The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted by Seltzer and Company has a reputation for developing the most accurate picture of presidential primary races. The poll has FiveThirtyEight’s highest accuracy rating and often spots trends beats other polls by a long shot in predicting the ultimate winner. When their first poll for 2016 dropped on Thursday, it offered a clear picture in a previously steady race that had been rocked by recent polling upsets.
According to the poll, Hillary Clinton, long the Iowa favorite, leads Bernie Sanders by just two points, 42 percent to 40 percent. Martin O’Malley comes in at a distant third, with 4 percent of the vote. Sanders leads Clinton 59 percent to 27 percent among people younger than 45; Clinton leads Sanders 56 percent to 26 percent among likely Democratic caucusgoers 65 or older.
Des Moines Register Poll
- Hillary Clinton: 42%
- Bernie Sanders: 40%
- Martin O’Malley: 4%