GOP Polls for Jan. 7: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Donald Trump, Donald Trump polls, Donald Trump CNN

Donald Trump, seen here in an interview with Wolf Blitzer, leads the New Hampshire and national polls. (Getty)

With only 25 days until the Iowa caucus, each day on the campaign trail is more critical than the last. A new poll from New Hampshire released January 6 shows that Donald Trump maintains a strong lead in New Hampshire, with single-state gamblers like Chris Christie and John Kasich seeing their already long-shot chances take a slight dip. While there’s no new polling action to discuss in Iowa, the betting markets (provided by PredictWise) both on the state and the nation have moved in interesting ways.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:


Iowa

Ted Cruz, Ted Cruz polls, Ted Cruz Iowa

Ted Cruz remains the favorite to win the GOP Iowa caucus. (Getty)

According to Huffington Post’s poll aggregator, Ted Cruz maintains his lead in Iowa, with 30.8 percent of the vote to Donald Trump’s 28.4 and Marco Rubio’s 12.5. RealClearPolitics shows roughly the same numbers in its polling aggregation, with a slight increase for Cruz to 31.8 percent and a slight dip for Trump and Rubio. Ben Carson and Jeb Bush remain minor threats, holding 9 and 4.8 percent shares respectively on RealClearPolitics
and 7.7 and 4.7 on HuffPo Pollster.

PredictWise’s betting markets for Iowa are a little more dynamic. While Ted Cruz remains steady at a 79 percent probability, Trump has risen to 19 percent from Wednesday’s 17 percent, likely due to New Hampshire news we’ll discuss in more detail later. Trump’s rise not coming at Cruz’s expense is bad news for the rest of the candidates, as Rubio drops to 1 percent for a third-place tie with Jeb Bush and everyone else showing no chance.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Ted Cruz: 31.8%
  • Donald Trump: 27.8%
  • Marco Rubio: 11.3%
  • Ben Carson: 9%
  • Jeb Bush: 4.8%

  • New Hampshire

    Donald Trump, Donald Trump polls, Donald Trump New Hampshire

    Donald Trump campaigns in New Hampshire, where recent polls show him maintaining his lead. (Getty)

    Public Policy Polling released new results that look to be good news for Trump: He increases his lead over polling runner-up Marco Rubio since the last poll, with 29 percent to Rubio’s 15, with Cruz holding steady at 10.

    With Rubio and Cruz not moving, Trump’s support is obviously coming from those who can least afford to lose it. If these polling results hold, what had been a fairly open race is constricting: compared to the most recent previous poll, Christie and Kasich have dropped 1 and 2 points, respectively, since the last poll, both polling at 11 percent (still a tie for third), and already near the bottom of the polls, Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul saw their respective 5 and 4 drop to a discouraging 4 and 3. Jeb Bush, however, managed to pick up 1 point since the most recent poll, rising to 10.

    RealClearPolitics updated their polling averages early January 7 to register an average 13.2-point lead for Trump at 27, with Rubio at 13.8, Cruz at 11.5, Christie at 11.3, and Bush at 10. HuffPo Pollster, which takes a wider view, is more optimistic for the challengers, with 27.5 percent for Trump to Rubio’s 14.7, Cruz’s 12.8, and Christie’s 12.7.

    New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 27%
  • Marco Rubio: 13.8%
  • Ted Cruz: 11.5%
  • Chris Christie: 11.3%
  • John Kasich: 10%
  • Jeb Bush: 8.3%
  • Ben Carson: 5%
  • Carly Fiorina: 4.8%
  • Rand Paul: 3.8%
  • While the raw numbers are good for Trump, the voter characteristics from the latest poll don’t favor him as much. Trump is 8th of 12 in favorability rankings, polling at just 5 percent favorability (49 percent favor to 44 percent disfavor). His lead drops to just 2 points over Rubio in top-three polling (featuring Trump, Rubio, and Cruz), and he loses to Rubio (52-40) and Cruz (46-39) head-to-head, with only a slight margin over Bush (46-45). This suggests that it’s not Trump’s overall popularity but the split in the “Establishment” field that’s led to his advantage.

    The PredictWise market aggregation did make a slight turn upward for Trump on this news, though: he’s up from 45 to 46 percent since January 6, with Marco Rubio falling from 18 to 17 percent to third and Chris Christie rising from 17 to 18 percent and second place. Ted Cruz remains steady at 14 percent, with the rest of the field at 2 percent or less.


    The Rest of the Country

    Marco Rubio, Marco Rubio polls, latest Marco Rubio polls

    Marco Rubio remains the betting markets’ favorite. (Getty)

    The latest national poll was released January 5, with Trump leading at 35 percent to 18 percent for Ted Cruz, 13 for Marco Rubio, and the rest of the field in single digits. RealClearPolitics has month-long averages placing Trump at 35.3 percent, Cruz at 20, and Rubio at 11. Despite lagging in both primary states, Ben Carson retains a strong national showing at 9.7%

    National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 35.3%
  • Ted Cruz: 20%
  • Marco Rubio: 11%
  • Ben Carson: 9.7%
  • The bettors, as aggregated by PredictWise, still favor Rubio nationally , with Trump getting a one-point bump since Wednesday, likely as a result of improved New Hampshire polling.

    News of the Day

  • Several candidates reacted to North Korea’s hydrogen bomb claims, with Donald Trump suggesting China handle it, Ted Cruz calling to mind his criticism of the Iran nuclear deal, and Marco Rubio blaming “failed Obama-Clinton foreign policy.”
  • President Obama is holding a town hall on CNN Thursday to discuss his planned gun control actions, which have, as expected, proven unpopular with the Republican candidates.

  • GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

    Debate Schedule

    South Carolina: January 14, Fox Business

    Iowa: January 28, Fox News

    New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

    South Carolina: February 13, CBS

    Texas: February 26, NBC/Telemundo/National Review

    Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

    Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

    Primary Schedule
    Iowa: February 1

    New Hampshire: February 9

    South Carolina: February 20

    Nevada: February 23

    Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
    Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

    Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

    Puerto Rico: March 6

    Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

    Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

    Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

    Virgin Islands: March 19

    American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

    Wisconsin: April 5

    Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

    Indiana: May 3

    Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

    Oregon: May 17

    Washington: May 24

    California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7


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