Today is the presidential election, and Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have been incredibly close in the polls. According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton is at 45.3 percent in the polls and Trump is at 42 percent. What are the odds that one candidate will win over the other in this very close race? Who’s predicting a win for Democrats or Republicans? Is anyone predicting a third-party surprise? These are all the major odds and predictions.
Here’s what you need to know.
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight Said That Predicting Clinton Had a 98 Percent Chance of Winning Lacks ‘Common-Sense’
A lot of places are predicting that Clinton has a virtually 100 percent chance of winning. But Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight warns against this. He said that although Clinton has a three-point lead, believing that this lead is enough to win 98 percent of the time lacks common sense. “We’ve seen lots of elections where there’s about a three-point polling error,” he said. Undecided voters could have a big impact on either side. Clinton’s overall weaker in the Midwest, he said, than Obama was. The demographics aren’t as strong for white noncollege voters, which might be trouble in a race this close, Silver said.
FiveThirtyEight is giving Clinton a 71.4 percent chance of winning, and Donald Trump a 28.5 percent chance. They are also predicting that Gary Johnson will get 4.8 percent of the vote, but only a .3 percent chance of winning an electoral vote. Meanwhile, they’re giving McMullin a 13 percent chance of winning an electoral vote. There’s a 1.2 percent chance of an electoral deadlock and a 1.2 percent chance of a 269-269 electoral tie.
Predictwise Gives Hillary Clinton an 89 Percent Chance of Winning
Using the prediction markets, such as Betfair, Predictit, and Hypermind, along with polling from HuffPost Pollster and stats from OddsChecker, PredictWise gave an 89 percent likelihood that Hillary Clinton would win and an 11 percent likelihood for Donald Trump. Interestingly, they ranked Evan McMullin with an 11 percent chance of winning Utah, the only state they predicted a third-party candidate as having a chance to win.
Hypermind Predicts a 74 Percent Chance for Clinton
Hypermind, meanwhile is giving Clinton a 74 percent chance of winning the White House, Trump a 24 percent chance, and “someone else” a 2 percent chance. This is one of the few predictions acknowledging a shot for a third-party or independent candidate.
The New York Times Predicts an 84 Percent Chance for Clinton
The New York Times’ Upshot model gives Clinton an 84 percent chance of winning and Trump a 16 percent chance.
Meanwhile, Matthew Dowd of ABC News said that Clinton had a 95 percent chance of winning, and she’d likely win by a higher margin than President Obama in 2012. He predicted she would win by more than 5 million votes.
Stock Performance Predicts for Trump
The S&P 500 stock market index is pointing to a Trump win, CNBC reported. The stock market’s performance between July 31 and October 31 is used by some to predict the winner. If the stock market performance is negative in that time period, then the challenger wins the election 86 percent of the time. The only time the incumbent party won during a negative stock market performance was in 1956.
A Professor Who’s Accurately Predicted for 30 Years Predicts for Trump
In another prediction fro Trump, a professor who’s accurately predicted the election for the last 30 years is pointing to a Trump win, The Washington Post reported. Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, is throwing his three-decade-long streak behind Donald Trump. The keys to his predictions, he said, are 13 true/false statements. If six are false, the incumbent party loses.
So in general, most major polls and predictions are forecasting a Clinton win. But a few outliers with a strong history of accurate predictions are forecasting for Trump.
Read more about the election odds in Spanish at AhoraMismo.com:
¿Puede Donald Trump gana la elección? Estas son las probabilidades que el candidato republicano gane el martes.Click here to read more