New laws have been passed in China that requires games to disclose loot box item odds and went into effect May 1.
Any game that offers a random chance at loot boxes now have to share their probabilities in China. We did some digging and found the Heroes of the Storm drop rate along with Hearthstone’s. We reported on Overwatch’s drop rate earlier today. Trusting Google Translate can be tough since it translated Heroes of the Storm into “Storm Heroes” but luckily, the numbers remain the same.
- Rare items should occur in every box.
- Epic items should occur every 4.5 boxes (22.2 percent)
- Legendary items occur every 17.5 boxes, on average (5.7 percent)
- Each pack has a rare or higher quality card
- Epic card should occur every five packs (20 percent)
- Legendary card should occur every 20 packs (5 percent)
What we have gotten out of comparing the three Blizzard titles is that we have a pretty small chance of getting legendary loot. Overwatch is the most generous out of the bunch by offering a legendary item 7.4 percent of the time. Oddly, it is the stingiest when it comes to dropping epic (purple) items with a drop rate of 18.2 percent compared to the numbers for Heroes of the Storm and Hearthstone. These aren’t terrible percentages and they do come pretty close to what we’d expect.
What does this mean for the rest of the world?
We don’t know for sure if the drop rates remain the same in every part of the world or if these are just exclusive to China. It is entirely possible Blizzard jacks up the drop rates in China since we can see them to make it seem like loot drops more often than it does.
This does end up being a good thing for players since we now know the probabilities of getting something worthwhile out of our loot boxes or card packs. However, this could end up costing some of the smaller companies money. Overwatch did just become a billion dollar franchise and it probably has to thank loot boxes for a huge chunk of that. Blizzard will probably be okay in the long run but smaller studios that are relying on loot box sales to stay afloat will likely run into some problems if this becomes a trend elsewhere. Take League of Legends for example, most of their money comes from skins and random loot purchases, if you knew the exact percentages of the drops, would you continue buying them?