New Hampshire
Martin O’Malley, here in South Carolina, is a long shot for either of the first two states and in the national race. (Getty)
If the polling holds out, New Hampshire is Sanders’s to lose. A new Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University poll shows Sanders with a 16-point lead, 55 percent to 39 percent, with O’Malley taking 2. It’s the third poll in a week to show a Sanders lead of at least 15 points, and of the seven polls making up the RealClearPolitics New Hampshire average, Sanders leads six by more than the margin of error, with the seventh giving Sanders a smaller lead.
Sanders leads in the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls by 12.8 points, with 52.4 percent to Clinton’s 39.6, with O’Malley holding 2.6 percent.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Bernie Sanders: 53.3%
- Hillary Clinton: 38.6%
- Martin O’Malley: 2.6%
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast, favors Sanders 69 percent to 31 percent. In their polls-only model, Sanders rises to an 89 percent favorite, compared to Clinton’s 11.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire
The Rest of the Country
Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay claims federal investigators are “ready to indict” Hillary Clinton. (Getty)
Three new national polls came out, all showing double-digit leads for Clinton. The ABC/Washington Post poll shows a 55-36 (19-point) advantage over Sanders, while CNN/ORC gives 14 points (52-38) and Fox News is at 12 points (49-37).
The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 13.2 points at 51.2 percent, with Sanders taking 38 and O’Malley taking 2.2.
National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Hillary Clinton: 52.5%
- Bernie Sanders: 37.2%
- Martin O’Malley: 2.2%
The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton at an 81 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders at 19 percent and Martin O’Malley off the board.
News of the Day
Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
Wisconsin: February 11, PBS
Florida: March 9, Univision
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
Nevada: February 20
South Carolina: February 27
Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1
Kansas, Louisiana: March 5
Maine: March 6
Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8
Northern Mariana Islands: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26
Wisconsin: April 5
Wyoming: April 9
New York: April 19
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
West Virginia: May 10
Kentucky, Oregon: May 17
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7
Washington, D.C.: June 14
