GOP Polls for Jan. 21: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

New Hampshire

Marco Rubio polls, Marco Rubio Iowa, Marco Rubio New Hampshire

Marco Rubio, once the polling runner-up and betting favorite in New Hampshire, has slipped considerably. (Getty)

A new CNN poll shows Trump opening up a 20-point lead on Cruz, 34 to 14 percent, with Rubio and Bush tying for third at 10. This poll contradicts an American Research Group poll from the same period, showing Ohio governor John Kasich pulling to within 7 of Trump, 27 percent to 20 percent. The forecasters at FiveThirtyEight, for the record, give American Research Group a C- and CNN’s polling partners at the University of New Hampshire a B.

The new CNN poll shifts the RealClearPolitics averages closer to their previous averages before the outlier American Research Group poll. Trump continues to lead with 32.2 percent of the vote, a 19.9-point lead over Kasich’s 13.3, with Rubio third at 11.5, Cruz at 10.8, and Chris Christie at 8.3. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include a poll by NH1/Reach, has Trump with 30.8 percent to Rubio’s 12.4 percent, with Kasich at 12.2, Cruz at 11.3, and Christie at 9.6.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 32.2%
  • John Kasich: 13.3%
  • Marco Rubio: 11.5%
  • Ted Cruz: 10.8%
  • Chris Christie: 8.3%
  • FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 46 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 17 percent, Kasich at 14, and Cruz at 13. Since FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primary results, Trump’s good news in the previous state can only help. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 62 percent, with no one else in double digits.

    FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

  • Donald Trump: 46%
  • Marco Rubio: 17%
  • John Kasich: 14%
  • Ted Cruz: 13%
  • In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump rises to 71 percent, nearly as strong a favorite as Cruz was in Iowa at the beginning of the month. Ted Cruz lags far behind at 10 percent.

    The Rest of the Country

    Ted Cruz polls, Ted Cruz Iowa, Ted Cruz New Hampshire

    Ted Cruz, seen here campaigning in South Carolina, remains a strong candidate nationally. (Getty)

    On Wednesday, Monmouth University released a national poll showing Trump with a 19-point lead over Cruz, 36 percent to 17 percent, with Rubio at 11 and Carson at 8. This is mixed news for Trump: he’s down 5 percent from the most recent Monmouth poll.

    The RealClearPolitics polling averages give Trump a 16-point lead at 34.8 percent, with Cruz taking 18.8 percent, Rubio at 11.6 and Ben Carson at 8.8.

    National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 34.8%
  • Ted Cruz: 18.8%
  • Marco Rubio: 11.6%
  • Ben Carson: 8.8%
  • The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump at a new high of 41 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 30 percent and Cruz holding third with 16 percent. Jeb Bush takes 10 percent, with Chris Christie at 2 percent and John Kasich 1.

    News of the Day

  • Longtime Senator and former Republican nominee Bob Dole didn’t outright endorse Trump, but told the New York Times the current frontrunner would do better than the “wholesale losses” the party would suffer with Cruz.
  • Ted Cruz said in a press conference that the Republican establishment was “unifying behind Trump”, with “conservatives coming together and unifying behind our campaign.”

  • GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

    Debate Schedule

    Iowa: January 28, Fox News

    New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

    South Carolina: February 13, CBS

    Texas: February 26, CNN

    Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

    Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

    Primary Schedule
    Iowa: February 1

    New Hampshire: February 9

    South Carolina: February 20

    Nevada: February 23

    Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
    Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

    Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

    Puerto Rico: March 6

    Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

    Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

    Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

    Virgin Islands: March 19

    American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

    Wisconsin: April 5

    Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

    Indiana: May 3

    Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

    Oregon: May 17

    Washington: May 24

    California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7