In the NBA season win totals, the Golden State Warriors are right at a threshold where one slump can lead to bettors who took the under profiting.
The Warriors’ response to blowing a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals following a record 73-win regular season was to sign Kevin Durant to join the big three of two-time MVP Stephen Curry, shooting guard Klay Thompson and forward Draymond Green. Whether Golden State proves greater than the sum of its impressive parts still has to be proven on the court.
Golden State’s over/under for the 2016/17 season has been set at 66.5 wins at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. So if the Warriors finish a mere 66-16, they would be under.
The defending NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers and the San Antonio Spurs each have a season win total of 56.5. The Cavaliers have averaged 54.6 wins over the last seven seasons where LeBron James wore their wine and gold uniforms. The Spurs, of course, brought in C Pau Gasol to replace retired Tim Duncan, which means more inside scoring but less post defense. The Spurs have won at least 57 games in three of the past four seasons.
The Los Angeles Clippers, whose star scorer Blake Griffin is bent on making the three-pointer a bigger part of his game, have a win total of 53.5 on those NBA betting lines for the season ahead. The Clippers had 53 wins last season even though injuries limited Griffin to 35 games.
The Boston Celtics, with Al Horford now installed in the post, are the highest projected Atlantic Division team with 51.5 wins. The Toronto Raptors are projected for 49.5.
Further down the board, the Portland Trail Blazers (46.5) and Charlotte Hornets (39.5) are both playoff incumbents with strong coaching and excellent backcourt play. The Blazers’ Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum and Hornets’ Kemba Walker are proven difference-makers.
Last season’s draft lottery winner, the Philadelphia 76ers, have a total of 27.5. However, No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons, the favorite on the odds to win rookie of the year, is likely to miss the early portion of the season with a fractured foot. Doubling their win total would only get the 76ers to 20 wins.
Deducing which teams might consider tanking for a shot at picking first could pay off. The Brooklyn Nets are at the bottom of the list at 20.5 wins, while the Los Angeles Lakers (24.5) and Phoenix Suns (26.5) are also pegged as likely bottom feeders.