Today is Zapdos Day in Pokemon Go, meaning that from 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. PT (2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. ET), Zapdos will be available to fight in Raid Battles with players able to encounter a shiny Zapdos. According to researchers on The Silph Road subreddit, the shiny Zapdos rate has been significantly boosted from the shiny Articuno rate during Articuno Day.
User jostler57 asked other users in the subreddit how many shiny Zapdos they caught out of all the Raids they completed. The user got over 300 unique replies accounting for data of exactly 10,550 Raids.
The user found that out of all those raids, 1,182 shiny Zapdos were caught. According to their calculations, the Zapdos shiny rate is 11.2 percent.
The user did a similar calculation for all the shiny Articuno caught during Articuno Day and found that the shiny Articuno rate was only about four percent.
Now jostler57 did mention that one possible confounding variable might be double counting. The user explained that some replies were accounting for the entire group and that it’s possible that others from the group responded with their individual numbers. However the user reassured us that this would not majorly affect the rate percentage.
They also mentioned that another confounding variable might be some players getting higher shiny rates responding with higher propensity. They said that this could affect the percentage but only by one percent if at all.
Even if the user reduces the rate by one percent to account for confounding variables, they can still assume a shiny rate of 10 percent or higher.
Though keep in mind that just because the shiny rate is at 11.2 percent doesn’t mean that you’re guaranteed a shiny Zapdos every 10 Raids, as the user reminded us. They had plenty of responses reporting zero shiny Zapdos out of 30 Raids, though most of the responses weren’t that extreme.
Check out our guide on how to beat Zapdos here.