GOP Polls for Jan. 17: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire


The Rest of the Country

Donald Trump polls, Marco Rubio polls, GOP nomination

Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, here at Thursday’s debate, lead the betting markets for the nomination. (Getty)

Thursday’s national poll shows Trump with a 13-point lead over Cruz at 33 percent to 20 percent, with Rubio polling at 13 percent and Ben Carson 12. This slightly lowers Trump’s RealClearPolitics average of 34.5 percent, to Cruz’s 19.3, Rubio’s 11.8, and Carson’s 9. Remember, though, that national polls feature voters who won’t formally make their selection for some time, at which point their current choice may not still be in the race. National polls are usually seen as non-predictive for this reason.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 34.5%
  • Ted Cruz: 19.3%
  • Marco Rubio: %
  • Ben Carson: 9%
  • The PredictWise betting aggregation show a continued Trump climb, rising to 39 percent. After dipping from 34 to 32 percent Saturday, onetime frontrunner Rubio drops again to 30 percent today, in what could be a grim trend. Cruz runs third with 18 percent, with Bush holding 10 percent and Christie 3.

    News of the Day

  • An attempted attack on Ted Cruz backfired for Donald Trump at the Tea Party Coalition convention, showing Cruz’s support is still strong with the right-wing constituency.
  • For his part, Ted Cruz apologized on Saturday for his jab at “New York values” from Thursday’s debate.
  • John Kasich admitted to Rita Cosby that a poor showing in New Hampshire would mean “the ballgame is over,” but predicted he would be the nominee if he came out as “a major story.”

  • GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

    Debate Schedule

    Iowa: January 28, Fox News

    New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

    South Carolina: February 13, CBS

    Texas: February 26, NBC/Telemundo/National Review

    Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

    Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

    Primary Schedule
    Iowa: February 1

    New Hampshire: February 9

    South Carolina: February 20

    Nevada: February 23

    Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
    Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

    Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

    Puerto Rico: March 6

    Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

    Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

    Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

    Virgin Islands: March 19

    American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

    Wisconsin: April 5

    Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

    Indiana: May 3

    Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

    Oregon: May 17

    Washington: May 24

    California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7


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