With only 25 days until the Iowa caucus, each day on the campaign trail is more critical than the last. A new poll from New Hampshire released January 6 shows that Donald Trump maintains a strong lead in New Hampshire, with single-state gamblers like Chris Christie and John Kasich seeing their already long-shot chances take a slight dip. While there’s no new polling action to discuss in Iowa, the betting markets (provided by PredictWise) both on the state and the nation have moved in interesting ways.
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
According to Huffington Post’s poll aggregator, Ted Cruz maintains his lead in Iowa, with 30.8 percent of the vote to Donald Trump’s 28.4 and Marco Rubio’s 12.5. RealClearPolitics shows roughly the same numbers in its polling aggregation, with a slight increase for Cruz to 31.8 percent and a slight dip for Trump and Rubio. Ben Carson and Jeb Bush remain minor threats, holding 9 and 4.8 percent shares respectively on RealClearPolitics
and 7.7 and 4.7 on HuffPo Pollster.
PredictWise’s betting markets for Iowa are a little more dynamic. While Ted Cruz remains steady at a 79 percent probability, Trump has risen to 19 percent from Wednesday’s 17 percent, likely due to New Hampshire news we’ll discuss in more detail later. Trump’s rise not coming at Cruz’s expense is bad news for the rest of the candidates, as Rubio drops to 1 percent for a third-place tie with Jeb Bush and everyone else showing no chance.
Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
Public Policy Polling released new results that look to be good news for Trump: He increases his lead over polling runner-up Marco Rubio since the last poll, with 29 percent to Rubio’s 15, with Cruz holding steady at 10.
With Rubio and Cruz not moving, Trump’s support is obviously coming from those who can least afford to lose it. If these polling results hold, what had been a fairly open race is constricting: compared to the most recent previous poll, Christie and Kasich have dropped 1 and 2 points, respectively, since the last poll, both polling at 11 percent (still a tie for third), and already near the bottom of the polls, Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul saw their respective 5 and 4 drop to a discouraging 4 and 3. Jeb Bush, however, managed to pick up 1 point since the most recent poll, rising to 10.
RealClearPolitics updated their polling averages early January 7 to register an average 13.2-point lead for Trump at 27, with Rubio at 13.8, Cruz at 11.5, Christie at 11.3, and Bush at 10. HuffPo Pollster, which takes a wider view, is more optimistic for the challengers, with 27.5 percent for Trump to Rubio’s 14.7, Cruz’s 12.8, and Christie’s 12.7.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
While the raw numbers are good for Trump, the voter characteristics from the latest poll don’t favor him as much. Trump is 8th of 12 in favorability rankings, polling at just 5 percent favorability (49 percent favor to 44 percent disfavor). His lead drops to just 2 points over Rubio in top-three polling (featuring Trump, Rubio, and Cruz), and he loses to Rubio (52-40) and Cruz (46-39) head-to-head, with only a slight margin over Bush (46-45). This suggests that it’s not Trump’s overall popularity but the split in the “Establishment” field that’s led to his advantage.
The PredictWise market aggregation did make a slight turn upward for Trump on this news, though: he’s up from 45 to 46 percent since January 6, with Marco Rubio falling from 18 to 17 percent to third and Chris Christie rising from 17 to 18 percent and second place. Ted Cruz remains steady at 14 percent, with the rest of the field at 2 percent or less.
The Rest of the Country
The latest national poll was released January 5, with Trump leading at 35 percent to 18 percent for Ted Cruz, 13 for Marco Rubio, and the rest of the field in single digits. RealClearPolitics has month-long averages placing Trump at 35.3 percent, Cruz at 20, and Rubio at 11. Despite lagging in both primary states, Ben Carson retains a strong national showing at 9.7%
National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)
The bettors, as aggregated by PredictWise, still favor Rubio nationally , with Trump getting a one-point bump since Wednesday, likely as a result of improved New Hampshire polling.
News of the Day
GOP Primary & Debate Schedule
South Carolina: January 14, Fox Business
Iowa: January 28, Fox News
New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News
South Carolina: February 13, CBS
Texas: February 26, NBC/Telemundo/National Review
Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News
Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
South Carolina: February 20
Nevada: February 23
Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5
Puerto Rico: March 6
Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8
Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15
Virgin Islands: March 19
American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22
Wisconsin: April 5
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10
Oregon: May 17
Washington: May 24
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7