Republican GOP Presidential Polls & Probabilities: Who’s Really Ahead?


With the fourth Republican presidential debate over, there's plenty of chatter about where the race for the GOP nomination stands one year out from the general election. The pace of the race for the nomination will pick up with more frequent debates in the coming months and the approaching caucuses and primaries, beginning with Iowa in February. Donald Trump and Ben Carson continue to sit atop most national horserace polls and polls in Iowa, while Trump has a double-digit lead over the rest of the field in New Hampshire. The Real Clear Politics national polling average has Trump (28.7 percent) in the lead with Carson at 19.7, Marco Rubio third at 12.7 percent, Ted Cruz fourth at 12 percent and Jeb Bush fifth at 5.3 percent. But as Nate Silver and others have pointed out, horserace polling two months before any votes are cast is a lousy indicator of who's really ahead in the race for the nomination. A look at the prediction markets monitored by Predictwise paints a different picture. A plurality of the betting money is on Rubio, who's seen by bettors and analysts as the establishment-backed candidate most likely to prevail when Trump and Carson eventually fall apart. Click right for a breakdown of where each candidate stands in the prediction markets. (Getty)

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