maybe you need to look up “alleged” in the dictionary.

    • In my neighborhood (and the surrounding neighborhoods, here in Orange County, CA, which is generally a Republican-voting area), there are no signs up for either candidate. To me, that says that no one, on either side, is happy about voting for either candidate. Sad, sorry state of affairs. This talk that Hillary and Dem’s have “rigged this anyway” is total B.S., but not surprising, since Dirtbag Donald is the one who first came up with that ridiculous claim. Not surprising that his followers are mimicking his ridiculous, stupid statements. If Nevada goes Clinton’s way, I’m going to thank Nevada’s citizens by holding all of my national business meetings in Vegas over the next four years.

      • Wow, I didn’t know that 2-year olds were allowed on such sites. Your comment so devastated and intimidated all of us non-Trumpettes-NOT!! LMAO!!!

    • Yes, Hillary has this rigged. She looks like she’s going to win Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan and she may win Florida and North Carolina. All these states have Republican governors that run the elections in their states. The election is rigged for Hillary is one of the dumbest claims made by Trump.

      • And exactly how did HRC rig all this, given all elections are monitored on a local presence, with one Republican and one Democrat present at polling places? Sure wish one of your Trumpers would put your brain in gear before you open your mouth!

        • Stupid American, the system is rigged the election the least rigged. Hillary will not win, but Americans are going to make her win, Americans are so naive and innocent (call it stupid) to understand that Hillary is all about “business” they will vote her on face value just like they reject Trump on his face value, Americans will eat the pie after election. Clintons will have a “free ride” you folks are handing the country in a plate to her. She is going to sell you. Enjoy

    • Lawn signs, word-of-mouth from family, these sorts of things are poor evidence. There’s no evidence of the election being ‘rigged’. How would / could any given candidate ‘rig’ it? And you don’t think the FBI would have something to say about that?

  2. The author is can’t contain his bias. A lot of people that are dems are voting for Trump and also in same cnn poll trump is winning a whopping 54 to 27 percent of independents. So if he wins some dems and that many independents, plus 96 of gop he will win Nevada… I think you got ahead of yourself here dude with your glee of Trump possibly losing this state.

    • Clinton will win Michigan, Pennsylvania , Wisconsin and Florida. Game Over Trump is the worst candidate in history. Democrats take the senate and kick out the obstructionist . All FBI workers are voting Clinton in N C and Georgia.

      • I think you are one of those guys who is watching CNN . according to CNN now they are taking about Hillary inauguration day while we the rest of us worried about her new 600k emails leaked that is possibly very potential to damage this nation. Now our enemies, wherever they are , undrrstood about Hillary personal information, way of thinking ,private life, judgments , behavior, hobbies and activities. she is already exposed . I don’t think good to elect a person has already evaluated its strong and weakness side by America enemies.

        • Well, if you are a Republican and one of 61 million who voted for Romney, did you read what Romney SAID about Trump? Romney’s full speech is on the Internet. Romney called Trump, among other things, a phony, a con-man, a liar and totally unfit to be President. And, that was before Trump boasted about forcing himself on women. Dirtbag Donald is a detestable character (he has none), he’s duped his supporters.

        • And what do you watch–Fox News, where its CEO just got canned for being a sexual pervert and cost the company tens of millions of dollars/ Or is it Rush Limbaugh and Breitbart? BTW, why is Fox News called Fox “News” anyway? It has no news broadcasts, just pundits offering opinion.

    • My friend even white America will not vote a “pig in a poke” (Trump)
      Very possible Clinton gets north of 400 ECV.

      • What are you blabbing about ? this not about race . the election is all about taking back your country and restore security and greatness or letting the country for possible worst scenario, like ISS who still recruit and claim responsibility to attack inside America. you better look what happened in France.

        • You can spot Trump voters , the ones with the white hood. America is the greatest country in the world with the greatest military that is a reflection of the greatness of the American population.. trump is lying trash.

        • Maybe for some citizens “taking back” their country is a very terrifying idea . . . women in the kitchen, blacks in the back of the bus, gays in the closet . . . no, if that’staking my country, thanks, but no thanks!

  3. This is incredibly flimsy. No actual results have been reported and plenty of cross over votes could have occurred. Is Clinton favored to win the state? Yes. Can Trump win Nevada? That’s very possible.

  4. Trump wins the popular vote by a very wide margin. The people who control the people counting the ballots dictate a Clinton win and all hell breaks loose nationwide.
    In a word, CHAOS. If on November 9th you think it’ll be smart to get to the ATM and to stock up on food, you will soon find out that you are totally desperate…. more confusion, more chaos.

    • What a bunch of bunk. If Clinton wins the election, there may be people (Trump supporters) out in the streets protesting, but there won’t be any violence, because this talk about violence (from Trump supporters) is pure B.S. They don’t have the balls or guts to really do that. It’s just talk.

    • Voting is monitored on a local level, with one Republican and one Democrat at polling stations . . . so how is this going to be rigged?. Of course, there’s always a Trump supporter at a polling place with his open carry gun *as happened in Virginia) that might deter a Clinton or other voter. Only a loser would whine about the election being rigged. Are there enough nut jobs out there to take up arms because they’re as bad of losers as Donnie . . . sadly, probably, yes . . . but that only shows Trump’s destructive force, and why he’d be a disaster for this country. Sorry, Charlie, but just can’t support a candidate that is supported by the KKK . . .

  5. Nevada 2016 Voter Registration Statistics
    295.3k-Non Partisan

    Total 1.47 mil.

  6. Update

    Nevada 2016 Voter Registration Statistics as of Oct 2016

    355.5k-Non Partisan

    Total 1.67 mil.

    This article is just a lie. Plain and simple

  7. I don’t understand this article at all. All of the numbers its posting are directly contradicted by the source that it cites. 622,000 voters?! Well then why does the report list 296,181 if you total up the correct columns?

  8. RCP actually has him ahead. He’s tied or won the last FOUR polls in Nevada, which is pretty shocking because it was considered a Hillary state for quite some time. Are hillary voters now going the way of some of my fellow trump voters? WOAH THE POLLS ARE AGAINST US? THEY MUST BE RIGGED!

    It’s not over till the fat lady sings. Or in this case, is in jail on federal graft charges.

    • The “fat lady” . . . oh, you just devastated Hillary and her followers . . . LMAO . . . Deplorable, if you weren’t so pathetic, you would be deplorable! BTW, Trump’s height and weight makes him obese.

  9. I think what they need to emphasize that the number of ballots cast do not show that the votes were cast for democrats, it means that ppl listed as democrats voted.

  10. Trump beat her in every single county in Nevada except for Clark County. Not only that, but he is beating her with the absentee vote as well. If you add Trump’s votes to those that voted for “Other,” (one fourth of all votes) you can see that more than 60% of Nevadans who voted early didn’t vote for Hillary. She is only leading because one fourth of early voters voted for “other,” probably Stein or Johnson. So, those are the idiots to thank if Hillary wins.