Virginia senior point guard London Perrantes (Getty)
Two highly regarded teams take a break from conference play to meet in a key non-conference game, as No. 1 Villanova (19-2) hosts No. 12 Virginia (16-3) at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Jay Wright’s Wildcats are coming off of their second loss of the season, as they fell 74-72 at Marquette Tuesday night. As for Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers, Virginia has won five straight games with their most recent win being a 17-point victory at No. 14 Notre Dame.
According to OddsShark, the Wildcats are favored by 5.5 points on most sports books, with a couple listing the defending national champions as 5-point favorites. Villanova, which has lost its last two games against the spread, opened as a 4.5-point favorite. The point total, which opened at 121.5 points, has moved to anywhere from 123.5 to 125 points depending upon the sports book. OddsShark’s computer projects a final score of 73-66 in favor of Villanova.
On the season Villanova is 13-8 ATS, which includes an 8-4 mark in home games. Prior to their current two-game losing streak ATS, Villanova won four straight ATS which included home wins over Marquette and Xavier. Today’s game will be played at the Wells Fargo Center as opposed to The Pavilion on the Villanova campus, with the city venue being one that the Wildcats routinely come close to selling out if not packing completely for big games. Villanova’s record with the OVER hasn’t been particularly good, with the Wildcats 8-13 with the OVER and loses of four of their last five.
The visiting Cavaliers are 12-6 ATS on the season, including a record of 6-1 in road games. Virginia’s lone defeat ATS in a true road game was their 88-76 loss at Pittsburgh on January 4, a result that gets more puzzling by the day as the Panthers are 1-7 in ACC play. Virginia’s won four of its last five games ATS. The Cavaliers are just 7-11 with the OVER this season, and they’ve gone 3-3 in the last six games with the OVER. And in road games, Virginia is 2-5 with the OVER.
Both teams are led by talented senior guards, with Villanova boasting a national Player of the Year candidate in Josh Hart and reliable point guard London Perrantes pulling the strings for Virginia. The Cavaliers have more size in the front court, with that being the biggest concern for Villanova this season. And with Virginia’s pack line defense, shot discipline will be key for a Villanova team that doesn’t lack for quality perimeter shooters. If Villanova takes quality looks while not neglecting the paint area, they’ll improve their chances of having success offensively.
PREDICTION: Virginia +5.5 with the UNDER; Villanova wins straight up. Look for this to be a close game, with Virginia continuing its road success against the spread but falling short straight up.
