Democratic Polls for Jan. 11: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Despite picking up Planned Parenthoods endorsement, Hillary Clinton has a fading lead nationally and in New Hampshire, while Bernie Sanders is leading in New Hampshire. Getty)

Despite picking up Planned Parenthoods endorsement, Hillary Clinton has a fading lead nationally and in Iowa, while Bernie Sanders is leading in New Hampshire. (Getty)

With just 20 days to go until the Iowa caucus, every day is essential. Candidates are looking to lock up key endorsements and beginning ad campaigns. As the first set of 2016 polls roll out, we’re starting to see surprising results.

Longtime favorite Hillary Clinton saw her national lead significantly cut in a new national poll, as Bernie Sanders closes nationally and in Iowa, and continues to lead in New Hampshire. The PredictWise betting markets aggregation still lists Clinton as a strong favorite for the nomination, but has Sanders rising.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:


Hillary Clinton Iowa, Hillary Clinton polls

Hillary Clinton campaigns in Iowa, where new polls show her lead shrinking. (Getty)

The NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday gives Clinton a 3-point lead over Sanders at 48 percent to his 45 percent, with Martin O’Malley taking 5 percent. In the last poll of 2015, Clinton led by 18 points, with 49 percent of the vote to Sanders’s 31, a significant comeback for Sanders. The RealClearPolitics polling averages show a 10.6-point lead for Clinton at 49.4 percent to 38.8 for Sanders, with O’Malley taking 6 percent.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Hillary Clinton: 49.4%
  • Bernie Sanders: 38.8%
  • Martin O’Malley: 6%
  • The betting markets still favor Hillary. Sportsbook Paddypower holds Hillary as the odds-on favorite to take Iowa at 2/9, with Sanders at 11/4 and O’Malley at 50/1.

    New Hampshire

    Bernie Sanders, seen here on Larry Wilmore's show, continues to lead in New Hampshire. (Getty)

    Bernie Sanders, seen here on Larry Wilmore’s show, continues to lead in New Hampshire. (Getty)

    According to the latest poll from NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal, Bernie Sanders holds a 4.7-point lead over Clinton, 50 to 46, with O’Malley taking 1 percent. The recent Fox News poll is decidedly more friendly, showing Sanders with 50 percent and a 13-point lead over Clinton at 37, with O’Malley at 3 percent. According to the polling aggregation by RealClearPolitics, Sanders holds an average of 48 percent, a 4.7-point lead over Clinton’s 43.3, with O’Malley far behind at 2.3 percent.

    New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Bernie Sanders: 48%
  • Hillary Clinton: 43.3%
  • Martin O’Malley: 2.3%
  • The betting markets clearly favor Sanders, too. Paddypower gives Sanders 8/15 odds to take the state primary, with Clinton at 11/8 and O’Malley at 80/1.

    The Rest of the Country

    Martin O'Malley is a long shot for the Democratic nomination.  (Getty)

    Martin O’Malley is a long shot for the Democratic nomination. (Getty)

    According to an Investors Business Daily poll released Monday, Clinton is still leading the pack nationally, though that lead is shrinking. Clinton leads Sanders 43 percent to 39 percent, with O’Malley trailing at 2 percent. Fox News released a poll Friday, meanwhile, that’s a lot less optimistic for Sanders: Clinton maintains a 15-point lead, 54-39, in that poll, with O’Malley coming in at 3 percent. RealClearPolitics gives a monthly average lead of 12.8 points to Clinton, showing her at 48.3 percent to 35.5 for Sanders and 3.8 for O’Malley.

    National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

  • Hillary Clinton: 48.3%
  • Bernie Sanders: 35.5%
  • Martin O’Malley: 3.8%
  • Clinton dipped one point on Monday in the PredictWise betting market aggregation but remains an 87 percent favorite to take the overall nomination. Sanders rises from 11 to 12 percent, with O’Malley flat at one percent.

    News of the Day

  • The FBI expanded its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server while she served as Secretary of State to see whether public corruption laws were violated. Previous investigations into separate matters yielded a determination that no wrongdoing took place.

  • Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule

    Debate Schedule

    South Carolina: January 17, NBC

    Wisconsin: February 11, PBS

    Florida: March 9, Univision

    Iowa: February 1

    New Hampshire: February 9

    Nevada: February 20

    South Carolina: February 27

    Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
    Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1

    Kansas, Louisiana: March 5

    Maine: March 6

    Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8

    Northern Mariana Islands: March 12

    Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15

    Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22

    Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26

    Wisconsin: April 5

    Wyoming: April 9

    New York: April 19

    Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

    Indiana: May 3

    West Virginia: May 10

    Kentucky, Oregon: May 17

    California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7

    Washington, D.C.: June 14