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Many questioned the No. 1 seeds for both North Carolina (seven overall losses) and Gonzaga (weak conference) at the beginning of the NCAA tournament, but here we are three weeks later, and the Tar Heels and Bulldogs are each 40 minutes away from a national championship.
While UNC is looking to erase the sting of last year’s title game, the Zags are seeking to bring the first national championship back to Spokane.
Here’s a preview of the 2016-17 college basketball finale:
UNC vs. Gonzaga National Championship Odds
Spread: UNC (-1.5), per OddsShark.com
Moneyline: UNC (-130), Gonzaga (+110)
Over/Under: 153
UNC Record Against the Spread: 19-17-2
Oregon Record Against the Spread: 24-11-2
Preview & Prediction
In an age when it’s becoming increasingly popular to play smaller lineups, spread the ball, and launch threes, the national championship will revolve around a couple of massive frontcourts.
Behind a quartet of big men–Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, Tony Bradley and Luke Maye–the Heels are the best offensive rebounding team in the country. That was once again on display Saturday night against Oregon in the Final Four, as they pulled down 17 offensive rebounds, including two in the final seconds to secure the victory.
The two biggest rebounds of North Carolina’s season. #FinalFour #GoHeels
The Heels have grabbed an astounding 78 offensive rebounds through five tournament games, but they’ve yet to face a frontcourt quite like Gonzaga’s. For example, Carolina’s first five opponents have ranked (in order) 341st, 333rd, 75th, 105th and 192nd in defensive rebounding percentage, while the Zags rank 47th.
Przemek Karnowski has the size to at least slow down Kennedy Meeks, who has 23 offensive rebounds this tournament, Johnathan Williams is a strong 6-foot-9 power forward, Zach Collins is a potential NBA lottery pick who comes off the bench, and Killian Tillie brings size and energy in small spurts.
While Roy Williams’ squad typically has a major advantage on the interior, it’ll be matched in terms of size, talent and depth in this one.
Additionally, Gonzaga has an important edge at point guard, where All-American Nigel Williams-Goss brings much more to the table offensively than a less-than-100-percent Joel Berry. The Washington transfer has poured in 46 points over the last two games, leading the way for a red-hot offense that has hit 21 of 43 three-point attempts (48.8 percent) in those games and just hung an efficient 1.069 points per possession against a South Carolina defense that had been stifling everyone.
Carolina has a star in Justin Jackson and an X-factor in Theo Pinson who will both be tough for Gonzaga to deal with, but Mark Few’s squad ultimately has the perfect mix of size and shooting to counter the Heels’ strengths and cut down the nets for the first time in school history.
Prediction: Gonzaga 73, North Carolina 71
