National Weather Service Hurricane Irma on September 5.
Hurricane Irma is an extremely dangerous storm, with 185 mph winds. However, what are the chances that the massive storm will strike South Carolina and cities like Charleston and Myrtle Beach?
They’re increasing but still not certain. The governor on September 6 declared a state of emergency for South Carolina, saying that Hurricane Irma “may pose a significant threat to the state.” The forecast cone for September 7 from the National Weather Service includes South Carolina.
NWSThe Hurricane Irma forecast for 11 a.m. on Thursday, September 7.
Hurricane conditions are now listed as possible for Monday in Charleston.
Charleston forecast as of noon on September 7.
“The National Hurricane Center has determined from forecast models that the State of South Carolina may be impacted by Hurricane Irma,” the governor wrote. “I have been advised that Hurricane Irma, and the associated wind, heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather, to include tornadoes, may pose a significant threat to the State of South Carolina.”
The September 7 update for the hurricane says that the chances of direct impact to South Carolina are increasing but remain uncertain.
Key Messages on Hurricane #Irma as of 11 am AST/EDT:
The governor ordered that he was directing that “the South Carolina Emergency Operations Plan be placed into effect.” He also ordered the activation of South Carolina National Guard at the the discretion of officials. See the governor’s full statement here:
JUST IN: @henrymcmaster has declared a state of emergency in South Carolina ahead of #HurricaneIrma‘s potential landfall #scpol
It all depends on which model you use, but the latest ones are not good news for the Carolinas, and especially South Carolina. The latest GFS models show Hurricane Irma heading to the east of Florida, rushing up the Eastern Seaboard, perhaps making landfall somewhere in the Carolinas. Read more about those models here. Spaghetti models – which literally look like noodles on a map – also are showing an eastward and northern track for the hurricane, imperiling South Carolina.
South Florida Waste Management DistrictThursday morning spaghetti model.
Currently, the storm’s path shows it will likely strike southern Florida and the Florida Keys; what it will do after turning northward is not yet entirely clear. The Post Courier reported on September 5, “The storm could possibly cross Florida, reemerge in the Atlantic and head up toward a landfall in the Carolinas. A direct track to South Carolina could not yet be ruled out.” On September 6 and 7, those chances increased as models showed the hurricane shifting to the east.
The September 7 hazardous weather outlook for South Carolina by the National Weather Service reads:
“Friday through Wednesday. Tropical Weather: Impacts associated with Hurricane Irma are expected this weekend into early next week. It is still too early to pin down the magnitude of the impacts as there remains uncertaintywith the track the hurricane will take and how strong it will be as it approaches the Southeast United States. Everyone across Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia, especially those in hurricane prone areas, should have a hurricane plan in place and continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.”
Rip Currents: Long period swells generated by approaching Hurricane Irma will persist into early next week. These swells will enhance the risk for powerful and dangerous rip currents at area beaches into early next week as Irma draws closer to the region.”
Big shift east between the 12z and 18z runs of the GFS. Seems like an outlier but we’ll see if this becomes a trend. #Irma
According to the NWS Charleston Office, “The NWS Charleston, SC Forecast Office is working closely with our partners to ensure that our area is prepared for any potential impacts Irma will bring locally. We are working with the National Hurricane Center, as well as other national, regional, and local NWS forecast offices to ensure that the best possible forecast is created. We are working with state and local officials to deliver this forecast to assist with decision making leading up to the storm. We are working with local and national broadcast meteorologists to ensure that a consistent message and accurate forecast is delivered to the public to assist with your decision making.”
The office added: “While significant uncertainty remains with the track of Irma after it passes South Florida, there are a number of things you should be taking care of NOW while the local impacts from the storm continue to the ironed out:
* Know your evacuation zone and route. If an evacuation is ordered for your area, get out early.
* Have a plan for protecting yourself and your loved ones regardless of if an evacuation is or is not ordered. Consider your pets and your home in this plan.
* Have a disaster supply kit including food, water, flashlights and batteries, first aid supplies, etc.
* Stay tuned to RELIABLE sources of information including weather.gov/chs, hurricanes.gov, reputable local and national broadcast media, and local and state officials. Do not trust everything you see on social media!”
The National Weather Service’s office that serves Atlanta released this video update on September 6 and said that two of the September 6 models show the hurricane making landfall in South Carolina, whereas others show it heading out to sea.
It’s all headed to Florida and then “a quick right turn happening a little sooner, this is now Sunday,” the update says. The update says most of the models that far out “are taking it out to sea,” and “two of the models are showing a landfall in South Carolina.” The day before, there was a slightly more westward path of the hurricane that imperiled Georgia more. The update also noted an eastward shift in Irma.
You can read the weather forecast for Myrtle Beach here. (Savannah, Georgia’s weather is also charted through the Charleston office.)
See updated radar for Charleston here. See the hourly forecast here. See infrared satellite maps here.
According to The National Weather Service, “#Irma is the strongest #hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea & Gulf of Mexico in NHC records.”
The Post and Courier has put together a local hurricane guide for South Carolina.
There are currently no hurricane warnings for South Carolina.
Here’s an extended forecast for Charleston from the National Weather Service:
“This Afternoon (September 7)
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind 10 to 14 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Northeast wind around 14 mph.
Saturday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
Showers. High near 77. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers. Low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday
Hurricane conditions possible. Showers. High near 78. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Monday Night
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 70. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 84.”