Democratic Polls for Jan. 21: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders polls, Bernie Sanders New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders Iowa

Long-shot Democratic candidate marches with New Hampshire leader Bernie Sanders in South Carolina.

A new poll by CNN/WMUR shows Sanders with a 27-point lead over Clinton, 60 percent to 33 percent, with O’Malley taking 1 percent. In an MSNBC interview, a Clinton staffer dismissed the poll as “an outlier,” not entirely incorrectly: Sanders’s lead is almost double his highest in other recent polls. However, it does follow a trend where no New Hampshire poll since January 6 shows a Sanders lead. Also, CNN/WMUR shows a sharp rise in favorability, from 66 percent last June to 91 percent in their most recent poll.

The new poll shifts the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls to a Sanders lead of 11.6 points, with 51.6 percent to Clinton’s 39, with O’Malley holding 2.8 percent.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Bernie Sanders: 51.6%
  • Hillary Clinton: 39%
  • Martin O’Malley: 2.8%

FiveThirtyEight also shifts their projection to Sanders, 57 percent to 43 percent, in its polls-plus forecast. In their polls-only model, Sanders rises to an 83 percent favorite, compared to Clinton’s 17.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire

  • Bernie Sanders: 57%
  • Hillary Clinton: 43%

  • The Rest of the Country

    Planned Parenthood, Planned Parenthood endorsement, Democratic polls

    Planned Parenthood, headed by Cecile Richards, defended itself against charges from Sanders that it was “part of the establishment.” (Getty)

    Wednesday’s new Monmouth poll shows Clinton with a 15-point national lead, with 52 percent of the vote to Sanders’s 37. Compared to Clinton’s 25-point lead in the NBC News poll taken before Sunday’s debate, this poll (with Sunday and Monday included in the polling period) shows a significant gain for Sanders. The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 13.2 points at 51.2 percent, with Sanders taking 38 and O’Malley taking 2.2.

    National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

    • Hillary Clinton: 51.2%
    • Bernie Sanders: 38%
    • Martin O’Malley: 2.2%

    The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton falling 3 points to an 82 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Sanders rose 3 points to 17 percent, with Martin O’Malley staying at 1 percent.

    News of the Day

  • In an interview with Rachel Maddow, Sanders referred to the Human Rights Campaign and Planned Parenthood as “part of the establishment” after both groups endorsed Clinton.

  • Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule

    Debate Schedule

    Wisconsin: February 11, PBS

    Florida: March 9, Univision

    Iowa: February 1

    New Hampshire: February 9

    Nevada: February 20

    South Carolina: February 27

    Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
    Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1

    Kansas, Louisiana: March 5

    Maine: March 6

    Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8

    Northern Mariana Islands: March 12

    Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15

    Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22

    Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26

    Wisconsin: April 5

    Wyoming: April 9

    New York: April 19

    Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

    Indiana: May 3

    West Virginia: May 10

    Kentucky, Oregon: May 17

    California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7

    Washington, D.C.: June 14