We’re just 17 days from the Iowa caucus, and new polls are shaking up the picture of the race. One of the nation’s most reliable polls shows Ted Cruz’s lead on Donald Trump fading in Iowa, with Marco Rubio third. Trump continues to lead in New Hampshire and nationally, with Cruz running second nationally and Rubio leading a wide-open runner-up field in New Hampshire.
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
The Des Moines Register poll released Wednesday shows that Cruz maintains a 3-point lead over Trump, 25 percent to 22 percent, with Rubio taking 12 percent and Ben Carson 11. A new Gravis poll, however, has Trump ahead of Cruz by 6 percent, 34 to 28 percent, with all other competitors in single digits. This pushes the polling averages collected by RealClearPolitics into a Trump lead of 27.3 percent, with Cruz trailing at 26.9 percent, Rubio at 11.9 and Ben Carson at 9.
Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
The FiveThirtyEight model, which weights polls by methodology and accuracy, still favors Cruz, at 51 percent, to 29 percent for Trump and 14 percent for Rubio.
The betting markets as aggregated by PredictWise have reacted to the Gravis poll with a noticeable drop for Cruz, down from 76 percent to 63 percent. Trump rises to 28 percent from 18, with Marco Rubio at 7 percent and Ben Carson at 1.
With no new New Hampshire polls released Thursday RealClearPolitics averages are unchanged, showing Trump with a 17-point lead over Rubio, 30.2 percent to 13.2 percent, with Kasich third at 11.2, Cruz at 10.8, Chris Christie at 9.5, and Jeb Bush at 8.7. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include the NH1/Reach poll, has Trump with 29.1 percent to Rubio’s 14.2 percent, with Cruz at 11.9, Christie at 11.3, Kasich at 10.5, and Bush at 7.8.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight is also favoring Trump, offering a 39 percent chance that he takes the state to 21 percent for Rubio, 13 percent for Cruz, 11 percent for Kasich and 7 percent for Christie.
The PredictWise betting markets favor Trump in New Hampshire at 57 percent, up from 49. Rubio is at 14 percent, followed by Christie at 8.
Click the “next page” button below for a breakdown of the national polls and a look at the GOP primary schedule.
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