A primetime matchup on a chilly November night seems tailor-made for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ben Roethislisberger to get a cover and the under – and that notion is supported by the betting trends.
The Steelers are listed as seven-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans with a 44-point total for the NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Steelers, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, are 8-2 straight-up and 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 home games as a favorite of 6.5 or more points, and the total also finished under in seven of those contests. The Steelers are also 8-0 SU in their last eight games at night.
The game-time temperature at Heinz Field could be less than 40 F and those conditions could aid the Steelers in continuing to be one of the best under bets in the NFL. The total has gone under in eight of Pittsburgh’s nine games this season and has also gone under in eight of their last nine games overall.
Tennessee is 6-3 SU and 3-5-1 ATS, but its only two wins against teams with winning records came during weeks 2 and 3 of the season. The big challenge for Titans QB Marcus Mariota and his offense will be whether he and main targets such as WR Rishard Matthews and rookie WR Corey Davis will have any success in the passing phase.
The Titans average only 6.7 yards per attempt (22nd in the NFL) and they will be facing the Steelers’ No. 2-ranked pass defense.
The Titans, who are 3-15 SU in their last 18 road games against teams with winning records, are solid in the rushing phase with RB Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray, but will need to avoid falling behind if they wish to make use of that ground game.
Pittsburgh, which is 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS, has not been the offensive juggernaut of years past due to the decline in Roethlisberger’s touch on deep balls. But the 35-year-old QB has a genuine 1-2 punch in outside receiving threats since All-Pro WR Antonio Brown is being complemented well by rookie WR JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Titans’ defense, according to Football Outsiders, has faced the weakest competition in the NFL and is 22nd in scoring defense, so the Steelers could pick them apart with shorter routes.
Running back Le’Veon Bell has seen his yards per carry dip this season, but should find enough room to keep Pittsburgh, sitting at +650 on the Super Bowl 52 odds, in manageable down-and-distance scenarios. All in all, the Steelers, who failed to cover in their first two games this season against AFC South teams but are still 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in their last eight games against that division, have a good opportunity for a statement win.
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