With Election Day less than a week away, Nevada remains one of the biggest open questions in the 2016 race. FiveThirtyEight, a website that uses polls to predict who will win the presidency, has Nevada at a virtual tie, giving Clinton a 50.1 percent chance of winning and Donald Trump a 49.9 percent chance.
Winning Nevada is a bigger deal for Trump than it is for Clinton. If Trump secures all the states leaning in his direction plus Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Maine’s second congressional district, but he loses Nevada, that puts him at 264 electoral votes, just shy of victory. In other words, he could perform the incredible task of winning almost every battleground state he needs, but his pathway is so narrow that losing just a single one of them is enough to end it all. In the aforementioned scenario, making up for a Nevada loss with a win of Wisconsin or Michigan would take him over 270, but both of those states seem out of reach at this point.
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are currently neck and neck in Nevada’s polls, but in recent days, following a bad week of news for Hillary Clinton, Trump has taken the lead. Real Clear Politics’ polling average has Trump ahead of Clinton in the state by 2.0 percentage points.
Here are the five most recent major polls of Nevada.
CNN/ORC: Trump Leads by Six Points
The latest poll from CNN/ORC gives Trump an impressive lead over Hillary Clinton, ahead of her by six points. The poll was conducted by speaking to 790 likely voters from October 27th through November 1st. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.
This is a five point drop for Clinton since this poll was conducted from October 10th through October 15th. In that earlier poll, Clinton lead Trump by four points, 50 percent to 46 percent. In the previous poll, three percent of voters chose neither candidate, and that is also the case is the new version of the poll.
Also, when the poll was conducted from October 10th through October 15th, 53 percent of voters said they approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. Now, 47 percent said they approve of the job he is doing. Between the two polls being conducted, it was announced that Obamacare premiums will rise next year. Donald Trump has latched onto this issue in recent weeks, pointing out that Hillary Clinton wants to keep Obamacare in place, adding fixes to it, whereas he promises to repeal it entirely.
Of those polled, most voters said that Donald Trump would do a better job as president when it comes to the economy, immigration, terrorism, and trade, whereas Hillary Clinton would do a better job with foreign policy and health care.
Remington Research: Trump Leads by Four Points
Another new poll from Remington Research gives Trump a lead of four points. The poll was conducted by speaking to 1176 likely voters on October 30th. This lead is an increase from a Remington Research poll conducted on October 20th, which had Trump with a three point lead. The poll’s margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.
Four percent of those polled said they would be voting for Gary Johnson, while one percent said they’d vote for someone else and three percent said they are still undecided. In this poll, Hillary Clinton won over 14 percent of registered Republicans, but Donald Trump won over 21 percent of registered Democrats. Of those voters who are not registered with a major party, Donald Trump is also in the lead, 44 percent to 37 percent.
However, Hillary Clinton is winning among female voters, ahead of Trump by five points. Trump leads among male voters, ahead of Clinton by 15 points. Hillary Clinton also has a substantial lead among voters between the ages of 18 and 29, as 55 percent of those in this group say they’re voting for Hillary Clinton whereas just 31 percent said they’re voting for Donald Trump. On the other hand, Trump leads among voters between the ages of 30 and 39, with 50 percent favoring him and 40 percent favoring Clinton.
Clinton also leads among African American and Hispanic voters, with 73 percent of African Americans and 52 percent of Hispanics in her camp.
Emerson: Clinton Leads by Two Points
The most recent poll from Emerson looks better for Hillary Clinton, as she is ahead of Donald Trump by two points. The poll was conducted by speaking to 550 likely voters on October 26th and October 27th, meaning voters were polled before the news broke that the FBI would be investigating new emails that may or may not be relevant to their probe of Hillary Clinton’s private server. Both of the previous polls showing Trump in the lead were conducted after that news came out. The margin of error in this Emerson poll is 4.1 percentage points.
Three percent of Nevada voters picked Gary Johnson, while 10 percent of voters said they are still undecided.
Both candidates have extremely high unfavorable ratings in the state, as is shown by basically every poll in every single state across the country. Among Nevada voters, 60 percent have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump, and 54 percent have an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton.
Gravis: Clinton and Trump Tied
A Gravis poll, which was released prior to the FBI email investigation news, has Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump tied. The poll was conducted on October 25th by speaking to 875 likely voters. The margin of error is 3.3 percentage points.
A plurality of Nevada voters, 47 percent, said they “strongly disapprove” of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. “Somewhat disapprove” was also an option, but only four percent chose that instead of “strongly.”
Donald Trump has been complaining that the election is going to be rigged, and he has much of Nevada convinced that this is the case. Of those polled, 43 percent said the election is either “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to be rigged. But a plurality of voters, 55 percent, said this is either “not very likely” or “not likely at all.”
Interestingly, this is one of the few polls that specifically asked voters how they felt about the FBI’s decision not to prosecute Hillary Clinton for her use of a private e-mail server, and 50 percent of those polled said that the FBI made the wrong decision and that Clinton should have been prosecuted. Forty-five percent said that the FBI made the correct decision, and five percent said they aren’t sure.
Finally, 70 percent of voters said they are either “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” about securing the border, a plurality of them – 34 percent – said they want to stop bringing refugees into the country, and 56 percent said that Obamacare has not been a success.
NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton and Trump Tied
The most recent poll from NBC/WSJ/Marist shows yet another tie between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. The poll was conducted from October 20th through October 24th by speaking to 707 likely voters. The margin of error is 3.7 percentage points.
The previous poll from NBC/WSJ/Marist had Clinton ahead of Trump by one point.
But Hillary Clinton seems to be doing particularly well among Nevada early voters. This poll found that 13 percent of likely voters in the state have already voted, and among them, 60 percent say they voted for Hillary Clinton. But among those who haven’t voted yet, Donald Trump is favored, 46 percent to 42 percent.