With just 20 days to go until the Iowa caucus, every day is essential. Candidates are looking to lock up key endorsements and beginning ad campaigns. As the first set of 2016 polls roll out, we’re starting to see surprising results.
Longtime favorite Hillary Clinton saw her national lead significantly cut in a new national poll, as Bernie Sanders closes nationally and in Iowa, and continues to lead in New Hampshire. The PredictWise betting markets aggregation still lists Clinton as a strong favorite for the nomination, but has Sanders rising.
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
The NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday gives Clinton a 3-point lead over Sanders at 48 percent to his 45 percent, with Martin O’Malley taking 5 percent. In the last poll of 2015, Clinton led by 18 points, with 49 percent of the vote to Sanders’s 31, a significant comeback for Sanders. The RealClearPolitics polling averages show a 10.6-point lead for Clinton at 49.4 percent to 38.8 for Sanders, with O’Malley taking 6 percent.
Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
The betting markets still favor Hillary. Sportsbook Paddypower holds Hillary as the odds-on favorite to take Iowa at 2/9, with Sanders at 11/4 and O’Malley at 50/1.
According to the latest poll from NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal, Bernie Sanders holds a 4.7-point lead over Clinton, 50 to 46, with O’Malley taking 1 percent. The recent Fox News poll is decidedly more friendly, showing Sanders with 50 percent and a 13-point lead over Clinton at 37, with O’Malley at 3 percent. According to the polling aggregation by RealClearPolitics, Sanders holds an average of 48 percent, a 4.7-point lead over Clinton’s 43.3, with O’Malley far behind at 2.3 percent.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
The betting markets clearly favor Sanders, too. Paddypower gives Sanders 8/15 odds to take the state primary, with Clinton at 11/8 and O’Malley at 80/1.
The Rest of the Country
According to an Investors Business Daily poll released Monday, Clinton is still leading the pack nationally, though that lead is shrinking. Clinton leads Sanders 43 percent to 39 percent, with O’Malley trailing at 2 percent. Fox News released a poll Friday, meanwhile, that’s a lot less optimistic for Sanders: Clinton maintains a 15-point lead, 54-39, in that poll, with O’Malley coming in at 3 percent. RealClearPolitics gives a monthly average lead of 12.8 points to Clinton, showing her at 48.3 percent to 35.5 for Sanders and 3.8 for O’Malley.
National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)
Clinton dipped one point on Monday in the PredictWise betting market aggregation but remains an 87 percent favorite to take the overall nomination. Sanders rises from 11 to 12 percent, with O’Malley flat at one percent.
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Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule
South Carolina: January 17, NBC
Wisconsin: February 11, PBS
Florida: March 9, Univision
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
Nevada: February 20
South Carolina: February 27
Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1
Kansas, Louisiana: March 5
Maine: March 6
Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8
Northern Mariana Islands: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26
Wisconsin: April 5
Wyoming: April 9
New York: April 19
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
West Virginia: May 10
Kentucky, Oregon: May 17
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7
Washington, D.C.: June 14