A new CNN poll shows Trump opening up a 20-point lead on Cruz, 34 to 14 percent, with Rubio and Bush tying for third at 10. This poll contradicts an American Research Group poll from the same period, showing Ohio governor John Kasich pulling to within 7 of Trump, 27 percent to 20 percent. The forecasters at FiveThirtyEight, for the record, give American Research Group a C- and CNN’s polling partners at the University of New Hampshire a B.
The new CNN poll shifts the RealClearPolitics averages closer to their previous averages before the outlier American Research Group poll. Trump continues to lead with 32.2 percent of the vote, a 19.9-point lead over Kasich’s 13.3, with Rubio third at 11.5, Cruz at 10.8, and Chris Christie at 8.3. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include a poll by NH1/Reach, has Trump with 30.8 percent to Rubio’s 12.4 percent, with Kasich at 12.2, Cruz at 11.3, and Christie at 9.6.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 46 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 17 percent, Kasich at 14, and Cruz at 13. Since FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primary results, Trump’s good news in the previous state can only help. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 62 percent, with no one else in double digits.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump rises to 71 percent, nearly as strong a favorite as Cruz was in Iowa at the beginning of the month. Ted Cruz lags far behind at 10 percent.
The Rest of the Country
On Wednesday, Monmouth University released a national poll showing Trump with a 19-point lead over Cruz, 36 percent to 17 percent, with Rubio at 11 and Carson at 8. This is mixed news for Trump: he’s down 5 percent from the most recent Monmouth poll.
National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)
The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump at a new high of 41 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 30 percent and Cruz holding third with 16 percent. Jeb Bush takes 10 percent, with Chris Christie at 2 percent and John Kasich 1.
News of the Day
GOP Primary & Debate Schedule
Iowa: January 28, Fox News
New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News
South Carolina: February 13, CBS
Texas: February 26, CNN
Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News
Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
South Carolina: February 20
Nevada: February 23
Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5
Puerto Rico: March 6
Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8
Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15
Virgin Islands: March 19
American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22
Wisconsin: April 5
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10
Oregon: May 17
Washington: May 24
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7