As election season comes to a close, it seems likely that the final call on which party has won Senate control will not be made on Election Day.
According to fivethirtyeight.com, “there’s only a 27% chance (the Republicans) will be able to claim their victory within the first 24 hours or so after polls close on November 4.”
This is dependent on various factors, including Independent Greg Orman‘s decision on who to caucus with if he wins his race in Kansas, and the possibility of runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana.
As of November 3rd, fivethirtyeight.com gave Nunn only a 26% chance of winning, so her aim is to keep Perdue under 50% and push the race to a run-off. They project Perdue to get 49.7 percent of the vote Tuesday, which of course is close enough that he could win outright Tuesday.
Interestingly, the Georgia runoff would not happen until January 6th, after Senate is sworn in on January 3rd.
Fivethirtyeight.com says “If there’s a runoff, Republicans would probably need to win Colorado, Iowa and Kansas for Georgia not to determine the majority. That’s possible but unlikely.”
This means that it’s likely that all eyes will be on Georgia over the winter.