There are only seven days remaining before the Iowa caucus. Recent polls by Fox News and Reuters/Ipsos show a commanding national lead for Donald Trump despite major conservative opposition. Trump is also gaining, and taking the lead, in Iowa, with former frontrunner Ted Cruz still putting up a strong challenge. Marco Rubio, once the betting favorite nationally and the longtime New Hampshire polling runner-up, picked up a major endorsement in Iowa but is slumping in New Hampshire polls, including the latest. Trump retains the New Hampshire lead in the newest polls in New Hampshire. Trump also holds the national betting lead, as aggregated by PredictWise.
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
On Sunday, the Des Moines Register, Iowa’s most prominent paper, endorsed Marco Rubio on Sunday, saying that the Florida Senator had “the potential to chart a new direction for the party, and perhaps the nation, with his message of restoring the American dream.” While five of their last nine endorsements have gone on to the Republican nomination, FiveThirtyEight reports an average 3 percent gain in Iowa vote share between pre-endorsement polls and actual caucus results, which won’t nearly be enough for Rubio.
A recent poll by CNN shows Trump with an 11-point lead on Cruz, 37 percent to 26 percent, with Rubio the only other candidate in double digits at 14. For Cruz, though, there’s a potentially critical result from deeper in the poll: while CNN controlled for “likely caucus-goers,” when only including those who recently had caucused, Cruz led 30 percent to Trump’s 28. Another recent poll from CBS News/YouGov reports a 5-point lead for Trump, 39 to Cruz’s 34 percent, with 13 for Rubio.
The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 2.6-point lead over Cruz at 29 to 26.4 percent, with Rubio running third at 12.2 percent.
Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account for its “polls-plus” forecast, shows Cruz dropping to a 48 percent chance of taking Iowa, still the favorite but no longer odds-on. Trump has a 36 percent chance, with Rubio at 11. The polls-only forecast, which weights polls based on methodology and past accuracy, favors Trump with a 50 percent chance, compared to 39 for Cruz and single digits for everyone else.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Model
In the as aggregated by Predictwise, Trump is the odds-on favorite at 57 percent. Cruz drops to 33 percent, with no one else in double digits.
Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.