Democratic Polls for Jan. 14: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

The Rest of the Country

Martin O'Malley polls, Martin O'Malley New Hampshire polls, Martin O'Malley Iowa polls

Martin O’Malley, seen here at the last Democratic debate, is a long shot for the nomination.

Clinton maintains a national lead according to RealClearPolitics, with 43.8 percent of the vote giving her an 8.6-point lead over Sanders’s 39.7 percent, with O’Malley polling at an average of 2.3 percent. However, it’s important to note that national polls can be neutral or even negative indicators according to FiveThirtyEight, and that voters polled for these national polls may feel very differently (or not even have their preferred candidate still in the race) when their turn to vote comes.

National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Hillary Clinton: 43.8%
  • Bernie Sanders: 39.7%
  • Martin O’Malley: 2.3%

While FiveThirtyEight does not keep a national prediction and isn’t using their model for South Carolina or Nevada due to a lack of sufficient recent polling, their weighted polling averages put Clinton on top, 66 percent to 23 percent in South Carolina and 50.3 percent to 28.2 percent in Nevada. Again, these votes are more than one month away, and a lot can change between now and then.

The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show a fall of about 1 percent per day over the week for Clinton, but she remains at an 81 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Sanders has risen at about the same rate, to a current 18 percent shot at taking the nomination, with Martin O’Malley flat at 1 percent since early December.

News of the Day

  • When asked by CNN whether he was surprised that the polls were tightening, former President and prospective First Gentleman Bill Clinton responded, “I am surprised it didn’t happen 60 days ago.”
  • Progressive magazine The Nation endorsed Bernie Sanders on Thursday.

  • Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule

    Debate Schedule

    South Carolina: January 17, NBC

    Wisconsin: February 11, PBS

    Florida: March 9, Univision

    Iowa: February 1

    New Hampshire: February 9

    Nevada: February 20

    South Carolina: February 27

    Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
    Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1

    Kansas, Louisiana: March 5

    Maine: March 6

    Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8

    Northern Mariana Islands: March 12

    Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15

    Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22

    Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26

    Wisconsin: April 5

    Wyoming: April 9

    New York: April 19

    Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

    Indiana: May 3

    West Virginia: May 10

    Kentucky, Oregon: May 17

    California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7

    Washington, D.C.: June 14

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