New Hampshire
Ted Cruz memorabilia sits on a table in New Hampshire, where the Senator is surging in the polls. (Getty)
New polls by CBS News/YouGov and Fox News both show substantial leads for Trump, with a crowded runner-up field behind him. With CBS News/YouGov, Trump sits at 34 percent, an 18-point lead over Cruz’s 16 percent, with 14 percent for Rubio and 10 for Ohio governor John Kasich. Fox News has Trump at 31 percent, a 17-point lead over the 14 percent share for Cruz, with Rubio at 13 and Kasich at 9. Either way, the 20-point, runner-up-by-7 showing for Kasich in the American Research Group is looking more and more like an outlier.
According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has a 18.6-point lead with 32 percent of the vote, with Kasich at 13.4, Cruz third at 11.4, and Rubio at 10.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 46 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 14 percent, Kasich at 13, and Cruz at 12. Since FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primary results, Trump’s good news in the previous state can only help. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 62 percent, with no one else in double digits.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump is a 68 percent favorite, while Marco Rubio climbs to 10 percent, the only other candidate in double digits.
The Rest of the Country
Conservative pundit Glenn Beck endorsed Ted Cruz on Saturday. (Getty)
Saturday’s national poll from Fox News shows Trump with a 14-point lead over Cruz, 34 percent to 20 percent, with Marco Rubio taking 11. Reuters/Ipsos was even more favorable, giving Trump 40.6 percent of the vote, a 30.1-point lead over Cruz’s 10.5 percent, with Carson at 9.7, Jeb Bush at 9.2 and Marco Rubio at 7.2.
The RealClearPolitics polling averages did not include the Reuters/Ipsos poll, but the Fox News poll shifts the averages to give Trump a 15.8-point lead at 34.6 percent, with Cruz taking 18.8 percent and Rubio at 11.6.
National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)
The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump at a new high of 45 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 30 percent and Cruz holding third with 12 percent. Jeb Bush takes 10 percent, with Chris Christie at 2 and John Kasich at 1.
News of the Day
GOP Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
Iowa: January 28, Fox News
New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News
South Carolina: February 13, CBS
Texas: February 26, CNN
Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News
Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio
Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
South Carolina: February 20
Nevada: February 23
Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5
Puerto Rico: March 6
Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8
Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15
Virgin Islands: March 19
American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22
Wisconsin: April 5
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10
Oregon: May 17
Washington: May 24
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7
