Troy Tulowitzki bats during the 2014 Home Run Derby at Target Field in Minnesota. (Getty)
With Major League Baseball’s Opening Day [April 6th] less than two weeks from now, that means fantasy baseball is right around the corner too and Heavy.com has it covered.
Heavy ranks and projects the top players at each position including their 2014 statistics as well as a player preview for the upcoming 2015 season. The follow list is Heavy’s projected top 20 shortstops for the 2015 season.
The stats included for reach player listed are: Games, Batting Average, On Base %, Slugging %, OPS (OB + SLG), Home Runs, Runs Batted In.
1. Ian Desmond
Ian Desmond of the Washington Nationals (Getty)
2014 Stats: 154 G; .255/.313/.430; .743; 24 HR; 91 RBI
2015 Outlook: SURPRISE! A list where Troy Tulowitzki is not the first shortstop listed. The rationale is simple. Desmond has averaged at least 154 games in four of his last five seasons. The one season he didn’t, 2012, he only played in 130 games, which was the season where he made his only All-Star appearance.
Backwards, right? Desmond has averaged at least 22 home runs in his last three seasons. In that same time span, Tulo has only averaged 88 games per season and still averaged 18 in that same time frame.
The 25-point drop in Desmond’s 2014 batting average is worrisome, but it does happen. For a premium position like shortstop, the everyday player should be more valuable. In this case: Desmond is one year younger than Tulo (29 vs. 30) and also just plays in more games. Tulo is the better hitter, and when he is healthy, he is one of the best in ALL of baseball, but that is IF he is healthy.
2015 Projections: 156 G; .265/.320/.420; .740; 28 HR; 102 RBI
2. Troy Tulowitzki
2014 Stats: 91 G; .340/.432/.603; 1.035; 21 HR; 52 RBI
2015 Outlook: Tulowitzki has reached the 150-game plateau twice in his career. He’s the best combination of glove and bat in the sport, but his durability concerns in addition to being on the wrong side of 30 now should only be cause for concern. That and playing in a perpetual rebuilding organization like Colorado where he never has consistent teammates around him will eventually come back to bite his value.
The truth is: Tulo could be dealt any day now, and then he will become more useful in fantasy. Until that day comes, be the owner who waits around to see if you can nab Tulo one round later than he is projected – then hope for the best.
2015 Projections: 130 G; .325/.390/.510; .900; 22 HR; 78 RBI
3. Hanley Ramirez
2014 Stats: 128 G; .283/.369/.448; .817; 13 HR; 71 RBI
2015 Outlook: Hanley experienced a career renaissance in 2013, magically hitting .345 in 86 games. Although he didn’t match that average in 2014, he still hit a more-than-respectable .283 in 128 games.
Hanley signed a big four-year, $88 million contract with the Red Sox to help fix their left side of the infield. Together with Xander Boegarts, they make a formidable team that can man either infield position. Hanley’s real value is in his SS/3B eligibility. He is still only 31, which means he has more than a few good seasons left in him. The price tag may be slightly lofty, but the payout should be worth it.
2015 Projections: 145 G; .295/.340/.410; .750; 18 HR; 84 RBI
4. Starlin Castro
Starlin Castro of the Chicago Cubs (Getty)
2014 Stats: 134 G; .292/.339/.438; .777; 14 HR; 65 RBI
2015 Outlook: Castro was an enigma in 2013. His 2014 numbers look A LOT closer to his 2012 numbers than 2013, which is an immensely good sign for all Cubs fans.
The recently turned 25-year-old has mostly been on some bad Cubs teams. Now, he’s expected to play for a team that should not only challenge for .500, but a Wild Card spot as well. Expect a rejuvenated Castro to have a career-year at the plate, challenge .300 and set a career-high in home runs. He may also end up being the top shortstop in fantasy baseball by the time 2015 is over.
2015 Projections: 159 G; .295/.340/.440; .780; 20 HR; 90 RBI
5. Jimmy Rollins
2014 Stats: 138 G; .243/.323/.394; .717; 17 HR; 55 RBI
2015 Outlook: Between Alexei Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins, which over 30-year-old shortstop do you trust more to repeat his 2014 statistical output: Ramirez or Rollins?
The truth of the matter is: Rollins was simply never a high-average player, but that was mainly because he was averaging well over 600-plus plate-appearances per season. He is a much more productive player than given credit for when he has more plate-appearances. Last year he was much more productive and only came to bat 539 times. If healthy, he will challenge closer to 600 plate-appearances as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers now.
Oh yeah, Rollins is now a Los Angeles Dodger.
2015 Projections: 130 G; .250/.330/.375; .705; 15 HR; 54 RBI
6. Jose Reyes
2014 Stats: 143 G; .287/.328/.398; .726; 9 HR; 51 RBI
2015 Outlook: Reyes is a great player when he is healthy, and he surprisingly lasted almost a full season in 2014. The 31-year-old hits atop a much-improved batting order. This means Reyes will probably not steal as much as he has in year’s past – not that he has to, he has a career .291/.341/.435 split, which is very good for a leadoff shortstop.
Last year he had 30 stolen bases. Expect his stolen base total to drop slightly into the 20-25 range. Because of this slight drop, Reyes takes a bump to just outside of the projected top five.
2015 Projections: 146 G; .270/.325/.375; .700; 7 HR; 49 RBI
7. Alexei Ramirez
2014 Stats: 158 G; .273/.305/.408; .713; 15 HR; 74 RBI
2015 Outlook: Ramirez doesn’t deserve to drop out of the top seven. 2012 and 2013 were the outliers in an otherwise symmetrical career path. If Ramirez is healthy, he should produce a respectable .270/.310/.390, 15/70 season on par to what he’s averaged in his career, especially in an improved lineup that boasts a healthy Jose Abreu and Adam LaRoche.
2015 Projections: 154 G; .255/.300/.375; .675; 13 HR; 65 RBI
Jean Segura of the Milwaukee Brewers (Getty)
2014 Stats: 146 G; .246/.289/.326; .614; 5 HR; 31 RBI
2015 Outlook: ESPN ranks him behind players like Erick Aybar and Ben Zobrist. At this point, Segura is the superior player in comparison to both.
The 25-year-old had a rough season, but that was to be expected after a bad start and the loss of his son. Segura has more than enough time and talent to put it completely together. He won’t hit .246 again, he won’t steal less than 25 bases again and he won’t have less than 140 hits again.
2015 Projections: 159 G; .265/.310/.335; .645; 5 HR; 45 RBI; *37 SB*
9. J.J. Hardy
2014 Stats: 141 G; .268/.309/.372; .682; 9 HR; 52 RBI
2015 Outlook: This is a gut feeling: Hardy had a career year in 2013 with his 2nd All-star appearance and 2nd Gold Glove, then in 2014 his numbers dipped mightily, despite the Orioles winning 96 games. This was also without Manny Machado for a good portion of the 2nd half. This means that the Orioles are seriously undervalued heading into 2015 or Hardy and Machado are overrated.
I have a hard time believing the latter, which is why Hardy’s campaign in 2014 was fluky. He will bounce back with numbers closer to 2011-13 Hardy than 2014 one.
2015 Projections: 148 G; .265/.325/.365; .690; 18 HR; 75 RBI
10. Elvis Andrus
2014 Stats: 157 G; .263/.314/.333; .647; 2 HR; 41 RBI
2015 Outlook: With Andrus, what you see is what you get. He’s a solid leadoff hitter on a bad team that will hit .270, finish the season with 160 hits and steal 30 bases. Andrus is the Michael Bourn of shortstops.
Andrus is the safest shortstop, but because he has probably already peaked, he has a high floor and a low ceiling.
2015 Projections: 154 G; .270/.320/.330; .650; 3 HR; 35 RBI; *42 SB*
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11. Ben Zobrist
2014 Stats: 146 G; .272/.354/.395; .749; 10 HR; 52 RBI
2015 Outlook: In: Ben Zobrist and Billy Butler. Out: Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson. Nobody knows what to expect in Oakland this season, but Zobrist has some big shoes to fill, regardless.
The bad news is: Zobrist hasn’t been a difference-making fantasy player in two seasons. He’s drafted high because of his multiple-position eligibility. He’ll get the plate-appearances to sink or swim in 2015.
2015 Projections: 142 G; /250/.330/.350; .680; 12 HR; 50 RBI
12. Jhonny Peralta
2014 Stats: 157 G; .263/.336/.443; .779; 21 HR; 75 RBI
2015 Outlook: Jhonny Peralta is the anti-Elvis Andrus. Andrus is a speedy, top-of-the-order slap-hitter who can field his position well and steal bases. Peralta is a below-average defensive shortstop who can hit and do so well enough to keep a job somewhere.
Hitting in the Cardinals lineup means he will have opportunities to eclipse 70 RBI again like he did in 2014.
2015 Projections: 136 G; .245/.310/.375; .685; 15 HR; 58 RBI
13. Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts of the Boston Red Sox (Getty)
2014 Stats: 144 G; .240/.297/.362; .660; 12 HR; 46 RBI
2015 Outlook: Is this a bit high for Bogaerts? Probably, but he is a special 22-year-old player that doesn’t come around often.
In 2014, Bogaerts was great until the beginning of June… until the sophomore slump finally hit him. At the end of August he was batting .224, but recovered nicely with a 30-hit September that raised his average 16 points up to .240.
The Red Sox signed the aforementioned Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, which should take a slight burden off of Bogaerts’ shoulders, allowing him to continue to develop properly. It will also put him in a position for more RBI opportunities and to see better pitches – something a talented young player likes to see.
2015 Projections: 162 G; .265/.330/.375; .705; 15 HR; 60 RBI
14. Alcides Escobar
2014 Stats: 162 G; .285/.317/.377; .694; 3 HR; 50 RBI
2015 Outlook: Escobar is a lot like Elvis Andrus except a little less consistent, which is why he is ranked a few spots behind Andrus. Escobar also hasn’t played in less than 145 games since 2010, making him a durable player at a position where durability is a huge bonus. He is the type of player you grab in a tandem with Hardy or Peralta to balance out statistical needs.
2015 Projections: 162 G; .275/.320/.380; .700; 5 HR; 50 RBI
15. Andrelton Simmons
2014 Stats: 146 G; .244/.286/.331; .617; 7 HR; 46 RBI
2015 Outlook: His fielding numbers are already off the charts, but that doesn’t matter a whole lot for fantasy purposes. If he can ever find his 2013 power production and then figure out a way to raise his batting average 30 more points on a consistent basis, he has the tools to be a good second-tier shortstop in fantasy.
2015 Projections: 158 G; .255/.300/.340; .640; 10 HR; 54 RBI
16. Javier Baez
2014 Stats: 52 G; .169/.227/.324; .551; 9 HR; 20 RBI
2015 Outlook: The 22-year-old and former 9th overall selection in the 2011 MLB Entry Draft layed only 52 games as a rookie in 2015. He struggled hitting just .169, but is expected to be a contributor for Chicago in 2015.
2015 Projections: 148 G; .235/.290/.340; .650; 22 HR; 72 RBI
17. Danny Santana
2014 Stats: 101 G; .319/.353/.472; .824; 7 HR; 40 RBI
2015 Outlook: Santana hit .319 with 41 extra-base hits and 20 stolen bases in 2014. The main problem for Santana is: is he the Twins’ answer at shortstop and if so, what is he actually worth?
Until those questions are answered, Santana can’t be called on to repeat his interesting 2014 numbers.
2015 Projections: 148 G; .235/.290/.340; .650; 22 HR; 72 RBI
18. Jed Lowrie
2014 Stats: 136 G; .249/.321/.355; .676; 6 HR; 50 RBI
2015 Outlook: Lowrie used to wear a dual-flap helmet, and is probably the closest thing Major League Baseball has to Mark Derosa left – although DeRosa played outfield, too.
2015 Projections: 138 G; .235/.300/.340; .640; 8 HR; 52 RBI
19. Asdrubal Cabrera
2014 Stats: 146 G; .241/.307/.387; .694; 14 HR; 61 RBI
2015 Outlook: Cabrera came out of nowhere in 2011 to earn an All-Star selection. He also hit 25 home runs that season, a number that he’s failed to eclipse in each of his last five seasons. The highest he’s reached was 16 and that was in the season after.
The Nationals took a flier on Cabrera last July and his production was pretty similar to what we’ve come to expect. Cabrera lands himself in a good situation where he doesn’t have to be the focal point of the batting order. With a more secondary role in Washington, expect his average and hits to spike upward a bit in 2015.
2015 Projections: 144 G; .240/.310/.370; .680; 15 HR; 64 RBI
20. Didi Gregorius
2014 Stats: 80 G; .226/.290/.363; .653; 6 HR; 27 RBI
2015 Outlook: Gregorius will never even remotely come close to filling any spec of dirt that Derek Jeter’s cleats left at the hot corner in Yankee stadium, however, Gregorius has an interesting situation to take advantage of.
Being in a “platoon” with Brendan Ryan shouldn’t worry Gregorius because Ryan has been an average bench utility player for his career. If the 25-year-old hits at least .250 in Yankee Stadium – he accomplished that in his 1st full season as a Diamondback – in addition to sprinkling in enough extra-base hits and home runs here and there, he may have some tangible value in fantasy.
2015 Projections: 110 G; .245/.315/.380; .695; 12 HR; 47 RBI
