Bernie Sanders, here at President Obama’s State of the Union address, is very close in the latest Iowa poll. (Getty)
We’re just 14 days from the primary season’s first contest in Iowa, and a new poll from that state is showing a much tighter race than we’d seen before. The Des Moines Register poll, nationally top-rated for accuracy by FiveThirtyEight, shows Hillary Clinton’s lead almost evaporating against Bernie Sanders, with Martin O’Malley far behind. New Hampshire polls, meanwhile, still strongly lean Sanders, according to RealClearPolitics. The betting markets (according to PredictWise) and Iowa FiveThirtyEight forecasts favor Hillary.
Here’s what you need to know:
Iowa
Bernie Sanders, seen here at the First in the South DInner, is within striking distance in Iowa. (Getty)
The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows Hillary with just a 2-point lead, 42 percent to 40 percent, with Martin O’Malley at 4 percent. This is a 6-point slide for Hillary but a gain of only 3 for Sanders and flat for O’Malley, suggesting that a decisive percentage of voters aren’t abandoning Hillary outright but just re-evaluating the options. A potential bad sign for Sanders: 27 percent of his support comes from the three counties holding the state’s major universities. Since delegates are assigned in Iowa based on precincts instead of overall voter percentages, Bernie’s condensed support may mean far fewer delegates than his polling numbers would suggest.
In polling averages provided by RealClearPolitics, Clinton maintains a 4-point lead, 46.8 to 42.8, with O’Malley at 5.2 percent.
Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Hillary Clinton: 46.8%
- Bernie Sanders: 42.8%
- Martin O’Malley: 5.2%
FiveThirtyEight, which utilizes factors beyond polls in its predictions, gives Hillary Clinton an 82 percent chance to take the state, with Sanders at 18 percent and O’Malley at less than 1 percent. (Due to rounding, the sum of the averages exceeds 100.)
FiveThirtyEight Forecast for Iowa
New Hampshire
Martin O’Malley, seen here in Charleston, South Carolina, lags far behind nationally and in state polls. (Getty)
Using polls from periods ranging from January 2 to January 10, Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by 6.2 points, 48.8 percent to 42.6 percent, with O’Malley holding 3 percent. Sanders’s largest lead, 14 points via Monmouth poll, is also the most recent, and has the second largest sample.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Bernie Sanders: 48.8%
- Hillary Clinton: 42.6%
- Martin O’Malley: 3%
FiveThirtyEight, however, still favors Hillary, 57 percent to 43 percent. A possible reason: voting results from previous states have been hugely influential in the races to come, and the sunny projection they show for Clinton in Iowa certainly impacts their model.
FiveThirtyEight Forecast for New Hampshire
Click the “next page” button below for a breakdown of the national polls and a look at the GOP primary schedule.