Hurricane Maria Florida Keys & Key West: Are They in the Path? [Sept. 18]

NHC Hurricane Maria on the evening of September 18.

With Hurricane Maria intensifying to a Category 5 storm and churning along a path that looks, in some respects, ominously similar to that of Hurricane Irma, many people are wondering whether Maria could also strike the Florida Keys and Key West.

The latest forecast models still show Maria taking more of a northern turn than Irma did, which could be good news for all of Florida, not just the Keys. Furthermore, the Keys were not in the zone of uncertainty in the September 18 projected path for the storm from the National Hurricane Center, and they were not under a hurricane watch or warning.

However, the storm remains unpredictable and, as many remember, Irma also looked poised to head out to sea before suddenly shifting to a western track. Follow updated radar for Key West here.

Here’s the September 18 evening forecast model for Hurricane Maria from the National Hurricane Center:

Hurricane Maria on the evening of September 18.

Here’s the forecast wind arrival time for the storm:

maria wind times

Maria wind times.

The latest spaghetti models show a similar northward turn.

The storm’s path is starting to look more like Jose’s than Irma’s:

The hazardous weather outlook on September 18 for Key West reported nothing about hurricanes.

“DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT. Heat index values will reach into the low 90s this afternoon..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday through Sunday. Cloud to surface lightning is the main threat. Afternoon heat index values in the low to mid 90s are expected each day. As of 8 p.m. on September 18, the National Hurricane Service warned, “MARIA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE…THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS NEARING DOMINICA…”

Here was the storm’s specific location; its wind speeds were now reaching 160 mph:

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.3N 61.1W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 40 MI…70 KM N OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…925 MB…27.32 INCHES

At this point, the Florida Keys and Key West were not under a hurricane watch or warning for Maria. Per the National Hurricane Center:

“SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border.”

This was the extended forecast for Key West from the National Weather Service as of September 18:

“Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 82. North wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 82. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night

Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 81. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

Thursday Night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 80. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 80. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 81. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday

Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 20%.”