GOP Polls for Jan. 16: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Donald Trump, here campaigning in Iowa, has the lead in national and New Hampshire polls. (Getty)

Donald Trump, here campaigning in Iowa, has the lead in national and New Hampshire polls. (Getty)

We’re just 15 days from the Iowa caucus. The impact of Thursday’s debate won’t be seen in the polls for a while, and no organizations released polls Friday. Recent polls show Ted Cruz with a small advantage Donald Trump in Iowa and Marco Rubio third. Trump and Cruz flip nationally, with New Hampshire showing a strong Trump lead and Rubio leading the runner-up race by a nose in New Hampshire.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Cruz, here campaigning in South Carolina, holds the Des Moines Register polling edge in Iowa, though other recent polls disagree. (Getty)

Cruz, here campaigning in South Carolina, holds the Des Moines Register polling edge in Iowa, though other recent polls disagree. (Getty)

According to the highly regarded poll from the Des Moines Register, Cruz leads Trump 25 percent to 22 percent, with Rubio at 12 percent and Ben Carson at 11. Trump, however, takes the lead in the latest Gravis and Public Policy Polling releases. The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 0.4-point lead over Cruz at 27.3 to 26.9 percent, with Rubio running third at 11.9 percent and Carson fourth at 9.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 27.3%
  • Ted Cruz: 26.9%
  • Marco Rubio: 11.9%
  • Ben Carson: 9%
  • FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account when forecasting, shows Cruz with a 51 percent chance of taking Iowa, with Trump at 29 percent and Rubio at 14.

    FiveThirtyEight Model

  • Ted Cruz: 51%
  • Donald Trump: 29%
  • Rubio: 13%
  • The betting markets as aggregated by Predictwise took a sharp downward turn for Cruz in the past week, but he rose to 63 percent from 58, still far off his high of 79 percent but stopping a serious downward trend. Trump fell slightly from 33 to 31 percent, with Rubio taking 4 percent and Carson tying Jeb Bush at 1.


    New Hampshire

    Marco Rubio, here at Thursday's GOP debate, takes the runner-up position in most New Hampshire polls. (Getty)

    Marco Rubio, here at Thursday’s GOP debate, takes the runner-up position in most New Hampshire polls. (Getty)

    With the most recent New Hampshire poll released January 11, the RealClearPolitics averages remain consistent, showing Trump with a 17.6-point lead over Rubio, 30.4 percent to 12.8 percent, with Kasich third at 11.2, Cruz at 11, Chris Christie at 9.2, and Jeb Bush at 8.4. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include the NH1/Reach poll, has Trump with 29.1 percent to Rubio’s 14.2 percent, with Cruz at 11.9, Christie at 11.3, Kasich at 10.5, and Bush at 7.8.

    New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 30.4%
  • Marco Rubio: 14.2%
  • John Kasich: 11.2%
  • Ted Cruz: 11%
  • Chris Christie: 9.2%
  • Jeb Bush: 8.4%
  • FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 39 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 21 percent, Cruz at 13, and Kasich at 11. This is significant because FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primaries, meaning Trump still has a solid projection even after his assumed loss in Iowa.

    FiveThirtyEight Model

  • Donald Trump: 39%
  • Marco Rubio: 21%
  • Ted Cruz: 13%
  • John Kasich: 11%
  • The PredictWise betting averages show Trump continuing his month-long climb, with a 56 percent chance to take the state. Rubio dips one point to with 14 percent, then Cruz at 11 percent, with everyone else in single digits.

    Click below for a national polling roundup and a discussion of today’s news.


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