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Editor’s note: The odds below are courtesy of Heavy’s partners at OddsShark. Click here for more NFL odds and betting info at OddsShark.com.
About 16 months later, the New England Patriots finally get a chance at revenge against the Kansas City Chiefs after getting blown out by 27 points back in Week 4 of 2014.
This time around, there’s a little bit more on the line. Like, a fifth-straight trip to the AFC Conference Championship for New England. Or a first appearance there since 1993 for Kansas City.
Here’s a complete look at the all the betting info, along with a prediction and pick against the spread for the crucial battle:
Chiefs vs. Patriots Betting Info
Spread: New England (-5)
Moneyline: Kansas City (+180), New England (-22)
Over/Under: 42.5
Chiefs vs. Patriots Prediction
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Injuries to offensive skill players loom large in this one. Rob Gronkowski (knee, back) and Jeremy Maclin (ankle) are both questionable, while Julian Edelman (foot) will return, but it’s unclear how effective he’ll be after missing two months of action.
Ultimately, the five-point spread just feels too large. Not only has Gronk’s health always been crucial to New England’s efficiency on offense, but the Chiefs have a good running game and a couple of dangerous pass-rushers in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston who can cause nightmares for the Patriots’ inconsistent–at best–offensive line. The Chiefs, who have won 11 in a row with a league-best plus-20 turnover margin during that span, have the makeup to keep this thing close.
In a close game, though, can you really bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home, where the Patriots are 17-4 in the postseason?
Brady will undoubtedly face a lot of pressure, but he has the receivers–especially with Edelman back–who can get open quickly, allowing him to get the ball out fast and keep the Chiefs’ pass rush on its heels. And on the other side of the ball, the Pats were 10th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense rankings, and they have the athletic linebackers to prevent Alex Smith from running, so they should be able to make Kansas City have to beat them through the air.
And that’s the recipe to ending the Chiefs’ winning streak.
PICK: Patriots 21, Chiefs 17 (Patriots SU, Chiefs ATS, Under)