Both teams can advance with a win or a draw, and the Germans can win Group G with a draw. (The Americans need a win to do so.) Both teams can also still advance with a loss. But especially for the Americans, doing so could be tricky.
Here’s what you need to know about the odds of each team winning, tying and advancing:
1. Germany Is Favored to Win
Germany, which routed Portugal in its first game only to narrowly avoid losing in a 2-2 draw with Ghana, is favored to beat the U.S. and clinch the top spot in Group G.
Paddy Power gives the Germans 4/6 odds of winning, with 19/10 odds of a draw. The United States is a 9/1 longshot to win — the only scenario in which the Americans would win the group.
Bovada has the U.S. as slightly less of a longshot, with 15/2 odds of winning and 11/5 odds of a draw. The oddsmarker gives the Germans 20/33 odds of winning.
2. Fivethirtyeight Gives the U.S. Just a 14 Percent Chance to Win, but a 76 Percent Chance to Advance
Fivethirtyeight, which makes its predictions based on an automated forecast model, gives the United States just a 14 percent chance to win and a 64 percent chance to lose.
As Fivethirtyeight editor Nate Silver points out, a win or draw is the simplest way for the United States to advance, but that scenario is fairly unlikely.
That might not sound so challenging, but the Germans are the third-best team in the world, according to ESPN’s Soccer Power Index. Our forecast gives the U.S. a 14 percent chance of a win and a 22 percent chance of a draw — but a 64 percent chance of a loss. As a bonus, however, the U.S. will advance first from Group G if it beats Germany. That matters because the first-place team from Group G is likely to face Russia or Algeria in the Round of 16 — while the second-place team will face a stronger side in Belgium.
The U.S., though, can still advance to the knockout round with a loss depending on what happens in the Portugal-Ghana game, which takes place at noon, the same time as the U.S.-Germany game.
The Americans advance if Portugal and Ghana draw, or if the U.S. ends up on top in tiebreakers if one team wins. Because the U.S. leads both Ghana and Portugal in goal differential and has beaten Ghana head-to-head, there are enough paths to advancement for the United States that the Fivethirtyeight model gives the U.S. a 76 percent chance of advancing — up from 65 percent heading into Sunday’s game against Portugal.
3. The Most Likely Score Is a 1-1 Draw
The score prediction with the best odds of coming to fruition is a 1-1 draw, according to Paddy Power.
The eight scores with the best odds are all either a Germany win or a tie, with five of the top eight being German wins. The United States’ most likely victorious score is 1-0 — a longer shot to happen than a 3-0 win for the Germans.
The 10 outcomes with the best odds are as follows:
1-1 draw: 9/2
1-0 Germany win: 11/2
2-0 Germany win: 6/1
2-1 Germany win: 7.1
0-0 draw: 7/1
3-0 Germany win: 8/1
2-2 draw: 11/1
3-1 Germany win: 12/1
1-0 U.S. win: 16/1
2-1 U.S. win: 18/1
If you’re feeling super optimistic about a U.S. blowout win, here’s a good bet for you: The U.S. to win 4-0, which Paddy Power puts at 500/1. (Conversely, the odds of a 4-0 Germany win are a modest 22/1.)
4. The Most Likely Goal Scorer Is Germany’s Thomas Mueller
The top nine most likely goal scorers at Paddy Power are all Germans, led by Thomas Muller and Miroslav Klose. Clint Dempsey, who’s scored in each of the Americans’ first two games, is the most likely U.S. player to score.
The top players on each team to score are as follows, with the odds of the player scoring the first goal of the game in parentheses:
Thomas Mueller: 11/10 (4/1)
Miroslav Klose: 13/10 (9/2)
Mario Gotze: 6/4 (5/1)
Lukas Podolski: 15/8 (6/1)
Andre Schurrle: 15/8 (6/1)
5. The United States Is an 80/1 Longshot to Win the World Cup
Paddy Power lists the U.S. as an 80/1 longshot to win the World Cup, putting the Americans 12th on a list of the most likely teams to do so. Fivethirtyeight gives the U.S. about a 1 percent chance of winning.
Here are the odds:
Costa Rica: 55/1
United States: 80/1
South Korea: 1000/1
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