New Hampshire
Martin O’Malley, here campaigning in Iowa, has yet to establish national polling traction with primary season about to begin. (Getty)
Two new polls show Sanders’s lead well in hand. UMass-Lowell/7News puts Sanders at a whopping 31-point lead, 61-30, while CNN/WMUR gives Sanders a 23-point, 57-34 lead. Keep in mind, though, that two polls from last week showed Sanders at just 8 and 7 over Clinton.
Sanders leads in the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls by 18 points, with 55.5 percent to Clinton’s 37.5, with O’Malley holding 2 percent.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Bernie Sanders: 55.5%
- Hillary Clinton: 37.5%
- Martin O’Malley: 2%
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast favors Sanders 87 percent to 13 percent. In their polls-only model, Sanders rises to a 96 percent favorite, compared to Clinton’s 4.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire
The Rest of the Country
A “Bernie Warrior” shows his support outside an Iowa campaign event. (Getty)
A recent national poll from Investors Business Daily came out Friday showing a 12-point lead for Clinton. This is in keeping with most national polls since the campaign began, and is not particularly predictive information: national polls include voters that won’t cast a ballot or head to the caucus for as many as five months, and a lot can change between now and then.
The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 14.4 points at 51.6 percent, with Sanders taking 37.2 and O’Malley taking 2.2.
National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Hillary Clinton: 51.6%
- Bernie Sanders: 37.2%
- Martin O’Malley: 2.2%
The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton at an 84 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders at 15 percent and Martin O’Malley at 1 percent.
News of the Day
Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
New Hampshire: February 4, MSNBC
Wisconsin: February 11, PBS
Florida: March 9, Univision
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
Nevada: February 20
South Carolina: February 27
Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1
Kansas, Louisiana: March 5
Maine: March 6
Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8
Northern Mariana Islands: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26
Wisconsin: April 5
Wyoming: April 9
New York: April 19
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
West Virginia: May 10
Kentucky, Oregon: May 17
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7
Washington, D.C.: June 14
