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Heading into the 2017 Open Championship, the oddsmakers’ two favorites–Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy–have both missed the cut at their last two tournaments.
Things are truly wide open, and it feels like there are about 50 different players who could win the year’s third major without it being a real surprise–and that’s not hyperbole.
As such, there’s no better time to scour the odds for sleeper picks and value bets. You can read on for my favorite such picks at Royal Birkdale, or you scroll to the bottom for the complete list of odds:
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: 20/1
Here’s how Matsuyama, ranked second in the world, has fared against the strongest fields this season:
World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions: Win
Tournament of Champions: 2nd
World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship: Tied 25th
Masters: Tied 11th
Players Championship: Tied 22nd
US Open: Tied 2nd
Not only has he consistently been in the thick of things at the biggest tournaments, but he’s the only player on Tour with five Top-2 finishes this season, he ranks seventh in strokes gained tee to green and ninth in strokes gained off the tee, and he should be well acclimated after finishing 14th in Ireland a couple weeks ago.
20-to-1 doesn’t exactly make him a sleeper, but getting Matsuyama with the eighth-shortest odds is a great value bet.
Alex Noren
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Odds: 33/1
Noren has missed the cut at the first two majors this year, but this is undoubtedly where you want to be betting him. He has nine professional wins in Europe–and five since the start of 2016. He finished 19th in his very first major appearance at the 2008 Open, which, by the way, took place at Birkdale. His only Top-10 major came at the 2012 Open. Say what you want about his inconsistent play in the United States, but when he’s in Europe, the 35-year-old Swede is a force to be reckoned with.
That upside is sort of already built into his price at 33-to-1, which is unfortunate, but he’s still someone worth targeting.
Charl Schwartzel
Odds: 66/1
We haven’t seen Schwartzel since he missed the cut at the US Open, but he’s worth a roll of the dice considering his recent history at the Open Championship. In his last seven starts at the year’s third major, he has a T7 (2014) and five Top-20 finishes.
Bernd Wiesberger
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Odds: 80/1
You might be able to find longer odds, but even at 80-to-1, I’m feeling the Bernd. Not only has he been excellent in Europe this year, racking up a win and four Top-10’s, but he hits the ball straight (his 74.70 percent driving accuracy would rank first on Tour if he had more measured rounds), which is going to be crucial to winning at this course, and he has performed well in big spots this year with a T12 at the Players and a T16 at the US Open.
The 31-year-old Austrian hasn’t done much of anything at the Open Championship, but he’s also never been playing quite this well, either.
Daniel Berger
Odds: 80/1
Give me all of the ‘Bergers and Bergers.
This is the ultimate hit-or-miss option. In 18 starts on Tour this season, Berger has a win, five Top-10’s and five missed cuts. The good news is that his win (St. Jude Clasic) and a runner-up finish (Travelers Championship) have come in two of his last three starts. The bad news is that the other start during that span was a missed cut at the US Open, where he managed to finish ahead of just 13 players.
Nevertheless, there is obvious upside here, and that’s what you’re looking for with picks in this price range. Berger could easily flame out, but he could just as easily throw up some low numbers. At 80-to-1, it’s worth seeing if the latter comes true.
Ross Fisher
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Odds: 125/1
Fisher missed the cut at the US Open, but his last five starts on the European Tour have all been Top-10’s. Throw in the fact the he finished a solid 39th when the Open was last played at Birkdale, and there should be a good deal of comfort for the England native.
Other intriguing longshots in this range include Francesco Molinari (90/1), Emiliano Grillo (100/1), Russell Knox (125/1) and Tony Finau (150/1).
2017 Open Championship Odds
Odds courtesy of OddsShark
Dustin Johnson: 10/1
Rory McIlroy: 10/1
Jordan Spieth: 11/1
Jason Day: 16/1
Sergio Garcia: 16/1
Jon Rahm: 16/1
Rickie Fowler: 18/1
Henrik Stenson: 20/1
Hideki Matsuyama: 20/1
Justin Rose: 20/1
Tommy Fleetwood: 20/1
Brooks Koepka: 28/1
Adam Scott: 28/1
Alexander Noren: 33/1
Justin Thomas: 35/1
Paul Casey: 35/1
Phil Mickelson: 35/1
Thomas Pieters: 35/1
Branden Grace: 40/1
Louis Oosthuizen: 40/1
Lee Westwood: 50/1
Patrick Reed: 50/1
Tyrrell Hatton: 50/1
Marc Leishman: 50/1
Brandt Snedeker: 66/1
Charl Schwartzel: 66/1
Charley Hoffman: 66/1
Martin Kaymer: 66/1
Matt Kuchar: 66/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick: 66/1
Shane Lowry: 66/1
Zach Johnson: 66/1
Bernd Wiesberger: 80/1
Bubba Watson: 80/1
Chris Wood: 80/1
Daniel Berger: 80/1
Kevin Kisner: 80/1
Rafael Cabrera-Bello: 80/1
Si Woo Kim: 90/1
Francesco Molinari: 90/1
Ian Poulter: 90/1
Andy Sullivan: 100/1
Danny Willett: 100/1
Emiliano Grillo: 100/1
J.B. Holmes: 100/1
Jason Dufner: 100/1
Jim Furyk: 100/1
Jimmy Walker: 100/1
Padraig Harrington: 100/1
Thorbjorn Olesen: 100/1